Job Name:2105247 Date:14-12-30 PDF Page:2105247cbc.p1.pdf Color: Cyan Magenta Yellow Black Tile American Elections 01'111 Till AlDlrlclI EllCliols 011110 Ediled by Auslin Ranney American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington and London Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title: The American elections of 1980. (AEI studies; 327) Includes index. 1. Presidents-United States-Election-1980-Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Carter, Jimmy, 1924- Addresses, essays, lectures. 3. Reagan, Ronald-- Addresses, essays, lectures. I. Ranney, Austin. II. Series. E875.A43 324.973'0926 81-7907 ISBN 0-8447-3447-0 AACR2 ISBN 0-8447-3448-9 (pbk.) AEI Studies 327 © 1981 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., and London. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. "American Enterprise Institute" and ® are registered service marks of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Printed in the United States of America The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, established in 1943, is a publicly supported, nonpartisan, research and educational organization. Its purpose is to assist policy makers, scholars, businessmen, the press, and the public by providing objective analysis of national and'international issues. Views expressed in the institute's publications are those of the authors and do not neces­ sarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AE!. Council of Academic Advisers Paul W. McCracken, Chairman, Edmund Ezra Day University Professor of Busi­ ness Administration, University of Michigan Robert H. Bork, Alexander M. Bickel Professor of Public Law, Yale Law School Kenneth W. Dam, Harold ]. and Marion F. Green Professor of Law and Provost, University of Chicago Donald C. Hellmann, Professor of Political Science and International Studies, University of Washington D. Gale Johnson, Eliakim Hastings Moore Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Chicago Robert A. Nisbet, Adjunct Scholar, American Enterprise Institute Herbert Stein, A. Willis Robertson Professor of EconolTzics, University of Virginia James Q. Wilson, Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of Government, Harvard University Executive Committee Richard B. Madden, Chairman of the Board Richard J. FarreII William J. Baroody, Jr., President Charles T. Fisher III Herman J. Schmidt Richard D. Wood Edward Styles, Director of Publications Program Directors Periodicals Russell Chapin, Legislative Analyses AEI Economist, Herbert Stein, Editor Thomas F. Johnson, Economic Policy Studies AEI Foreign Policy and Defense Sidney L. Jones, Seminar Programs Review, Robert J. Pranger, Editor; James W. Abellera, Marvin H. Kosters, Managing Editor Government Regulation Studies W. S. Moore, Legal Policy Studies Public Opinion, Seymour Martin Lipset and Ben J. Wattenberg, Rudolph G. Penner, Tax Policy Studies Co-Editors; Karlyn H. Keene, Managing Editor Howard R. Penniman/Austin Ranney, Political and Social Processes Regulation, Antonin Scalia, Editor; Anne Brunsdale, Robert J. Pranger, International Programs Managing Editor Contents PREFACE xi 1 THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION Austin Ranney 1 Conception, Gestation, and Birth: 1974-1976 3 The Game Plan S The Honeymoon: January 20-August 31, 1977 17 The First Slump: September 1977 to September 1978 22 Camp David II, the Middle East Accords, Renaissance in the Polls: September to December 1978 27 More Slump: January to November 1979 28 Rallying around the President: November 4, 1979, to January 21, 1980 33 2 THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION Nelson W. Polsby 37 The Kennedy Challenge and the Hostage Crisis 39 The Carter~KennedyCampaign 49 The Drive for an Open Convention S4 The 1980 Nomination as a Consequence of the 1976 Nomination S8 NOMINATING "CARTER'S FAVORITE OPPONENT": 3 THE REPUBLICANS IN 1980 Charles o. lones 61 The American Way of Nominating Presidents 64 The Nomination of Ronald Reagan 69 The Candidates and Why They Ran 71 The Candidates and How They Ran 76 Candidate Reagan and Party Unity 88 Preserving the Peace in Detroit 91 Concluding Comments 96 THE CONVENTIONS, PLATFORMS, AND ISSUE 4 ACTIVISTS Michael I. Malbin 99 The Republicans 100 The Democrats 116 Afterthoughts 133 5 THE CAMPAIGN AND THE ISSUES Albert R. Hunt 142 The Beginning: Opportunities, Problems, and Strategies 142 The Campaign's First Phase 149 Midcampaign 154 The Final Three Weeks 163 THE MEDIA IN 1980: WAS THE MESSAGE THE 6 MESSAGE? Michael I. Robinson 177 Paid Media 178 Free Media 190 Why Were the Media Less Important in 1980? 