TECHNICAL REPORT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF JAMAICA’S TRANSPORT SECTOR March 2018 This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics for the ATLAS Task Order. This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics International for the Climate Change Adaptation, Thought Leadership and Assessments (ATLAS) Task Order No. AID-OAA-I-14-00013, under the Restoring the Environment through Prosperity, Livelihoods, and Conserving Ecosystems (REPLACE) IDIQ. Chemonics contact: Chris Perine, Chief of Party ([email protected]) Chemonics International Inc. 1717 H Street NW Washington, DC 20006 ATLAS reports and other products are available on the Climatelinks website: https://www.climatelinks.org/projects/atlas Cover Photo: National Works Agency, 2010; a completed section of Segment 3 - Northern Coastal Highway Improvement Project. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF JAMAICA’S TRANSPORT SECTOR March 2018 Prepared for: United States Agency for International Development Climate Change Adaptation, Thought Leadership and Assessments (ATLAS) Prepared by: Maria Fernanda Zermoglio and Owen Scott (Chemonics International Inc.) This report is made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of the author or authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government. CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ······································································ I ACRONYMS ································································································· III MESSAGE FROM THE MINISTER ··································································· IV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ·················································································· 1 Overview ......................................................................................................................... 1 What climate risks does Jamaica face and how will this impact the transport sector? ................................................................................................................... 1 What makes Jamaica’s transport sector vulnerable to climate variability and climate change? ..................................................................................................... 2 Priority vulnerabilities ....................................................................................................... 4 Recommendations........................................................................................................... 5 Investments and finance ..................................................................................................... 5 Leadership and governance - Institutions ........................................................................... 5 Leadership and governance - ............................................................................................. 6 Information systems ............................................................................................................ 7 INTRODUCTION ···························································································· 9 Overview ......................................................................................................................... 9 Objectives ....................................................................................................................... 9 The Jamaican transport sector ...................................................................................... 10 Roads ............................................................................................................................. 10 Public transport network ................................................................................................... 11 Airports ............................................................................................................................. 11 Ports ............................................................................................................................. 12 Railways ............................................................................................................................ 12 Climate variability and climate change and events that impact the transport sector ................................................................................................................. 14 Historical occurrence of damage to the transport sector ................................................ 16 Hurricanes and associated heavy rains ............................................................................ 19 Heavy rain-induced flooding, landslides, landslips and debris flow .................................. 19 Sea level rise and coastal storm surge ............................................................................. 20 INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS ···········································································21 Existing institutions in the transport sector ..................................................................... 22 Situational analysis of transport policy ........................................................................... 25 Policy overview ................................................................................................................. 25 Progress to date in achieving policy objectives ................................................................ 28 Gaps and challenges ........................................................................................................ 32 Evaluation of stakeholder readiness to climate-proof investments ................................. 34 Government of Jamaica .................................................................................................... 34 Transport sector stakeholders .......................................................................................... 35 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ····································································38 Assumptions and limitations .......................................................................................... 39 Sensitivity – What parts of the transport network and its users are vulnerable and why? .................................................................................................................. 40 Road conditions ................................................................................................................ 40 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF JAMAICA’S TRANSPORT SECTOR | i Drainage infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 43 Status of the country’s bridges .......................................................................................... 46 Status of the country’s principal public transportation network ......................................... 46 Exposure: What are the assets and system users vulnerable to? .................................. 47 Landslides ......................................................................................................................... 50 Floods ............................................................................................................................. 50 Criticality: Based on critical economic or social protection functions, which assets should be prioritized? ......................................................................................... 54 Future risk ......................................................................................................................... 54 Recommendations......................................................................................................... 61 Investments and finance ................................................................................................... 61 Leadership and governance ............................................................................................. 61 Information systems .......................................................................................................... 63 TRANSPORT SECTOR BEST PRACTICE FOR SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES ·····························································································65 REFERENCES ······························································································69 ANNEX A: DATA LIST OF SPATIAL INFORMATION COMPILED AND UTILIZED FOR THIS ASSESMENT ·························································72 ANNEX B: TRANSPORT POLICIES, PLANS, REPORTS AND STUDIES ···············74 ANNEX C: GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS AND TOOLS TO ASSESS CLIMATE RISKS TO THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ···················································76 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF JAMAICA’S TRANSPORT SECTOR | ii LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1. Condition classification of Jamaica’s main roads ........................................................10 Figure 2. Condition of shelters available across the network .....................................................11 Figure 3. Costliest disasters in Jamaica since 1980 ..................................................................17 Figure 4. Disasters by type, 1973–2014 ....................................................................................17 Figure 5. Weather-related damages to Jamaica’s