Università degli Studi di Cagliari Dottorato in Scienze e Tecnologie della Terra e dell’ambiente Dipartimento di Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente DOTTORATO DI RICERCA (PhD Thesis) Cicle XXIX The endemic vascular flora of Sardinia: analyses, distribution patterns, ecological processes and implications for conservation Botanica Ambientale e Applicata (BIO/03) (Environmental and Applied Botany) Presented by: Mauro Fois PhD coordinator Prof. Aldo Muntoni Tutor Prof. Gianluigi Bacchetta Co-tutor Ph.D. Giuseppe Fenu Final exam of the academic year 2015 – 2016 Thesis discussed on April 2017 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS GENERAL INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................5 1.1 The study of species distribution and its applications...................................................................................6 1.2 The study area: Sardinia................................................................................................................................9 1.3 Floristic discoveries and phytogeographical traits of Sardinia...................................................................13 1.4 Research objectives ....................................................................................................................................16 1.5 References of Introduction..........................................................................................................................17 CHAPTER I - The Aichi Biodiversity Target 12 at regional level: an achievable goal?..........................24 1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................26 2. Sardinian case study within the Mediterranean context................................................................................27 3. Methodological approach..............................................................................................................................28 4. Checklist elaboration and distribution data...................................................................................................29 5. Conservation status assessment.....................................................................................................................38 6. Ex situ conservation actions..........................................................................................................................39 7. In situ conservation actions...........................................................................................................................40 8. Active conservation measures.......................................................................................................................41 9. Towards the 2020, where and how much efforts we need? .........................................................................42 10. Conclusions.................................................................................................................................................43 11. References...................................................................................................................................................45 CHAPTER II – Disentangling the influence of topography, climate, and human factors on the endemic vascular plant richness at regional scale: the cryptic and peculiar distribution pattern of narrow species...............................................................................................................................................................49 1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................51 2. Materials and Methods 2.1 Study area.........................................................................................................................................52 2.2 Floristic data.....................................................................................................................................53 2.3 Explanatory variables.......................................................................................................................53 2.4 Statistical analyses.............................................................................................................................54 3. Results...........................................................................................................................................................57 4. Discussion.....................................................................................................................................................58 5. Concluding remarks......................................................................................................................................59 6. References....................................................................................................................................................60 CHAPTER III – Using extinctions in species distribution models to evaluate and predict threats: a contribution to the plant conservation planning in the Island of Sardinia................................................64 2 1. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................66 2. Methods 2.1 Study area.........................................................................................................................................67 2.2 Local extinctions and occurrence data..............................................................................................68 2.3 Ecological and anthropogenic factors...............................................................................................69 2.4 Evaluation of variable importance....................................................................................................70 2.5 Procedures, evaluation and ensemble of distribution models...........................................................70 3. Results 3.1 Evaluation of variable importance....................................................................................................71 3.2 Model evaluation and ensemble forecasting.....................................................................................72 4. Discussion.....................................................................................................................................................74 5. References.....................................................................................................................................................76 CHAPTER IV – Global analyses underrate part of the story: finding applicable results for the conservation planning of small Sardinian islets’ flora................................................................................79 1. Introduction.................................................................................................................................................81 2. Materials and Methods 2.1 Study area and floristic data..............................................................................................................82 2.2 Islets’ attributes.................................................................................................................................85 2.3 Environmental and endemic floristic analyses.................................................................................86 3. Results 3.1 Islets’ classification and endemism analysis....................................................................................87 3.2 Drivers of species richness...............................................................................................................90 4. Discussion 4.1 Islets’ classification and endemism analysis for PCA groups..........................................................92 4.2 Drivers of species richness...............................................................................................................92 4.3 Small islets’ conservation management planning.............................................................................93 5. Conclusions...................................................................................................................................................94 6. References.....................................................................................................................................................95 CHAPTER V - Identifying and assessing the efficiency of micro and nano biodiversity hotspots networks at regional level..............................................................................................................................................100 1. Introduction.................................................................................................................................................102 2. Materials and Methods 2.1 Study area.......................................................................................................................................103 2.2 Distribution of Endemic Vascular Plant Species (EVPS) .............................................................104 3 2.3 Micro and nano hotspots selection.................................................................................................105 2.4 Assessing the