S. HRG. 105±587 CURRENT AND PROJECTED NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES HEARING BEFORE THE SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE OF THE UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FIFTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION ON CURRENT AND PROJECTED NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 1998 Printed for the use of the Select Committee on Intelligence ( U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 51±954 WASHINGTON : 1998 SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama, Chairman J. ROBERT KERREY, Nebraska, Vice Chairman JOHN H. CHAFEE, Rhode Island JOHN GLENN, Ohio RICHARD G. LUGAR, Indiana RICHARD H. BRYAN, Nevada MIKE DEWINE, Ohio BOB GRAHAM, Florida JON KYL, Arizona JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts JAMES M. INHOFE, Oklahoma MAX BAUCUS, Montana ORRIN G. HATCH, Utah CHARLES S. ROBB, Virginia PAT ROBERTS, Kansas FRANK R. LAUTENBERG, New Jersey WAYNE ALLARD, Colorado CARL LEVIN, Michigan DAN COATS, Indiana TRENT LOTT, Mississippi, Ex Officio THOMAS A. DASCHLE, South Dakota, Ex Officio TAYLOR W. LAWRENCE, Staff Director CHRISTOPHER C. STRAUB, Minority Staff Director KATHLEEN P. MCGHEE, Chief Clerk (II) C O N T E N T S Page Hearing held in Washington DC: Wednesday, January 28, 1998 ......................................................................... 1 Statement of: Allard, Hon. Wayne, a U.S. Senator from the State of Colorado ................. 11 Baucus, Hon. Max, a U.S. Senator from the State of Montana .................... 10 Bryant, Robert, Deputy Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation ............. 26 DeWine, Hon. Mike, a U.S. Senator from the State of Ohio ......................... 88 Freeh, Hon. Louis J., Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation ................. 27 Glenn, Hon. John, a U.S. Senator from the State of Ohio ............................ 80 Hughes, Patrick M., Lieutenant General, USA, Director, Defense Intel- ligence Agency ............................................................................................... 70 Inhofe, Hon. James M., a U.S. Senator from the State of Oklahoma .......... 8 Kerrey, Hon. J. Robert, a U.S. Senator from the State of Nebraska ........... 5 Lugar, Hon. Richard G., a U.S. Senator from the State of Indiana ............. 9 Oakley, Hon. Phyllis E., Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research, Department of State ............................................................ 45 Robb, Hon. Charles S., a U.S. Senator from the Commonwealth of Vir- ginia ............................................................................................................... 96 Roberts, Hon. Pat, a U.S. Senator from the State of Kansas ....................... 91 Shelby Hon. Richard C., a U.S. Senator from the State of Alabama ........... 1 Tenet, Hon. George J., Director of Central Intelligence ................................ 12 Testimony of: Bryant, Robert, Deputy Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation ............. 86 Hughes, Patrick M., Lieutenant General, USA, Director, Defense Intel- ligence Agency ............................................................................................... 70 Oakley, Hon. Phyllis E., Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research, Department of State ............................................................ 43 Tenet, Hon. George J., Director of Central Intelligence ................................ 19 Supplemental materials, letters, articles, etc.: Questions for the record, dated March 12, 1998, submitted to the Hon. George J. Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence ...................................... 105 Questions for the record, dated March 12, 1998, submitted to the Hon. Louis J. Freeh, Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation ....................... 111 Questions for the record, dated March 12, 1998, submitted to Lt. General Patrick M. Hughes, USA, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency ............. 113 Questions for the record, dated March 12, 1998, submitted to the Hon. Phyllis E. Oakley, Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research, Department of State .................................................................... 118 Letter of transmittal, dated June 9, 1998, responses to questions for the record from the U.S. Department of Justice ........................................ 154 Letter of transmittal, dated June 12, 1998, responses to questions for the record from Defense Intelligence Agency ............................................. 167 Letter of transmittal, dated June 15, 1998, responses to questions for the record from U.S. Department of State .................................................. 