202 Conclusion 210 THE NOVEMBER 4 VOTE FOR PRESIDENT: 7 WHAT DID IT MEAN? William Schneider 212 The Election Results 215 The Issues 227 The Reagan "Mandate" 240 Realignment 249 THE REPUBLICAN SURGE IN CONGRESS 8 Thomas E. Mann and Norman I. Ornstein 263 Party Strategies after 1976 263 The Senate Campaign 268 The House Campaign 283 The Senate Results 292 The House Results 296 Conclusion: The Ninety-seventh Congress 299 How NOT TO SELECT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: 9 A VIEW FROM EUROPE Anthony King 303 American Views of Carter and Reagan 305 A European Contrast 307 Assessing the American System 320 THE PARTY OF GOVERNMENT, THE PARTY OF OPPOSITION, 10 AND THE PARTY OF BALANCE: AN AMERICAN VIEW OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 1980 ELECTION Aaron Wildavsky 329 The Party of Opposition versus the Party of Responsibility 331 Adjusting to External Turbulence and Internal Fragmentation 337 Policies for a Party of Opposition 341 The Future 346 ApPENDIXES 351 Appendix A: Presidential Election Popular Votes by State and Region, 1976 and 1980 352 Appendix B: Electoral Votes for President by State and Region, 1976 and 1980 358 Appendix C: Presidential Primary Election Results and Turnout, 1980 361 Appendix D: State Systems for Choosing National Convention Delegates, 1968-1980 366 Appendix E: Proliferation of Presidential Primaries, 1968-1980 369 Appendix F: Congressional Outcomes by State and Region, 1980 370 Appendix G: Gubernatorial Election Results, 1980 376 Appendix H: Partisan Control of State Legislatures,1968-1980 378 CONTRIBUTORS 380 INDEX 383 Preface This book is the American Enterprise Institute's first analysis of an American election. Since it is intended to be the first of a continuing series, it seems appropriate to begin by saying something about the kind of book we have tried to produce. The book will generally follow the leads of two well-known series on elections in other democratic countries. One is AEI's At the Polls series, directed by Howard R. Penniman, which includes books on at least two national elections in each of nineteen democratic countries on five continents, each written mainly by scholars from the particular countries concerned with occasional participation by Amer­ ican experts on the countries.1 The other is the Nuffield studies­ volumes on all British general elections from 1945 on, sponsored by Nuffield College, Oxford, with the distinguished British political scientist David Butler as the sole or senior author for every volume beginning with the one on the 1951 election.2 There is, however, one major difference between this book and most of the At the Polls volumes and all of the Nuffield studies: Each of those series focuses on a particular 1/general election"-that is, an election in which all of the seats in the dominant house of the national legislature are contested, and the party or coalition of parties that wins a majority of the seats not only controls the legislature but also determines who will be the executive head of government. In this sense, the United States does not have general elections. The elections held in "presidential years," such as 1980, come the closest, but even they are not full-fledged general elections. In 1980, for example, American voters in all fifty states and the District of Columbia voted 1 As of April 1981 the series included books on elections in Australia, Canada, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Great Britain, India, Ireland, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Scandinavia, and Venezuela. AEI has also published a general comparative study of electoral institutions and processes in twenty-eight democratic countries: David Butler, Howard R. Penniman, and Austin Ranney, eds., Democracy at the Polls (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1981). 2 For a general review and evaluation of the Nuffield studies, see Austin Ranney, "Thirty Years of 'Psephology,'" British Journal of Political Science, vol. 6 (April 1976), pp. 217-30. xi PREFACE for president and vice-president; voters in each of the 435 congres­ sional districts chose the district's member of the House of Repre­ sentatives; but the staggered terms of senators meant that only thirty-four of the fifty states held senatorial elections. There were also elections for some state offices in forty-five of the fifty states in 1980,3 but in this book we will consider only the elec­ tions for national offices. Many books have been and continue to be written on American national elections in particular years, including 1980. They use a wide variety of approaches, ranging from the personal-observation-and-interpretation journalism of Theodore H. White, Elizabeth Drew, and Jules Witcover to Richard M. Scammon's authoritative biennial compilations of election returns.