Research for Development Series R4D Series 6 Partner of Rural poverty and Food insecurity mapping at district level for improved agricultural water management in the Limpopo River Basin Dr. Manuel S. Magombeyi Prof. Akpofure E. Taigbenu Dr. Jennie Barron About the CPWF R4D (Research for Development) Series The CPWF R4D (Research for Development) Series is one of the main publication channels of the program. Papers within the series present new thinking, ideas and perspectives from CPWF research with a focus on the implications for development and research into use. Papers are based on finalized research or emerging research results. In both instances, papers are peer reviewed and findings are based on sound scientific evidence and data though these may be incomplete at the time of publication. The series brings together multi-disciplinary research, global syntheses and findings that have implications for development practitioners at various levels. Copyright c 2013, CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food Unless otherwise noted, you are free to copy, duplicate or reproduce, and distribute, display, or transmit any part of this paper or portions thereof without permission, and to make translations, adaptations or other derivative works under the following conditions: ATTRIBUTION. The work must be attributed but not in any way that suggests endorsement by CPWF or the author(s). NON-COMMERCIAL. This work may not be used for commercial purposes. SHARE ALIKE. If this work is altered, transformed, or built upon, the resulting work must be distributed only under the same or similar license to this one. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of CPWF, the authors’ institutions or the financial sponsors of this publication. Citation Magombeyi, M. S., Taigbenu, A. E. and Barron, J., 2013. Rural poverty and Food insecurity mapping at district level for improved agricultural water management in the Limpopo River Basin. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF). 54pp. (CPWF Research for Development (R4D) Series 6) Editing: Joseph Perera Design and layout: Janet Pontin Cover photo: M. Magombeyi CPWF Research for Development (R4D) Series 6 Rural poverty and Food insecurity mapping at district level for improved agricultural water management in the Limpopo River Basin Dr. Manuel S. Magombeyi Prof. Akpofure E. Taigbenu Dr. Jennie Barron CPWF R4D 6 Project information The project targeting and scaling out undertakes research for development within the Limpopo Basin Development Challenge of improving integrated management of rainwater to improve smallholder productivity and livelihoods and reduce risk. The project developed an evidence and knowledge-based tool to assess and map the likelihood that a given intervention will be successful in given locations, at the basin scale. The project seeks to answer the question of what works where and why, leading to greater impact from localised successes within the Limpopo basin. Authors’ organizations Dr. Manuel S. Magombeyi School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Prof. Akpofure E. Taigbenu University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa Dr. Jennie Barron Stockholm Environment Institute, and Stockholm University, York, UK CPWF DONORS Enabling poor rural people to overcome poverty ii Table of contents List of figures and tables iv Acknowledgements v Abstract 1 1: Introduction 2 1.1 Purposes of this paper 3 2: Poverty Definitions 4 2.1 Poverty lines 4 2.2 Food security 5 2.3 Livelihood, poverty and food security 5 2.4 Why poverty maps? 6 3: Methods and Data 7 4: Population and poverty in the Limpopo River Basin countries 10 4.1 Botswana rural poverty and food insecurity mapping 11 4.2 Mozambique rural poverty and food insecurity mapping 14 4.3 South Africa rural poverty and food insecurity mapping 18 4.4 Zimbabwe rural poverty and food insecurity mapping 22 4.5 Poverty and population changes 26 4.6 Livelihood zones in the LBDC study sites 28 4.7 Discussion of alleviation efforts by basin countries 30 5: Mapping CPWF-LBDC sites on smallholder farms and landuse 32 6: Overlap of poverty incidence, L1 consultation cases, smallholder farms 33 and land use 7: Conclusion 36 References 38 CPWF R4D 6 iii Figures Figure 1: Major rivers, dams, transport network and protected areas in the Limpopo 3 River Basin Figure 2: Botswana rural poverty maps at district level in 2003 (a) and 2009/2010 (b) 12 Figure 3: Botswana rural food insecurity maps at district level in 2003 (a) and 2009 (b) 13 Figure 4: Mozambique rural poverty maps at district level in 2003 (a) and 2008/2009 (b) 16 Figure 5: Mozambique rural food insecurity maps at district level in 2003 (a) and 