Rethinking Nuclear Can We Change the World’s Cumulative Carbon Emissions Soon Enough? Joseph B. Lassiter, III Senior Fellow Senator John Heinz Professor of Management Practice In Environmental Management, Retired Harvard Business School April 2016 Copyright @ 2016 President & Fellows of Harvard College 1 Venture Capital Return Profile 1995 - 2009 636 Investments $1,200 MM Cost / $3,000 MM Value - 2.5X 0.7 62.4% 0.6 52.8% 0.5 0.4 0.3 20.1% 0.2 15.3% 15.7% 12.6% % of Total Cost or Terminal Value Terminal or Cost Total of % 9.1% 0.1 5.3% 3.5% 3.1% 0 < 1 X 1X to 3X 3X to 6X > 1 0 X 6X to 10X Multiple on Invested Capital % of Cost % of Value Can you get into the “Big” Ideas? Private Capital Ecosystem for US and Canadian Privately Funded Nuclear Efforts • Approximately $1.6+ billion invested in last 10 years • Professional Investors: • Venrock, NEA, RedPoint, Charles River, Lux Capital, Founders Fund, Braemar, Intellectual Ventures, Khosla Ventures, The Wellcome Trust, RussNano, Chrysalix, SDTC, Mithral, Y-Combinator • High Net Worth Individuals – Gates, Bezos, Samberg • SWF: Saudi, Russian • Corporates – Lockheed, General Atomic, Fluor, Toshiba, • Existing Industry Strategic Partners • Many are circling • Do they have the “innovators dilemma” • Nuclear utilities engaged in discussions • Prototype Testing Announced: TerraPower (China) , ThorCon (Indonesia) and Terrestrial (Canada) • Industrial MOUs signed in TerraPower (China) and ThorCon Power (Indonesia) Rothrock March 31, 2016 3 Funded Nuclear Efforts: Advanced Reactor Nascent Industry 4 Rothrock March 31, 2016 Nuclear Entrants Gen-III+ Passive Gen-IV Passive Gen-IV Passive Gen-IV Passive LWRs SFRs HTGRs MSRs Infrastructure Westinghouse AP-1000 Style TerraPower TWR Site Excavation Only Site Excavation Only GE-Hitachi/Areva Construction (Korea/China/Russia) NuScale GE-PRISM PBMR Terrestrial Energy UPower Areva NGNP ThorCon Factory General Atomic EM2 Transatomic Manufacture Moltex (Reactor Module) (Reactor Module (Reactor Module and (Reactor Module and and Whole Plant) Whole Plant?) Whole Plant) Repair? Upgrade and Repair Upgrade and Repair Upgrade and Repair Service and By Swap Out Fueling Centralized No Refueling Continuous Refueling Continuous Refueling Fuel Processing Centralized Fuel Processing Reactor Hi P/Low Temp Atm P/Hi Temp Hi P/Hi Temp Atm P/Hi Temp Physics Impact Water Liquid Metal Sodium He Gas Na/Be/Li Salts Nuclear Must Be Cheaper Than Coal... Maybe Even Natural Gas (< $0.05/kWh by 2025) Uncertain, Lumpy Investments and Technology Cost Curve Forecasts Gen-III+ LWRs AP-1000 & NuScale Asian Pulverized SC Coal Gen-IV MSRs Gen-IV SFRs ThorCon, Terrestrial, and Transatomic PRISM, TerraPower, & UPower North America CCGT Cost per kWh Cost per Gen-IV HTGRs/GFRs GA & Areva NGNP Time Nuclear Must Be As Scalable as Coal (50-100 GWe/yr by 2030) Build Everything on an Assembly Line Make Everything Repairable & Upgradeable On Site ● Reactor yard produces 150--500 ton blocks. About 100 blocks per 1GWe plant. ● Blocks are pre-coated, pre-piped, pre-wired, pre-tested. ● Focus quality control at the block and sub-block level. ● Blocks barged to site, dropped into place, and welded together. ● No major repairs or upgrades on-site....ship the block back to the yard. 100 GWe/year yard block diagram; 2,000,000 tons steel per year.