FINAL KLAMATH RIVER FALL CHINOOK SALMON REBUILDING PLAN, ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT, MAGNUSON-STEVENS FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT ACT ANALYSIS, REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW, AND REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS REGULATORY IDENTIFIER NUMBER 0648-BI04 PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN INTEGRATED DOCUMENT DESIGNED TO MEET THE NEEDS OF THE PACIFIC FISHERY MANAGEMENT COUNCIL’S PACIFIC SALMON FISHERY MANAGEMENT PLAN AND PROVIDE THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REQUIRED UNDER THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT.. Pacific Fishery Management Council National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) 7700 NE Ambassador Place, Suite 101 7600 Sand Point Way, NE, BIN C15700 Portland, OR 97220-1384 Seattle, WA 98115-0700 (503) 820-2280 (206) 526-6150 www.pcouncil.org www.noaa.gov/fisheries This version of the document may be cited in the following manner: Pacific Fishery Management Council and National Marine Fisheries Service. 2020. Final Environmental Assessment: Salmon Rebuilding Plan for Klamath River fall-run Chinook salmon. A report of the Pacific Fishery Management Council pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award Number NA15NMF4410016. Final Environmental Assessment: KRFC Rebuilding Plan October 2020 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Salmon Technical Team, NMFS, and the Council staff express their thanks for the expert assistance provided by those listed here and numerous other tribal and agency personnel in completing this report. Dr. Michael O’Farrell, STT Chair National Marine Fisheries Service, Santa Cruz, California Mr. Jon Carey, STT Vice-Chair National Marine Fisheries Service, Lacey, Washington Ms. Wendy Beeghley, STT member Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Montesano, Washington Mr. Craig Foster, STT member Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Clackamas, Oregon Ms. Vanessa Gusman California Department of Fish and Wildlife, Santa Rosa, California Mr. Steve Gough U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Arcata, California Dr. Steve Haeseker, STT member U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Vancouver, Washington Ms. Ashton Harp, STT Member Northwest Indian Fish Commission, Forks, Washington Mr. Dave Hillemeier Yurok Tribe, Klamath, California Mr. George Kautsky Hoopa Valley Tribe, Hoopa, California Dr. Robert Kope, former STT member, Vice-Chair National Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, Washington (retired) Mr. Larrie Lavoy, former STT member National Marine Fisheries Service, Lacey, Washington (retired) Mr. Alex Letvin, STT member California Department of Fish and Wildlife, Santa Rosa, California Ms. Peggy Mundy National Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle, Washington Dr. Jim Seger Pacific Fishery Management Council, Portland, Oregon Mr. Wade Sinnen California Department of Fish and Wildlife, Arcata, California Dr. Ed Waters Economist (on contract with the Pacific Fishery Management Council), Beaverton, Oregon i Final Environmental Assessment: KRFC Rebuilding Plan October 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.0 Executive summary ..............................................................................................................1 2.0 Introduction ..........................................................................................................................2 2.1 National Environmental Policy Act .....................................................................................3 2.1.1 Proposed Action .......................................................................................................3 2.1.2 Purpose and Need ....................................................................................................3 2.2 Stock overview.....................................................................................................................4 2.2.1 Location and geography ...........................................................................................4 2.2.2 Stock composition ....................................................................................................5 2.3 Management overview .........................................................................................................5 2.3.1 Conservation objectives ...........................................................................................5 2.3.2 Management strategy ...............................................................................................6 3.0 Review of Potential Factors Leading to Overfished Status .................................................7 3.1 Freshwater survival ..............................................................................................................7 3.1.1 Review of freshwater conditions .............................................................................7 3.1.2 Parental stock size and distribution ........................................................................11 3.1.3 Juvenile production estimates ................................................................................14 3.1.4 Disease ...................................................................................................................18 3.1.5 Stock and recruitment ............................................................................................23 3.1.6 Hatchery production...............................................................................................25 3.1.7 Other relevant factors .............................................................................................27 3.2 Marine survival ..................................................................................................................29 3.2.1 Review of ocean conditions ...................................................................................29 3.2.2 Early life survival rates ..........................................................................................34 3.3 Harvest impacts ..................................................................................................................36 3.3.1 Ocean fisheries .......................................................................................................36 3.3.2 In-river fisheries .....................................................................................................39 3.4 Assessment and management ............................................................................................42 3.4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................42 3.4.2 Performance ...........................................................................................................43 3.5 Summary of potential causal factors ..................................................................................47 4.0 Recommendations for action .............................................................................................48 4.1 Recommendation 1: Rebuilt criterion ................................................................................48 4.2 Recommendation 2: Management strategy alternatives for MSA rebuilding plan and NEPA analysis .......................................................................................................48 4.3 Recommendation 3: Fall fisheries ....................................................................................49 4.4 Recommendation 4: de minimis fisheries .........................................................................49 4.5 Recommendation 5: Habitat Committee ...........................................................................49 4.6 Analysis of alternatives ......................................................................................................50 4.7 Further recommendations ..................................................................................................52 5.0 Socio-economic impacts of management strategy alternatives .........................................52 5.1 Approach to the socio-economic analysis and benchmark/baseline ..................................52 5.2 Alternative I .......................................................................................................................59 5.3 Alternative II ......................................................................................................................59 ii Final Environmental Assessment: KRFC Rebuilding Plan October 2020 5.4 Alternative III.....................................................................................................................63 5.5 Summary of economic impacts ..........................................................................................63 6.0 Affected Environment and Environmental effects of Management Strategy Alternatives Considered ...............................................................................................66 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................66 6.2 Targeted salmon stocks ......................................................................................................67 6.2.1 Affected environment ............................................................................................67 6.2.2 Environmental consequences of alternatives on target salmon stocks ..................67 6.3 Marine mammals ...............................................................................................................68 6.3.1 Affected environment ............................................................................................68 6.3.2 Environmental