SPECIAL REPORT RUSSIA October 22nd 2016 Inside the bear 20162210_SRrussia.indd 1 14/10/2016 13:44 SPECIAL REPORT RUSSIA Inside the bear When the Soviet Union collapsed 25 years ago, Russia looked set to become a free-market democracy. Arkady Ostrovsky explains why that did not happen, and how much of it is Mr Putin’s fault ON AUGUST 20th Guzel Semenova, a 25-year-old Muscovite, was stroll- CONTENTS ing through the grounds of Muzeon, one of the city’s parks, and stopped by a burnt-out, rusty trolleybus. Inside its shattered interior a small video 3 The economy screen was playing black-and-white footage of events that unfolded in Milk without the cow the year she was born. A volunteer explained that the trolleybus had been part of an anti-tank barricade during a coup 25 years ago and sym- 7 Power structures Wheels within wheels bolised the people’svictory. MsSemenova looked confused. The 22-year- old volunteer, herself unsure what exactly had happened during those 8 Foreign policy three days in August 1991, said it was when “Russia became free.” Ms Se- The fog of wars menova listened politely, then walked on. 11 Modern life Tell me about Joan of Arc A patchy knowledge of those events is nothing unusual 13 Past and future in Russia. A survey by the Levada Take care of Russia Centre, the country’s leading in- dependent pollster, shows that half the overall population and as many as 90% of young Rus- sians know nothing about the drama that began in the small hours ofAugust19th 1991. That morning the world woke up to news ofa coup. Mikh- ail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, was detained in Crimea, “unable, for health reasons, to perform his duties”. Power had been seized by a group of hard- line Communists, the chief of the KGB and senior army generals, who declared a state of emergen- cy. Tanks were rumbling through the centre of Moscow. The televi- sion, overrun bythe KGB’sspecial forces, was playing Tchaikovsky’s “Swan Lake” on a loop. It was a last, desperate attempt to save the disintegrating empire. But on the day of the coup ACKNOWLEDGMENTS not a soul came out to support the Soviet regime. Instead, tens of thou- In addition to those mentioned and sands of Muscovites took to the streets to build barricades and defend quoted in the text, the author would their new freedoms. Boris Yeltsin, the first democratically elected presi- like to thank: Evgenia Albats, Erik dent of Russia, then a subordinate part of the Soviet Union, called for re- Berglof, Carl Bildt, Baiba Braze, Anton Drel, Natalia Fishman, Mikhail sistance. The KGB’s special forces were told to attack the Russian parlia- Fridman, Alexander Gabuev, Sergei ment, the epicentre ofthe opposition, but nobody was prepared to give a Guriev, Andrew Higgins, James Hill, written order. Two days later three young men died under a tank. A few Eduard Khayrullin, Andrei Kurilkin, hours after that the troops were withdrawn and Gorbachev returned to Maria Lipman, John Lloyd, Igor Malashenko, Rustam Minnikhanov, Moscow. Jubilant crowds marched to the KGB’s headquarters and top- René Nyberg, Risto Penttilä, Peter pled the statue ofits founder, Felix Dzerzhinsky. Pomerantsev, Irina Prokhorova, Those three days marked the end of the Soviet Union, but they did Eugene Rumer, Inna Solovyova, not become a foundation myth for a new Russia. The country was tired Constanze Stelzenmüller, Angela Stent, John Thornhill, Alex Wilbra- of myths. Modern school textbooks barely mention them. Russian offi- ham, Martin Wolf and Andrei Zorin. cials used to lay flowers at a small monument to the three young men killed by the tanks, but even this modest gesture stopped in 2004. This A list of sources is at year liberals were banned from marching to the place of their victory 25 1 Economist.com/specialreports The Economist October 22nd 2016 1 SPECIAL REPORT RUSSIA 2 years ago. The small festival at the Muzeon attracted a few hun- has been emasculated, turning Russia into a unitary state. dred people who watched a stylised performance of “Swan Reactionary restoration at home has led to aggression Lake” and a documentary from those days. Shot in St Petersburg, abroad. Russia has invaded Georgia and Ukraine, two of the the cradle of the Bolshevik revolution, it showed a vast, peaceful mostdemocraticformerSovietrepublics. Ithasintervened in the crowd in the main square watchingthe death throesofthe Soviet conflict in Syria, propping up the regime of President Bashar al- empire. The camera also captured a young Vladimir Putin by the Assad. It has attempted to undermine Euro-Atlantic institutions, side of his boss, Anatoly Sobchak, then the mayor of St Peters- backed right-wingpartiesin Europe and tried to meddle in Amer- burg, who had defied the coup. A demonstrator was heard to ica’s presidential election. And it is once again using the threat of shout: “When we get rid of the