UK OFFICIAL Quantum Information Processing Landscape 2020: Prospects for UK Defence and Security Andrew Middleton and Stephen Till Cyber & Information Systems Division Dstl Porton Down Salisbury SP4 0JQ Lt Cdr Matt Steele RN Strategic Command Jt User Intelligence & Cyber DSTL/TR121783 June 2020 © Crown Copyright 2020 UK OFFICIAL Draft for comment UK OFFICIAL Release Conditions This document has been prepared for MOD and, unless indicated, may be used and circulated in accordance with the conditions of the Order under which it was supplied. It may not be used or copied for any non-Governmental or commercial purpose without the written agreement of Dstl. © Crown Copyright 2020 Intellectual Property Department Defence Science and Technology Laboratory Porton Down, Salisbury, Wiltshire SP4 0JQ Authorisation Role Name Date Project Manager Fiona Beeching Technical Reviewer Dr Andrew Bennett Authors Andrew Middleton / Stephen Till / Lt Cdr Matt Steele RN UK OFFICIAL Draft for comment UK OFFICIAL Executive summary Powered by the transistor and, later, the integrated circuit, technologies belonging to the ‘First Quantum Revolution’ came from understanding the nature of quantum mechanics. These devices are ubiquitous and critical to daily life: we wear them, we access and process information through them and they enable us to communicate. The ‘Second Quantum Revolution’ will see the introduction of technologies that exploit the subtler quantum effects and it is expected to have even greater impact. Many regard the rush to develop quantum computing as a new ‘space race’. Through counterintuitive phenomena such as quantum entanglement and quantum superposition, a large-scale quantum computer is expected to surpass the best digital super computer by orders of magnitude and allow us to simulate the complexities of the natural world as never before. Globally, progress over the past 5 years has been remarkable, and in October 2019 Google claimed to have achieved ‘quantum supremacy’ – that is, a programmable quantum computer able to solve a problem that classical computers practically cannot. Within the UK during 2014, a coherent National Programme was planned and a first phase of five years Government support for translational R&D (exploiting decades of previous publicly-funded fundamental research in universities) to build a sovereign quantum technology industry sector was announced in the Autumn Statement. A further five years Government support for the National Quantum Technology Programme (NQTP), which spans quantum timing, sensing, communications and computing and simulation, was announced in the 2019 Autumn Statement including the creation of a National Quantum Computing Centre. Concurrently, the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) launched a DARPA-like project in 20141 to develop quantum technologies at pace which principally focussed on quantum sensors for position, navigation and timing (PNT) and comprised clocks, gravity sensors and inertial force sensors. The project complements work in the NQTP and Dstl and the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) have been NQTP Partners since the National Programme’s inception. In 2014, Quantum Information Processing (QIP) was judged too immature for near term Defence and Security benefit and only technology watch activities (with an emphasis on quantum algorithms) have been carried on. However, the progress achieved both nationally and globally has exceeded early expectations and a technology watch stance is no longer appropriate for MOD. Accordingly, Dstl and MOD have surveyed the national and global positions in QIP and this landscape report is one of the products produced. The intended readership comprises senior policy and decision makers in Defence and Security. This document critically surveys UK R&D in QIP hardware and software to inform what MOD investment should be considered to give Defence and Security benefit from QIP during the near term (Era 1, 2020 – 2025), medium term (Era 2, 2025 – 2030) and further into the future (Era 3, 2030 and beyond). Special attention is directed towards any disruptive benefits which are likely to result from early adoption of this emerging technology during Era 1. 1 During Financial Year 2017-18, the project was renamed Quantum Sensing and currently has funding until 2022 DSTL/TR121783 i UK OFFICIAL Draft for comment UK OFFICIAL As was done with the UK Quantum Technology Landscape document prepared by Dstl in 2013 (DSTL/PUB75620), this version is being released to UK colleagues and Stakeholders for comment, correction (if errors or misunderstandings are found in the document), or for additional input. Section 5 - A strategy for UK Defence and Security capability in QIP is self contained; it may be read independently of the rest of the document although references to other parts of the text are included where more detail would help understanding. After review, the document will be finalised and issued. The list of Key Points below gives a synopsis of the sections and sub-sections throughout the text. Page ii DSTL/TR121783 