UNIVERSIDAD PONTIFICIA COMILLAS ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIERÍA (ICAI) OFFICIAL MASTER'S DEGREE IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY Master’s Thesis DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT TRANSITIONING TO A FULLY ELECTRIFIED MODEL Author: Uxue Goitia Barrenetxea Supervisor: Beatriz Crisóstomo Merino COMPANY: IBERDROLA S.A. Madrid, 21st July 2019 UNIVERSIDAD PONTIFICIA COMILLAS ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIERÍA (ICAI) OFFICIAL MASTER'S DEGREE IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY Master’s Thesis DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE URBAN PUBLIC TRANSPORT TRANSITIONING TO A FULLY ELECTRIFIED MODEL Author: Uxue Goitia Barrenetxea Supervisor: Beatriz Crisóstomo Merino COMPANY: IBERDROLA S.A. Madrid, 21st July 2019 SUMMARY The transition from conventionally fuelled urban buses towards electric buses seems inevitable given the demands of civil society and public authorities and the increasing ecological requirements of EU policies. However, the global bus fleet is still predominantly powered by diesel and CNG, and, with the exception of China, the share of electric buses in the total fleet is minimal. Therefore, there is still much work to do in this matter. Momentum for eBuses is building globally even if the large-scale adoption of electric mobility solutions for urban public transport is accompanied by a large number of technical and economic barriers. The key actors for this transition will be municipalities. Since local conditions are critical for the choice of the eBus solution variation, local authorities will need to promote the implementation of this technology and find the optimal solution design for their municipality. To find suitable technological, economic and ecological solutions in such complex processes, it is necessary to follow appropriate decision-making tools, which should be able to consider each relevant variable (internal and external) of the eBus solution. Also, for municipalities to be successful, their ability to pool and look after the interests of all stakeholders involved in the process will be key. When adequate solutions are found considering all the relevant input data, the eBus is a viable alternative to diesel and CNG buses in technical, economic and environmental terms. In fact, if the environmental costs were internalized, the eBus would be much more competitive than the rest of the current alternatives. Municipalities still have many barriers of different nature to overcome so that the adoption of eBuses reaches or exceeds China's penetration levels. However, everything seems to indicate that if the process is carried out in a gradual, reasonable manner and with the collaboration of all the actors involved, the result will be beneficial for all and it will be a great industrial opportunity for Europe. Official Master’s Degree in the Electric Power Industry Detailed analysis of the implications of the urban public transport transitioning to a fully electrified model TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ____________________________________________________ 1 1.1. OBJECTIVE __________________________________________________________ 3 1.2. METHODOLOGY ______________________________________________________ 3 2. STATE OF THE ART _________________________________________________ 5 2.1.1. Scope on mobility and public transport _______________________________________ 5 2.1.2. Expected benefits of transport electrification __________________________________ 7 2.2. CURRENT SITUATION OF THE EBUS ______________________________________ 9 2.2.1. Current demand of eBuses ________________________________________________ 10 2.2.1.1. China _______________________________________________________________ 10 2.2.1.2. Europe ______________________________________________________________ 12 2.2.1.3. The rest of the world __________________________________________________ 14 3. FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EBUSES IN URBAN AREAS _ 15 3.1. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES __________________________________ 17 3.1.1. Definition and eBus types _________________________________________________ 17 3.1.2. Charging infrastructure ___________________________________________________ 19 3.1.2.1. Batteries ____________________________________________________________ 19 3.1.2.2. Charging technologies _________________________________________________ 21 3.1.2.3. Charging strategies ____________________________________________________ 23 3.1.2.4. Additional requirements and considerations _______________________________ 26 3.2. MAJOR EBUS MANUFACTURERS ________________________________________ 27 3.2.1. Market share of the main eBus manufacturers ________________________________ 27 3.2.2. Focus on main manufacturers _____________________________________________ 