State of the System2045 Technical Supplement to the Long-Range Transportation Plan for the St. Louis Region The East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWG) hereby gives public notice that it is the policy of the agency to assure full compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Civil Rights Restoration Act of 1987, Executive Order 12898 on Environmental Justice, and related statutes and regulations in all programs and activities. Title VI requires that no person in the United States of America shall, on the grounds of race, color, sex, or national origin, be excluded from the participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be otherwise subjected to discrimination under any program or activity for which EWG receives federal financial assistance. Any person who believes they have been aggrieved by an unlawful discriminatory practice under Title VI has a right to file a formal complaint with EWG. Any such complaint must be in writing and filed with EWG’s Title VI Coordinator within one hundred eighty (180) days following the date of the alleged discriminatory occurrence. For more information, or to obtain a Title VI Discrimination Complaint Form, please see our web site at http://www.ewgateway.org/TitleVI or call (314) 421-4220 or (618) 274-2750. This publication was supported, in part, by federal funds provided under an award from the U.S. Department of Transportation through the Missouri Department of Transportation and the Illinois Department of Transportation. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Missouri Highways and Transportation Commission, the Illinois Department of Transportation, the Federal Highway Administration, or the Federal Transit Administration. Table of Contents Preface Chapter 1: Introduction and Context 1 Population Trends 2 Table 1: County Population, 1950-2013 2 Table 2: Population Change, Percent, 2010-2013 3 Figure 1: Population Change by County, 1950-2013 3 Map 1: Change in Urbanized Area, 1950-2010 4 Map 2: Population Change by Tract, 2000-2010 5 Figure 2: Age Pyramid, St Louis MSA, 2014 6 Figure 3: Age Pyramid, St Louis MSA, 2045 6 Economic and Employment Trends 7 Table 3: Payroll Employment by County, 2000-2013 7 Table 4: Percent Change Payroll Employment, 2010-2013 7 Figure 4: Unemployment Rate, US and EWG Region, 2005-2014 8 Figure 5: Labor Force and Employment, EWG Region, 2005-2014 8 Table 5: Employment by Sector, St Louis MSA, 1990-2014 9 Table 6: Journey to Work, 2011 9 Chapter 2: State of the Transportation System 11 Preservation 12 Table 7: St Louis Bridges by Census Urbanized Area and Maintenance 12 Figure 6: Percent of Deficient Bridges, 2005-2014 12 Map 3: Deficient Bridges in the St. Louis Region 13 Figure 7: Percent of Deficient Bridges in Missouri and Illinois Counties, 2014 14 Map 4: Pavement Condition, 2013 15 Figure 8: Percent of Acceptable Pavement Conditions by State Maintain Roads, 2007-2013 16 Table 8: Pavement Conditions by State Maintained Roads, 2013 16 Figure 9: Percentage of Acceptable Pavement by County 17 Figure 10: Cost of Deferred Maintenance 17 Table 9: Metro Transit Fleet Conditions, 2013 18 Table 10: Madison County Transit District Transit Fleet Conditions, 2013 18 Bicycling and Walking 19 Map 5: St Louis Bicycle Facilities 20 Figure 11: Gateway Bike Plan Top Count Locations, 2012-2013 22 Human Services Transportation 23 Figure 12: JARC funded Projects FY 2006-FY2012 23 Figure 13: New Freedom Funded Projects FY2006-FY2012 23 Coordinated Roadway Planning 24 Great Streets Initiative 24 Map 6: Great Streets Initiative Project Locations 25 Complete Streets 26 Accessibility and Affordability 26 Map 7: Jobs Accessible by Auto 27 Map 8: of Job Accessibility by Transit 29 Map 9: Household Transit Access 30 Map 10: Percentage of Zero Vehicle Households 31 Map 11: Employment Transit Access 33 Map 12: Jobs-Worker Balance 34 Housing and Transportation: An Index to Assess Affordability 35 Map 13: Housing + Transportation Affordability Index: Places affordable for households at the regional median income, current gasoline prices ($2 438/gallon) 37 Map 14: Housing + Transportation Affordability Index: Places affordable for households at the regional median income, $5 per gallon gasoline prices 38 Map 15: Transportation Affordability Index: Places affordable for households at the regional median income, current gasoline prices, ($2 438/gallon) 40 Map 16: Housing + Transportation Affordability Index: Places affordable for households at the regional median income, current gasoline prices ($2 438/gallon) 43 Map 17: Housing + Transportation Affordability Index: Places affordable for households at the regional median income, $5 per gallon gasoline prices 44 Map 18: Transportation Affordability