122 Letter of transmittal, dated July 24, 1998, responses to questions for the record from Central Intelligence Agency .............................................. 133 (III) CURRENT AND PROJECTED NATIONAL SECURITY THREATS TO THE UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 28, 1998 U.S. SENATE, SELECT COMMITTEE ON INTELLIGENCE, Washington, DC. The Select Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:37 o'clock a.m., in Room SH±216, Hart Senate Office Building, the Honorable Richard Shelby Chairman of the Committee, presiding. Present: Senators Shelby, Lugar, DeWine, Inhofe, Roberts, Al- lard, Kerrey of Nebraska, Glenn, Baucus and Robb. Also Present: Taylor Lawrence, Staff Director; Chris Straub, Mi- nority Staff Director; Dan Gallington, General Counsel; Don Mitch- ell, Professional Staff; and Kathleen McGhee, Chief Clerk. Chairman SHELBY. The Committee will come to order. Last year marked the 50th anniversary of the enactment of the National Security Act, the legislation that created the Central In- telligence Agency and established the national defense and intel- ligence structure for the Cold War era. This year, we approach an equally significant anniversaryÐNo- vember 1999 will mark the tenth anniversary of the fall of the Ber- lin Wall, the beginning of the end of the Cold War, and the begin- ning of the post-Cold War era. Today, it is fitting that the Committee meet publicly, at the be- ginning of a new session of Congress, to hear the Intelligence Com- munity's views regarding the nature and extent of the changing na- tional security threats to the U.S. The identification and analysis of these threats are crucial to de- fining and conducting our nation's foreign policy. Our intelligence on these threats provides the basis for our defense strategy and planning, informs our budget and procurement choices, and sup- ports our military forces when they go into action. To be useful, intelligence must be timely and, of course, accurate. Equally important, the Intelligence Community must ``call it as it sees it''Ðreporting the facts to policymakers without bias, even if the intelligence findings do not support a particular policy or de- cision. Every day, U.S. policymakers and military forces rely on Intel- ligence Community reporting. By its very nature, most of this infor- mation must be classified to protect the sources and methods from which it is derived. Today we meet in open session so that, at a time of waning inter- est in international affairs, the American people may learn about the very real threats that we face in the post-Cold War era. (1) 2 We look forward to hearing from Director Tenet and other wit- nesses on the broad range of threats to U.S. national security. Many of the issues we will discuss bear directly on critical policy choices facing the administration and the Congress today and in the near future, and raise a number of complex questions. For ex- ample: Once again, Iraq is refusing to allow UN inspectors full access to its weapons programs. How strong is Saddam Hussein within his own country that he can defy the international community? Is he, in fact, better off than he was before he instigated the cur- rent crisis over weapons inspections? What is the status of the Iraqi weapons programs? How quickly could these programs be ex- panded or revived if sanctions were removed? Is it true, as has been suggested in the press, that Iraq tested biological and/or chemical weapons on human beings? Will Saddam Hussein ever comply with the UN resolutions? And on the other side of the Shatt al Arab, we have Iran. Many of us saw Iranian President Khatami's recent television interview. What do his remarks then and subsequentlyÐand the response of his hardline opponentsÐmean for US-Iranian relations? Most critically, has the Intelligence Community seen any reduc- tion in Iranian support for international terrorism, or slackening in Iran's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, since the election? How soon will Iran deploy new ballistic missiles capable of threatening Israel and other U.S. allies? Iran of course is only one of more than a dozen or so countries which possess or are developing ballistic missile systems, and one of over two dozen nations that are developing weapons of mass de- struction. I am extremely concerned of the potential that such weapons will be used, or that someone somewhere will plausibly threaten to use such weapons, against the United States, our troops, our allies or our interests in the not too distant future. After all, it has already happenedÐthe single greatest loss of life by American forces in the Persian Gulf War came when an Iraqi SCUD crashed into a barracks in Saudi Arabia. How does the Intelligence Community assess the global ballistic missile threat to the United StatesÐthe greatest single threat to our national security? The Committee is looking forward to reviewing in the very near future the updated National Intelligence Estimate on this