THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS This PDF is available at http://nap.edu/21852 SHARE Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change (2016) DETAILS 186 pages | 7 x 10 | PAPERBACK ISBN 978-0-309-38094-2 | DOI 10.17226/21852 CONTRIBUTORS GET THIS BOOK Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution; Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine FIND RELATED TITLES SUGGESTED CITATION National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/21852. 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Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation under contract number 2015-63077, the Heising-Simons Foundation under contract number 2015-095, the Litterman Family Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX15AW55G, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number EE-133E-15-SE-1748, and the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-SC0014256, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opin- ions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-38094-2 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-38094-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016946880 Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21852 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Cover imagery courtesy of Cameron Beccario, http://earth.nullschool.net. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Acad- emies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852. Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the char- ter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engi­ neering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public under- standing in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medi- cine at www.national­academies.org. Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change COMMITTEE ON EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ATTRIBUTION DAVID W. TITLEY (Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park GABRIELE HEGERL, University of Edinburgh, UK KATHARINE L. JACOBS, University of Arizona, Tucson PHILIP W. MOTE, Oregon State University, Corvallis CHRISTOPHER J. PACIOREK, University of California, Berkeley J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, University of Georgia, Athens THEODORE G. SHEPHERD, University of Reading, UK ADAM H. SOBEL, Columbia University, New York, NY JOHN WALSH, University of Alaska, Fairbanks FRANCIS W. ZWIERS, University of Victoria, BC, Canada National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff KATHERINE THOMAS, Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant v Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO LANCE F. BOSART, University at Albany-SUNY, NY MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, FL HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, NY MAURA HAGAN, Utah State University, Logan TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden ANTHONY JANETOS, Boston University, MA EVERETTE JOSEPH, University at Albany-SUNY, NY RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, NC JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, WA JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ Ocean Studies Board Liaison DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA Polar Research Board Liaison JENNIFER FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, MA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Program Director KATHERINE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer vii Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant viii Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change Preface xtreme weather has affected human society since the beginning of recorded history and certainly long before then. Humans, along with every other living Ething on the Earth, have adapted to a certain range of variability in the weather. Although extreme weather can cause loss of life and significant damage to property, people and virtually every other creature have, at least to some degree, adapted to the infrequent extremes they experience within their normal climatic zone. Humans’ use of fossil fuel since the start of the Industrial Revolution has begun to modify the Earth’s climate in ways that few could have imagined a century ago. The consequences of this change to the climate are seemingly everywhere: average tem- peratures are rising, precipitation patterns are changing, ice sheets are melting, and sea levels are rising. These changes are affecting the availability and quality of water supplies, how and where food is grown, and even the very fabric of ecosystems on land and in the sea. Despite these profound changes, climate change and its associated risks still may appear to many people as distant and remote in both