Macalester College DigitalCommons@Macalester College Latin American Studies Honors Projects Latin American Studies Spring 4-28-2016 Las Jefas de Sudamérica: Coalition Party Discipline in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina Adán S. Martínez Macalester College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/lashonors Part of the Spanish and Portuguese Language and Literature Commons Recommended Citation Martínez, Adán S., "Las Jefas de Sudamérica: Coalition Party Discipline in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina" (2016). Latin American Studies Honors Projects. Paper 9. http://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/lashonors/9 This Honors Project is brought to you for free and open access by the Latin American Studies at DigitalCommons@Macalester College. It has been accepted for inclusion in Latin American Studies Honors Projects by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@Macalester College. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Las Jefas de Sudamérica: Coalition Party Discipline in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina Adan Steve Martinez Macalester College Latin American Studies Department Advised by Professor Paul Dosh Defended on April 13, 2016 ABSTRACT Political coalitions play an essential role in governance in Latin America. Scholars have analyzed policy changes as a way of measuring condition under which political actors govern. What factors contribute to coalitional stability? Based on analysis of three presidential administrations- Dilma Rousseff of Brazil (2010-2014), Michelle Bachelet of Chile (2006-2010), and Cristina Fernández of Argentina (2007-2015)- I argue that fiscal constraints, power centralization, institutional incentives, and social movement strength shape coalitional stability between the executive and legislative branches. This project concludes that while economic conditions affect coalitional stability, other factors including the distribution of power and grassroots movements play an equal if not more important role. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 4 Theoretical Background on Political Coalitions ....................................................................................... 6 Chapter Outline ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER 1 ....................................................................................................................................... 10 IRON LADY OF BRAZIL? : COALITIONAL DISCIPLINE IN THE AGE OF ROUSSEFF . 10 Presidencialismo de Coalizão: Understanding Coalitions in Brazil ............................................. 11 Lula's Legacy: Advantage or Burden in Coalition Building? ........................................................... 13 Taking the Reins: Dilma's First Administration ..................................................................................... 24 Providing Opposition: MST's Continued Contention ........................................................................... 26 Presidential Cohesion Amidst Social Movement Challenges .......................................................... 32 Coalitional Partners: Friends till the End? ............................................................................................. 35 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................. 41 CHAPTER 2 ....................................................................................................................................... 44 LA MADRE DE CHILE: BACHELET’S ENTANGLEMENT WITH CONCERTACIÓN, NEOLIBERALISM, AND EDUCATION .................................................................................................. 44 Concertación and Pinochet: The 1988 Compromise and the Binomial System ......................... 46 "The Penguin Revolution" and Education Reform: Bachelet and Piñera's Entanglement with Students .................................................................................................................................................................. 51 Dealing with Dissent: Bachelet and La Nueva Mayoría ..................................................................... 55 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................. 64 CHAPTER 3 ....................................................................................................................................... 67 LA ESPOSA DE NUEVO PERÓNIMO: CRISTINA FERNANDEZ, INFLATION, AND THE KIRCHNER POLITICAL MACHINE ........................................................................................................ 67 "Kirchner to Fernandez": Understanding the Peronist Strategy ..................................................... 68 The Peronist Political Machine: Clientelism, Coalition, and Chaos ............................................. 72 Dealing with the Economy and Inflation: Cristina's "Popular" Approach to Coalitions ...... 81 Transition over to Macri: Lessons from the Kirchner Era ................................................................. 85 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................... 86 CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................................. 89 POLITICAL COALITIONS DURING CRISIS IN BRAZIL, CHILE, AND ARGENTINA .... 89 Political Coalition Theory: Understanding Coalitions in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina ....... 90 Fiscal Constraints ............................................................................................................................................. 93 Power Centralization ....................................................................................................................................... 96 Institutional Incentives .................................................................................................................................. 100 Social Movement Strength ........................................................................................................................... 103 Coalition Consistency .................................................................................................................................... 104 CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................... 108 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................ 112 ACKNOWLDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................ 119 3 INTRODUCTION Anywhere in Latin America there is a potential threat of the pathology of caudillismo and it has to be guarded against. -Noam Chomsky Political coalitions constitute a vital part of governing in Latin America. Coalitions provide the power necessary for presidents in the region to pass legislation that impacts the daily lives of citizens. Yet, how do coalitions operate and what happens when coalitions break down and leave? How do we determine the success or failure of a president's coalition? In this project, I explore the relationship between political coalitions1 and factors, which impact the stability of executive-legislative agreements. My theoretical analysis is based on three presidential administration case studies, all of which operate under a multiparty coalition system: Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, Michelle Bachelet of Chile, and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner of Argentina.2 Specifically, I examine the factors and processes, which lead to political stability during their political administrations. This research illuminates the factors that lead to certain coalition dynamics, showing how coalition building extends beyond the executive-legislative relationship. For the purposes of this project, I primarily use newspaper articles, both from U.S and international sources, to situate the rhetoric behind certain executive decisions. In addition, the written portion of the thesis incorporates a historical analysis of some of the 1 I define political coalitions as an agreement for cooperation between different political parties on common political agendas, often for purposed of contesting an election to mutually benefit by collectively clearing election thresholds, or otherwise benefiting from government formations after elections. 2 Although my three case studies happen to be female, the trajectory of my work does not include a gender 2 Although my three case studies happen to be female, the trajectory of my work does not include a gender analysis. Instead, I focus more on the electoral politics of these three case studies and how the three Presidents managed their governing coalitions. I refrain from offering a gender analysis because of my limitations in the area. 4 movements, which either supported or challenged political authority. The combination of newspaper sources combined with a historical analysis provides an in depth analysis of the social building processes