Index: Places affordable for households at the regional median income, current gasoline prices ($2 438/gallon) 45 Map 19: 2010 Urbanized Area 47 Map 20: Environmental Justice Population by Census Tracts 48 Table 10: Percent of Resident’s Income Spent on Housing and Transportation Costs Combined 49 Safety and Security 50 Table 11: Regional Crash Statistics, 2009-2013 50 Figure 14: Crashes by County, 2009-2013 50 Figure 15: Crash Rate 2009-2013 50 Map 21: Auto Crash Locations, 2009-2013 51 Figure 16: Contributing Factors in Fatal and Disabling Injury Crashes, 2009-2013 52 Map 22: Pedestrian Crash Locations in the city of St Louis, 2009-2013 52 Figure 17: Fatal Accidents with at Least One Pedestrian or Cyclist Death 53 Network Security and Climate Change 53 Regional Mobility 53 Table 12: Travel Time Index, Ratio of peak period travel time to free-flow travel time, 2011 54 Table 13: Change in Travel Time Index, Percent change, 1982 to 2011 54 Figure 18: Travel Time Index, 1982-2011 54 Table 14: 80th Percentile Freeway Planning Time Index 55 Table 15: Annual Hours Delay Per Commuter 55 Congestion Corridors 55 Map 23: Peak Hour Highway Travel Delay-Trip Destination, 2011 56 Map 24: Peak Hour Highway Travel Delay-Trip Destination, 2015 56 Map 25: Peak Hour Highway Travel Delay-Trip Destination, 2045 58 Map 26: AM Peak Congestion, Feb 2014 59 Map 27: PM Peak Congestion, Feb 2014 60 Figure 17: MoDOT October 2014 Mobility Report: I-270 PM Congestion 61 Figure 18: MoDOT October 2014 Mobility Report: I-270 AM Congestion 61 Figure 19: MoDOT October 2014 Mobility Report: I-64 AM Congestion 61 Figure 20: MoDOT October 2014 Mobility Report: I-64 PM Congestion 61 Map 28: Highways and Principal Arterials, 2013 63 Regional Transit System 64 Table 16: Annual Metro Ridership 64 Figure 21: Average Monthly Weekday Ridership 64 Map 29: Regional Transit System 65 Map 30: Rapid Transit Connector Study Locally Preferred Alternatives 66 Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Architecture Update 68 Map 31: Regional ITS Architecture 69 Freight 70 Figure 22: 2010 Freight Flows by Mode, St Louis Region 70 Figure 23: 2010 Freight Flows by Destination 70 Table 17: Freight Tonnage, Tons in thousands, 2011 70 Map 32: Primary Goods Movement Network 71 Rail 72 River 72 Road 72 Aviation 72 Pipe 73 Intermodal Activity 73 St Louis Regional Freight Authority 73 Environment 71 Map 33: Regional Ecological Significance 74 Map 34: Conservation Opportunity Areas 75 Wetland Data 76 Data Refinements 76 LEAM 77 Map 35: Ecological Stress Analysis, Fiscally Constrained Scenario 78 OneSTL 79 Chapter 3: Transportation Investment Plan 81 Summary of Project Evaluation Framework 82 Table 18: Performance Management Framework 83 Projects Considered for Plan Inclusion 84 Financial Capacity Analysis 84 Map 36: Funded Project Locations 85 Map 37 Illustrative Project Locations 86 Map 38: Corridor Study Locations 87 Table 19: IDOT Financial Capacity, 2016-2045 88 Table 20: Metro Financial Capacity, 2016-2045 88 Table 21: MoDOT Financial Capacity, 2016-2045 88 Chapter 4: Public Involvement 89 Chapter 1: Introduction Connected2045 | 1 Population Trends St Charles County saw the most dramatic increase in Preface population in the decades since 1950. In this period, The population of the eight-county East-West Gateway St Charles County has grown by more than a factor of This document serves as the State of the System region was estimated to be just under 2 6 million in 12, from a population of 30,000 in 1950 to more than Report and the Technical Supplement to the 2013 Between 1950 and 1970, the region added about 370,000 in 2013 Growth appears to have slowed in the St Louis area’s Regional Transportation Plan, 30,000 people per year, but since 1970 St Louis has post-recession period From 2000 to 2010, the county Connected2045, produced by East-West Gateway been a slow-growing region, adding fewer than 5,000 grew by more than 7,600 people per year, on average Council of Governments (the Council) Contained people per year Over the last half century, the region’s Since 2010, the growth has been a smaller, but still within are four sections that detail the analysis that population has shifted away from the urban core to the robust at 4,300 people per year went into the development of Connected2045 and more suburban and rural portions of the region highlights the Council’s transportation planning St Louis County is the largest county in the region, activities The introductory section of the chapter Table 1 and Figure 1 depict population change in the with over 1 million residents. The county experienced provides population and employment trends and eight counties of the region from 1950 through 2013 a substantial increase in population in the 1950s and