2008 (b) 17 Figure 6: South Africa rural poverty maps at district level in 2003 (a), 2007 (b) and 2010 (c) 20 Figure 7: South Africa rural food insecurity maps at district level in 2003 (a), 2007 (b) and 21 2010 (c) Figure 8: Zimbabwe rural poverty maps at district level in 2003 (a) and 2011 (b) 24 Figure 9: Zimbabwe rural food insecurity maps at district level in 2003 (a) and 2011(b) 25 Figure 10: Poverty changes in the Limpopo Basin (a) Botswana (2003–2009/2010), (b 26 Zimbabwe (2003–2011), (c) South Africa (2007–2010) and (d) Mozambique (2003–2008/2009) Figure 11: Smallholder farm locations, AWM cases from consultations, PGIS and LBDC study 32 sites Figure 12: Limpopo Basin landuse, AWM cases from L1 consultations and LBDC study sites 32 Figure 13a: Overlap of LBDC study sites, PGIS sites, AWM cases from L1 consultations and 34 poverty levels of 2003 in the Limpopo Basin Figure 13b. Overlap of LBDC study sites, PGIS sites, AWM cases from L1 consultations, mean 34 annual rainfall and most recent poverty levels in the Limpopo Basin. Data sources for poverty, Botswana (2009/2010), Mozambique (2008/2009), South Africa (2010) and Zimbabwe (2011) Tables Table 1: Physical and socioeconomic features of the four Limpopo Basin countries 10 Table 2: Population and poverty levels in the Limpopo River Basin countries 11 Table 3: Population, area and percentage of poor by district in the Limpopo River Basin, 11 Botswana Table 4: Population, area and percentage of poor by district in the Limpopo River Basin, 15 Mozambique Table 5: Population, area and percentage of poor by district in the Limpopo River Basin, 18 South Africa Table 6: Population, area and percentage of poor by district in the Limpopo River Basin, 22 Zimbabwe Table 7: Livelihood zones, mean annual rainfall and runoff in the LBDC study sites 28 iv Acknowledgements The CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) provided financial support under their project entitled CPWF Limpopo 1 ‘Targeting and scaling out’ in Limpopo Basin. Additional funding and technical input for this research were provided by UK Department for International Development (DFID), the European Commission (EC), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the University of the Witwatersrand. We appreciate contributions and comments from Dr. Amy Sullivan, Prof. Jackie Goldin and Dr. R. Ducrot. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the CPWF. CPWF R4D 6 v Bumper harvest and crop diversification - the trajectory out of food insecurity and poverty Photo: M. Magombeyi On the contrary, crops affected by dry spells and droughts at different growth stages result in poor yield in the Limpopo Basin Photo: WaterNet vi Abstract The Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) Phase II for the Limpopo Basin Development Challenge (LBDC) project aims to develop methods, processes, and technologies to help resource- constrained smallholder farmers mitigate poverty and food insecurity through improved agricultural water management (AWM) strategies. The purposes of this paper are to: 1) Identify areas in the Limpopo River Basin with high levels of rural poverty and food insecurity; 2) Identify areas where AWM interventions are taking place; and 3) Check whether current activities of the CPWF in the Limpopo Basin are located in areas of need as per poverty profiles and geographical location of smallholder farms. The generated poverty and food insecurity maps were based on food security surveys and estimates of consumption or income-based welfare outcomes at the district level from 2003–2013. Based on existing district level poverty and other relevant data in the basin, the study shows that the LBDC study sites are located in poor areas in the Limpopo Basin, and poverty reduction efforts should prioritize vulnerable female and child-headed households as they are the most negatively impacted by poverty and food insecurity in the four countries. Hence, with the overall aim of CPWF under LBDC to reduce poverty and food insecurity, and improve livelihoods, poverty indices should rank highly as one of the factors for project site selection. Poverty and food insecurity mapping plays an important role in identifying areas lagging behind in social and economic development, and also in facilitating targeted developmental programs such as education, health, access to credit, agricultural production support and food aid. However, it should be recognized that using district-level information often masks the existence of poverty pockets in otherwise relatively well-off districts, which could lead to poorly targeted AWM schemes. In addition, the poverty index is limited by the subjective nature of community-level