UK OFFICIAL Draft for comment UK OFFICIAL List of Key Points Section Page KP1 1.1 1 This document critically surveys emerging Quantum Information Processing technologies in the UK and the rest of the world. In the approaching second (‘Quantum 2.0’) Information Age, QIP is expected to transform business functions and wider society, and could give disruptive early adopter benefits. The document identifies technologies and applications expected to appear during Era 1 (2020 – 2025) and recommends MOD re-consider its current technology watch-only stance on QIP KP2 1.2 2 The UK Budget of 2018 announced government funding to develop a large-scale quantum computer, including new quantum algorithms, programming languages, techniques for error detection, applications and a QIP-ready workforce KP3 2 6 Quantum computers are analogue machines which operate in fundamentally different ways to conventional analogue and digital computers. At least initially they will be hybrid quantum-digital machines KP4 2.1 7 Quantum computers represent information using qubits which differ from bits used by classical computers by being able to represent not just the values 0 and 1 but also all possible intermediate numbers, including complex numbers, at the same time KP5 2.2 8 There are different types of quantum computer which operate in very different ways and at different levels of commercial maturity. Defence and Security should also be aware that these compete with each other and with digital silicon solutions to offer the ‘best’ solution to specific problems KP6 2.2.1 9 Circuit model quantum computers have similarities to conventional digital computers but have recently been demonstrated (by Google’s Sycamore device) to have superior performance for some tasks KP7 2.2.2 10 Adiabatic quantum computers (or quantum annealers used to solve optimisation problems) are large machines which have been in development for over a decade and are available commercially from D-Wave Systems KP8 2.3 10 Benchmarking is essential to determine whether digital technologies may be superior to early quantum computers in the near-term DSTL/TR121783 iii UK OFFICIAL Draft for comment UK OFFICIAL KP9 3 12 Quantum computers work by carefully manipulating qubit states using lasers and/or electromagnetic fields. Configured qubits form quantum gates and a set of quantum gates collectively implement a quantum algorithm KP10 3.1 12 Future computer-based decision support systems (DSSs) will exploit ‘Big Data’ and QIP will help to manage the data deluge KP11 3.2 13 Although QIP systems are crucial to meeting the computational demands of future decision support systems, existing (classical) algorithms must be recast to run on quantum computers KP12 3.2.1 14 Out of the quantum algorithms found in the quantum algorithm zoo; many are of academic interest only and just a few are expected to be of value to Defence and Security or the wider economy KP13 3.2.2 15 Five Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) algorithms are expected to provide value to Defence and Security in Era 1 KP14 3.2.3 15 A further five NISQ algorithms may have value for Defence and Security during Era 1 KP15 3.2.4 16 Two quantum algorithms requiring large, fault- tolerant quantum computers may benefit Defence and Security during Era 3 KP16 3.3 16 Artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to deliver business functions KP17 3.3.1 17 Automated data analysis using digital machines is becoming mature KP18 3.3.2 18 Neural nets on digital machines have been developed for control systems, sensor processing, AI / machine learning, situational understanding and other applications KP19 3.3.3 20 There is the potential for overwhelming quantum speedup by running neural nets on quantum computers (‘quantum neural nets’) KP20 3.3.4 21 Training neural nets is not trivial and requires careful selection of training sets. However, this training data also can be used for quantum neural net calculations provided it is suitably modified to be input to the quantum computer KP21 4 23 QIP can be applied across all Enterprise activities where IT is already in use KP22 4.1 23 Over the next 15 years QIP will impact the sifting, compiling, extraction and presentation of information to human decision makers through faster AI execution KP23 4.1.2 24 For Enterprise Management, the value of QIP is expected to be accurate, rapid pattern matching Page iv DSTL/TR121783 UK OFFICIAL Draft for comment UK OFFICIAL within ‘Big Data’ allowing high quality information to be extracted and used to facilitate timely, accurate decisions. Benchmarking, as QIP and digital platforms develop, will confirm or refute this KP24 4.2 25 Quantum Computing is expected to impact secure data transmission over networks, authentication of both traffic and participant identity and to improve network immunity to attack KP25 4.2.1 26 Civilian enterprises have the same requirements as Defence and Security, but on larger scale and early adoption for commercial applications is essential to attract the investment and R&D activity needed to mature the technology.