29 3.2.2.1. BYD ________________________________________________________________ 29 3.2.2.2. Irizar _______________________________________________________________ 30 3.2.3. Production capacity _____________________________________________________ 33 3.2.4. Turnkey projects: alliances ________________________________________________ 34 3.2.5. Barriers _______________________________________________________________ 34 3.3. BUS OPERATORS ____________________________________________________ 36 3.3.1. General context of fleet operation __________________________________________ 36 3.3.2. Bus operation models in Spain _____________________________________________ 38 3.3.3. Detail of public tenders ___________________________________________________ 38 3.4. IDENTIFICATION OF TECHNICAL VARIABLES _______________________________ 39 3.4.1. Variables that affect energy consumption of the eBus __________________________ 40 3.4.2. Identification of grid requirements _________________________________________ 41 4. DEVELOPMENT OF THE DECISION-MAKING TOOL________________________ 43 4.1. CURRENT COST STRUCTURE AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION ____________________ 44 4.1.1. Overview on cost structures of different bus technologies ______________________ 45 I | Page Official Master’s Degree in the Electric Power Industry Detailed analysis of the implications of the urban public transport transitioning to a fully electrified model 4.1.2. Focus on the cost structure of the eBus ______________________________________ 46 4.1.2.1. Initial investment costs ________________________________________________ 46 4.1.2.2. Variable costs ________________________________________________________ 47 4.1.2.3. Emerging business models ______________________________________________ 48 4.1.3. Future cost evolution ____________________________________________________ 50 4.2. DEVELOPMENT OF THE EBUS TCO MODEL ________________________________ 53 4.2.1. Definition of input variables for the TCO model _______________________________ 53 4.2.2. Verification of the performance of the TCO model _____________________________ 55 4.2.2.1. Baseline TCO comparison in the diesel case ________________________________ 56 4.2.2.2. Baseline TCO comparison in the CNG case _________________________________ 57 4.2.2.3. Baseline TCO comparison in the eBus case _________________________________ 58 4.2.3. Results of real cases obtained with the model ________________________________ 59 4.2.3.1. The case of Badajoz ___________________________________________________ 59 4.2.3.2. The case of Madrid ____________________________________________________ 60 4.2.3.3. The case of Bilbao _____________________________________________________ 61 4.2.3.4. The case of Vitoria ____________________________________________________ 63 4.3. ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ______________________________________ 64 4.3.1. Sensitivity to individual variables ___________________________________________ 64 4.3.1.1. Sensitivity to the useful life of the eBus ___________________________________ 65 4.3.1.2. Sensitivity to annual mileage ____________________________________________ 65 4.3.1.3. Sensitivity to the cost of the vehicle ______________________________________ 65 4.3.1.4. Sensitivity to the cost of the charging infrastructure _________________________ 65 4.3.1.5. Sensitivity to the price of electricity ______________________________________ 65 4.3.1.6. Sensitivity to the operating annual cost ___________________________________ 65 4.3.2. Sensitivity to competing variables __________________________________________ 66 4.3.2.1. Impact of tariffs ______________________________________________________ 66 4.3.2.2. Impact of the investment cost ___________________________________________ 66 4.3.2.3. Impact of technology efficiency __________________________________________ 67 4.3.2.4. Impact of infrastructure cost ____________________________________________ 67 4.4. ENVIRONMENTAL COST FOR SOCIETY ___________________________________ 67 4.4.1. Current environmental cost for society ______________________________________ 67 4.4.2. Environmental cost for society if charges for emissions are considered ____________ 69 5. RESULTS: INSIGHTS FOR MUNICIPALITIES ______________________________ 71 5.1. PROPOSED FINAL SOLUTION ___________________________________________ 71 5.2. BARRIERS AND GUIDELINES FOR MUNICIPALITIES __________________________ 72 5.2.1. Barriers for eBus project deployment in cities_________________________________ 73 5.2.2. Guidelines for adopting municipalities ______________________________________ 74 5.2.2.1. Options to overcome eBus adoption barriers _______________________________ 75 5.3. ACTION PLAN FOR MUNICIPALITIES _____________________________________ 76 6. CONCLUSIONS ____________________________________________________