UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE IS WINNING EVERYTHING? WHY CAMPAIGN CONSULTANTS OPERATE IN THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By COLIN SWEARINGEN Norman, Oklahoma 2011 i IS WINNING EVERYTHING? WHY CAMPAIGN CONSULTANTS OPERATE IN THE AMERICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY Dr. Ronald Keith Gaddie, Chair Dr. Glen Krutz Dr. Alisa Hicklin Dr. Scott Lamothe Dr. Aparna Mitra ii © Copyright by COLIN SWEARINGEN 2011 All Rights Reserved. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS When I was a brand new graduate student, I could not imagine what it would be like to write a dissertation. Developing and writing such a large project seemed to be a daunting task. While this has not been an easy task, the reality is that nobody writes the dissertation by themselves. Indeed, there are many individuals without whom this project would not have been possible. Their support has taken many forms: financial, emotional, temporal, and spiritual. I apologize at the beginning if I forget anyone – the error is mine. If there is one lesson that graduate school emphasizes, it is that the amount of information available in this world is unlimited and too much for any person to completely understand. To this extent, I can admit to knowing very little about consultants, politics, political science, and life in general. But one thing I do know is that I am far from perfect and in need of a Divine Savior, without whom I would not be where I am today. If graduate school is not a war of attrition, it certainly feels that way. Every student needs encouragement, love, and support – it is in this way I am the luckiest man on Earth (sorry, Lou Gehrig). My wife, Julia, has been more supportive of me than I could ever have hoped for. Her love and encouragement have been a constant throughout graduate school. For some reason she tolerates my academic ramblings and random thoughts on political science methodology. She truly is amazing. One of the first things I was told when arrived at OU was not to have a child as a graduate student. I took heed of that advice – but barely. Even though Kiara Grace will not be born for a month, she has already brought me great joy. I look forward to the new adventure that is parenthood. iv I am fortunate to have two parents who have worked hard to give me opportunities to grow and develop my intellectual curiosity. From private elementary education to music lessons, they provided a strong foundation for success. I cannot thank them enough! Writing and completing this dissertation was made much easier because I had the best possible committee chair – Keith Gaddie. He patiently weeded through multiple drafts of each chapter and provided extensive feedback throughout the entire process. His ideas were well-timed and thoughtful, and his advice was never off-based. I remain deeply indebted to him. The remainder of my committee has been a pleasure to work with. Alisa Hicklin Fryar, Glen Krutz, Scott Lamothe, and Aparna Mitra all provided excellent feedback and communication throughout the process. Their questions and critiques helped to strengthen the academic quality of this dissertation. The University of Oklahoma and the Political Science Department all contributed greatly to my graduate education. Special thanks go to my bosses during my time at OU, Dr. Mary Outwater at the Public Opinion Learning Lab and Dr. Jos Raadschelders at Public Administration Review. These two generous individuals provided me with a job and a great learning experience. Each significantly shaped my academic experience for the better – they were the best bosses I could have hoped for. In addition to employing me as a graduate assistant for two years, the Public Opinion Learning Lab generously supported my dissertation research. Dr. Amy Goodin, present director of the Lab funded my mail survey in full. Laurie Conaway, on staff at the Lab, spent quite a bit of time sorting through envelopes and letters for me. I am still v amazed at their kindness and generosity – I met with Amy to get feedback on my survey and received much more than expected. Thank you! Other faculty and staff within the Department have also been generous with their time and wisdom. In particular, Gary Copeland, who was my first faculty advisor, counseled me numerous times during my first few semesters about research and statistics. Always remember, Gary, somewhere in the world the Cleveland Indians won the 1997 World Series! I am also grateful for the cooperation and encouragement I received from my co- workers at the Oklahoma House of Representatives. Dr. Rick Farmer and Dante Giancola were two individuals were let me duck out of the office early from time to time to meet with Keith or other faculty at OU. Rick was also determined to see me get this project done, even with a full workload at the Capitol. His encouragement provided me with the motivation to stay on schedule. Lastly, I must thank all of my peers in the graduate department (both past and present). We went through many downs and a few ups together, and I will always treasure the memories. In no particular order, I must thank Matthew Krimmer, Natalie Jackson-Biffle, Walt Jatkowski, Curtis Ellis, Matt Field, Geeboo Song, Joe Ripberger, Michael Hammer, Matt Nowlin, Kuhika Gupta, Caitlin O’Grady, Tom “Robo” Robovsky, Maksym Kovalov, Beatrice Maldonado-Bird, Kwang-Hoon Lee, Paul Jorgenson, Mike Jones, Assem Dandashly, Heather Braum, Rebecca Cruise, Cyrus Contractor, Jarrett Jobe, Larisa Yun, and Rich Dodge. vi Table of Contents List of Tables ix List of Figures xi Abstract xii Chapter 1: From Plato to Axelrod - An Examination into the Development of the Campaign Professionals Introduction................................................................................................................... 1 Do Consultants Really Matter?..................................................................................... 3 What else do Political Scientists Know about Consultants ......................................... 6 Theoretical Underpinnings: Behavioral Theory of the Firm ..................................... 10 Democracy and Consultants ....................................................................................... 17 Consulting in the Greek City-States: A Story of Rival Firms ................................... 19 Family Matters: Consulting During the Roman Republic .......................................... 23 Campaign Consulting in Early America..................................................................... 27 Martin Van Buren: “The Little Magician”.................................................................. 29 Marcus Alonzo Hanna: A New Kind of Boss............................................................. 33 Twentieth Century American Consultants: The Growth of a Profession ................... 37 Organization of the Dissertation ................................................................................ 46 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 48 Chapter 2: Data & Methods Interviewing ............................................................................................................... 49 Memoirs ...................................................................................................................... 50 Survey Data................................................................................................................. 51 We Need New Data .................................................................................................... 52 Web-Based Surveys.................................................................................................... 56 The Sample ................................................................................................................. 61 The Survey.................................................................................................................. 62 The Response Rate...................................................................................................... 65 Chapter 3: Taking the Plunge - Consultant Risk and Client Cultivation Introduction................................................................................................................. 69 What is Risk? .............................................................................................................. 70 Risk and the Political System ..................................................................................... 73 Theoretical Framework 1: Behavioral Theory of the Firm ........................................ 77 Theoretical Framework 2: Upper Echelons and Agency Theory ............................... 88 Variable Measurements .............................................................................................. 89 Methodology............................................................................................................... 99 Findings..................................................................................................................... 100 Disaggregating Risk ................................................................................................. 108 Findings, Part 2 ......................................................................................................... 112 Conclusion ...............................................................................................................