SOCIAL RESEARCH NUMBER: 1/2018 PUBLICATION DATE: 09/01/2018 Evaluation of the Coastal and Sustainable Tourism Projects © Crown Copyright Digital ISBN 978-1-78903-321-2 Evaluation of the Coastal and Sustainable Tourism Projects Regeneris Consulting in partnership with The Tourism Company Full Research Report: Regeneris Consulting and the Tourism Company (2017). Evaluation of the Costal and Sustainable Tourism Projects. Cardiff: Welsh Government, GSR report number 1/2018. Available at: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/evaluation-coastal- sustainable-tourism-projects/?lang=en Views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government For further information please contact: Jo Coates Social Research and Information Division Welsh Government Cathays Park Cardiff CF10 3NQ Tel: 0300 025 5540 Email: [email protected] Table of contents List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... 2 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................... 4 Glossary ............................................................................................................................. 5 1. Introduction.................................................................................................................. 6 2. Methodology .............................................................................................................. 12 3. Sustainable South Wales Cycling – Cognation ......................................................... 49 4. Sustainable One Historic Garden .............................................................................. 68 5. Sustainable: North Wales Cycling ............................................................................. 84 6. Sustainable: The Eryri Centre of Excellence ........................................................... 101 7. Coastal: Watersports - Swansea Bay ...................................................................... 119 8. Coastal: Aberdaron – National Trust ....................................................................... 140 9. Coastal: Pembrokeshire Coastal ............................................................................. 157 10. Coastal: Saundersfoot ............................................................................................. 175 11. The Green Sea Programme .................................................................................... 189 12. Conclusions, Recommendations and Lessons ........................................................ 214 Annex A - Tourism Business Survey .............................................................................. 225 Annex B - Consultations ................................................................................................ 227 1 List of Tables Table 1.1: Funding into Sustainable and Coastal Tourism (£s), claimed in Sept. 2015 ......... 9 Table 2.1: Attractions for which there is published visits data .............................................. 17 Table 2.2 Local Authorities and ERDF investments ............................................................. 26 Table 2.3 Visitor numbers and spending by local authority area (annual av. 2010-2012) .... 29 Table 2.4 Priorities from Achieving Our Potential 2006 - 2013 ............................................ 33 Table 2.5 ERDF Grant Awarded (£m) .................................................................................. 36 Table 2.6 Project Assessment Criteria ................................................................................. 37 Table 2.7 Evolution in Expenditure and Grant Approved ..................................................... 39 Table 2.8 ERDF Grant Paid Over Time, Cumulative (£m) ................................................... 40 Table 2.9 Categories of Expenditure, Total Forecast Cost, June 2015 (£m) ....................... 40 Table 2.10 Total Forecast Income, June 2015 (£m) ............................................................ 42 Table 2.11 Projected Final Achievement ............................................................................. 44 Table 3.1 Focus of the Proposed Cognation Investments ................................................... 50 Table 3.2 Location of Main Investment Projects .................................................................. 53 Table 3.3 Cognation Funding Profile and Outturn ................................................................ 54 Table 3.4 Cognation Expenditure and Funding Outturn by Investment, June 2015 ............. 55 Table 3.5 Lifetime Revenue Expenditure, June 2015 .......................................................... 56 Table 3.6 Cognation Investment and Support Activities ....................................................... 57 Table 3.7 Achievement of Output Targets ........................................................................... 60 Table 3.8 Achievement of Outcome Targets ........................................................................ 60 Table 3.9 Visit Analysis for 2013, Cardiff University ............................................................. 61 Table 3.10: Visits to Cwmcarn and Afan Forest Park Trails, 2007 to June 2015 ................. 62 Table 4.1: Location of Investment Projects .......................................................................... 69 Table 4.2: Funding Profile and Out-turn (£m) ...................................................................... 72 Table 4.3: Expenditure and Funding Outturn by Investment Strand, June 2015 .................. 73 Table 4.4 Activities delivered and variations ........................................................................ 75 Table 4.5: Achievement of Overall Output Targets .............................................................. 78 Table 4.6: Achievement of Overall Outcome Targets .......................................................... 79 Table 4.7: Visitor Numbers at One Historic Garden Sites, 2006-12 ..................................... 79 Table 5.1: Location of Projects............................................................................................. 85 Table 5.2 Funding Profile and Outturn ................................................................................. 87 Table 5.3 Expenditure and Funding Outturn by Investment Strand, 2015 ........................... 88 Table 5.4 Match funding profile (£ millions) ......................................................................... 89 Table 5.5: Delivering of Investments .................................................................................... 91 2 Table 5.6 Achievement of Overall Output Targets ............................................................... 93 Table 5.7 Achievement of Output Targets by Investment Projects ...................................... 94 Table 5.8: Achievement of Overall Outcome Targets .......................................................... 95 Table 5.9: Achievement of Outcome Targets by Investment Projects.................................. 95 Table 5.10 Visit Wales Visitor Survey numbers ................................................................... 96 Table 5.11: Visitor Numbers at Brenig Forest Attractions .................................................... 96 Table 6.1: Location of Investment Projects ........................................................................ 104 Table 6.2 Funding Profile and Outturn ............................................................................... 105 Table 6.3 Expenditure and Funding Outturn by Investment Strand, June 2015 ................. 106 Table 6.4: Overheads, June 2015 ...................................................................................... 107 Table 6.5: Activities delivered and variations ..................................................................... 108 Table 6.6: Achievement of Overall Output Targets ............................................................ 111 Table 6.7 Achievement of Output Targets by Investment Projects .................................... 112 Table 6.8 Achievement of Overall Outcome Targets ......................................................... 112 Table 6.9 Achievement of Outcome Targets by Investment Projects................................. 113 Table 6.10 Visitor Numbers by Attraction ........................................................................... 114 Table 7.1 Location of investment projects .......................................................................... 121 Table 7.2 Funding profile and outturn (£m) ........................................................................ 123 Table 7.3 Expenditure and funding outturn by investment strand, June 2015 ................... 123 Table 7.4 Cost breakdown ................................................................................................. 124 Table 7.5: Activities Delivered ............................................................................................ 125 Table 7.6 Achievement of Overall Output Targets ............................................................. 129 Table 7.7 Achievement of general outcomes ..................................................................... 131 Table 7.8 User numbers for 360° Beach and Watersports Centre ..................................... 134 Table 8.1:Location of Investment Projects ........................................................................