Model Documentation Report: Industrial Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System January 2018 Independent Statistics & Analysis U.S. Department of Energy www.eia.gov Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or other Federal agencies. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Model Documentation Report: Industrial Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System i January 2018 Table of Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Model summary ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Archival media ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Model contact .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Organization of this report ...................................................................................................................... 2 2. Model Purpose .......................................................................................................................................... 4 3. Model Rationale ........................................................................................................................................ 6 Theoretical approach ............................................................................................................................... 6 Modeling approach .................................................................................................................................. 6 Industry Categories .................................................................................................................................. 7 Energy sources modeled .......................................................................................................................... 9 Industrial Model Structure .................................................................................................................... 10 Technology possibility curves, unit energy consumption, and relative energy intensities for end use models ................................................................................................................................................... 12 Capital stock and vintages for end-use models ..................................................................................... 14 Buildings component UEC ..................................................................................................................... 15 Process and assembly component UEC ................................................................................................. 15 Motor stock model ................................................................................................................................ 16 Boiler, steam, cogeneration component ............................................................................................... 18 Benchmarking ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Energy-intensive manufacturing industries ........................................................................................... 22 Food products (NAICS 311): End-use method................................................................................. 22 Paper and allied products (NAICS 322): Process flowsheet method .............................................. 23 Bulk chemical industry (parts of NAICS 325): End-use method ...................................................... 25 Glass and glass products industry (NAICS 3272, 32799): Process flowsheet method .................... 28 Cement and lime industries (NAICS 32731, 32741): Process flowsheet method ........................... 29 Iron and Steel Industry: (NAICS 3311, 3312, 324199) process flowsheet method ......................... 31 Alumina and aluminum industry (NAICS 3313): Process flowsheet method ................................. 32 Non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries ................................................................................... 34 Non-manufacturing industries ............................................................................................................... 34 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Model Documentation Report: Industrial Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System i January 2018 Agricultural submodule ................................................................................................................... 36 Mining submodule .......................................................................................................................... 36 Construction submodule ................................................................................................................. 37 Additional model assumptions .............................................................................................................. 37 4. Model Structure ...................................................................................................................................... 40 First Year: Initialize Data and Arrays ...................................................................................................... 40 Industry Processing ................................................................................................................................ 41 Process flow industry submodules .................................................................................................. 41 National Summaries ........................................................................................................................ 42 Apply exogenous adjustments and assign values to global variables ............................................. 42 Main Subroutines and equations........................................................................................................... 42 IND ................................................................................................................................................... 43 SETUP_MAC_AND_PRICE ................................................................................................................ 43 ISEAM .............................................................................................................................................. 43 RCNTRL ............................................................................................................................................ 44 IEDATA ............................................................................................................................................. 44 REXOG ............................................................................................................................................. 44 IRHEADER ........................................................................................................................................ 44 MECSBASE ....................................................................................................................................... 45 ISEAM .............................................................................................................................................. 45 IRBSCBYP ......................................................................................................................................... 45 RDCNTL ............................................................................................................................................ 45 IRCOGEN .......................................................................................................................................... 45 IRSTEPBYP ........................................................................................................................................ 46 UECTPC ............................................................................................................................................ 46 IFINLCALC ........................................................................................................................................ 46 Specialized Subroutines ......................................................................................................................... 46 CALPATOT ........................................................................................................................................ 46 MOTORS .......................................................................................................................................... 48 CALBTOT .......................................................................................................................................... 56 CALGEN ...........................................................................................................................................