communist plague, we will again nuclear arms to blackmail the West. become free and we won’t have to fight [a war] again.” After the defeat of the 1991 coup, Russia was widely expect- The revolution of1991overturned the Soviet Union’s politi- ed to become a Westernised, democratic, free-market country. cal, economic and social order and put 15 countries on the map Thisspecial reportwill explain whythatdid nothappen, and ask where there had previously been only one. But like many revolu- whether the West has a Putin problem or a much deeper and tions in history, it was followed by a restoration. more enduring Russia problem. The tsar the Kremlin most admires is Alexander III, who on Mr Putin was originally chosen for the top job by eltsin, taking office in 1881reversed the liberalisation overseen by his fa- Russia’s first president, not least for being on the “democratic” ther, who was assassinated, to impose an official ideology ofOr- side in 1991. When he came to power in 2000, he was expected to thodoxy, nationalism and autocracy. His portrait and his famous consolidate the country. Instead, he has reinstated an archaic saying, “Russia has only two allies: its army and its navy,” greet model ofthe state. visitors to a revamped museum of Russian history at VDNKH, a It was naive to expect that after 74 years of Soviet rule, and prime example of Stalinist architecture in Moscow. Stalin him- several centuries ofpaternalism before that, Russia would rapid- self has had a makeover too. Gigantic portraits of him line the ly emerge as a functioning Western-style democracy. But this re- roads in Crimea, proclaiming: “It is our victory!” port will show that Russia’s relapse into an authoritarian cor- The two main pillars of the Soviet state, propaganda and porate state was not inevitable. It was the result of the choices the threat ofrepression, have been restored. The KGB, which was made by the country’s elite at each new fork in the road. And al- humiliated and broken up in the aftermath ofthe coup, has been though those choices cannot be unmade, they do not predeter- rebuiltasthe main vehicle forpolitical and economicpower. The mine the future. secret police is once again jailing protesters and harassing civil activists. In September the Kremlin designated the Levada Cen- Not the Soviet Union tre a “foreign agent”, which could be the end of it. Television has The collapse ofthe Soviet Union brought a massive change been made into a venomous propaganda machine that encour- to Russia. The creation ofprivate ownership launched industries agespeople to fight“national traitors” and “fifth-columnists”. Bo- that did not exist before, such as private banks, restaurants and ris Nemtsov, a liberal politician who once represented Russia’s mobile-phone networks. People are free to make money, con- hopes of becoming a “normal” country, was murdered outside sume and travel on a scale never seen before in Russia’s history. the Kremlin last year. Theyconsume notjustmore goodsand servicesbutmore culture After nearly a decade of economic growth spurred by the and information. The state no longer dominates people’s lives. market reforms of the 1990s and by rising oil prices, the Russian Although it controls television, the internet remains largely un- economy has descended into Soviet-era stagnation. Competi- constrained everywhere, and radio and print still have some tion has been stifled and the state’s share in the economy has freedom. Even Alexei Navalny, an opposition politician, admits doubled. The military-industrial complex—the core of the Soviet that “despite the curtailing of political and civil freedoms, the economy—is once again seen as the engine of growth. Alterna- past 25 years have been the freest in Russian history.” tive power centres have been eliminated. Post-Soviet federalism People are becoming increasingly alienated from politics, as demonstrated by the low turnout in the parliamentary elections in September, buttheyare findingotherwaysofexpress- ing their views. Although few Russians re- memberquite howthe Sovietregime end- ed, many enjoy the results. Russia has a vibrant urban middle class which, until recently, was richer than its equivalents in eastern Europe. Russia’s cities, with their cafés, cycle lanes and shopping streets, don’t look very different from their Euro- pean counterparts. A new generation of Westernised Russians born since the end of the Soviet Union has come of age. The children of the Soviet intelligentsia—a vast educated professional class that supported Gorb- achev—dress, eat and behave differently from their parents’ generation. They have a spring in their step. Many of these young, educated Rus- sians owe their comfortable lives to a dec- ade of economic growth that began in 1 2 The Economist October 22nd 2016 SPECIAL REPORT RUSSIA winter Olympics ever staged, in Sochi on the Black Sea.