Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2040 Vision FINAL REPORT July 10, 2014 By Chris Hendrickson, Allen Biehler, Yeganeh Mashayekh Carnegie Mellon University COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CONTRACT # CMUIGA2012 WORK ORDER # CMU 1 Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. FHWA-PA-2014-004-CMU WO 1 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date July 10, 2014 Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2040 Vision 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. FHWA-PA-2014-004-CMU WO 1 Yeganeh Mashayekh, Allen Biehler and Chris Hendrickson 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Avenue 11. Contract or Grant No. Pittsburgh, PA 15213 CMUIGA2012 - CMU WO 1 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation Final Report: July 11, 2013 to July 10, 2014 Bureau of Planning and Research Commonwealth Keystone Building 400 North Street, 6th Floor 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Harrisburg, PA 17120-0064 15. Supplementary Notes N/A 16. Abstract The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) commissioned a one-year project, Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2040 Vision, with researchers at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) to assess the implications of connected and autonomous vehicles on the management and operation of the state’s surface transportation system. This report explores the impacts of connected and autonomous vehicles on design and investment decisions, communication devices investment, real-time data usage, existing infrastructure, workforce training needs, driver licensing and freight flow as they relate to PennDOT. For each of these areas, a set of recommendations has been provided. As connected and autonomous technologies are advancing, it is recommended that PennDOT take these actions in a timely manner. A timeline for the recommended actions has been provided to help PennDOT plan accordingly. The timelines are based on current available information and the time frames are likely to change over time. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement No restrictions. This document is available Vehicle Automation, Automated Highway, Connected Vehicles, Autonomous from the National Technical Information Service, Vehicles Springfield, VA 22161 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 163 (70 pages excluding appendix) N/A Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2040 Vision Contract No. CMUIGA2012 - Work order No. 1 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................. v Project Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Background ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Chapter 1: Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Experts Workshop ............................................................... 9 Chapter 2: Impacts to Design and Investment Decisions ...................................................................................... 10 Chapter 3: Real‐Time Data Usage ................................................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 4: Impacts to Existing Infrastructure ........................................................................................................... 24 Chapter 5: Impacts to Workforce Training Needs ................................................................................................... 32 Chapter 6: Impacts to Driver Licensing ........................................................................................................................ 38 Chapter 7: Impacts to Communication Devices Investment ................................................................................ 44 Chapter 8: Impacts to Freight Flow ............................................................................................................................... 48 Timeline ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 53 Acknowledgment ................................................................................................................................................................... 55 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................................................... 56 Appendix ................................................................................................................................................................................... 62 List of Figures Figure 1: Average Annual Miles Traveled Vs. Age .................................................................................................. 14 Figure 2: Project Area (I‐376 and Mon‐Fayette Expressway) ........................................................................... 24 Figure 3: 24‐hour traffic volume comparison along the Parkway East between Fort Pitt Tunnel and Squirrel Hill Tunnel .............................................................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 4: Traffic Signals Operated and/or Maintained by Cranberry Township ........................................ 28 Figure 5: Map of the Penn Circle study area ............................................................................................................... 28 Figure 6: Recommended Timeframe for PennDOT's Actions with regards to Connected and Autonomous Vehicles .......................................................................................................................................................... 54 List of Tables Table 1: Characteristics of Enacted State Laws on Autonomous Vehicles ....................................................... 7 Table 2: Factors Impacting Capacity and Flow ......................................................................................................... 12 Table 3: V2I applications needing DSRC roadside unit installation ................................................................. 45 Carnegie Mellon University iii Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2040 Vision Contract No. CMUIGA2012 - Work order No. 1 This work was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, or the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania at the time of publication. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. Carnegie Mellon University iv Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2040 Vision Contract No. CMUIGA2012 - Work order No. 1 Executive Summary The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) commissioned a one‐year project, Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2040 Vision, with researchers at Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) to assess the implications of connected and autonomous vehicles on the management and operation of the state’s surface transportation system. This report explores the impacts of connected and autonomous vehicles on design and investment decisions, communication devices investment, real‐time data usage, existing infrastructure, workforce training needs, driver licensing and freight flow as they relate to PennDOT. Findings of this report are based on an assumed condition that connected and autonomous technology will be incorporated into all motor vehicles by 2040. While the actual date for full incorporation will depend on the pace and scale of connected and autonomous technology adoption, the assumed 2040 date in this report provides context for PennDOT decision makers facing a future involving these vehicles. Design and Infrastructure Investment Design and investment decisions related to ITS message signs, radio advisories, lane capacity, clear zones, width of lanes and medians, and traffic signals are disaggregated into groups of connected, autonomous and connected automated environments. There are numerous uncertainties that make design and investment decisions related to lane capacity and highway right‐of‐way cross‐section challenging including: Lack of research and demonstration data, Travel demand may change significantly, Market penetration of new technology, Transit demand, Shape and weight of vehicles, Induced demand due to less onerous driving, and Modal shifts of freight and passengers. Nonetheless, it is