Chapter 14: Climate Change A. INTRODUCTION Since the publication of the DEIS, the design of certain Proposed Project elements has been refined, and in some instances, changes have been made in response to comments received as part of the public review process. While the size of the retail village on Site B has been reduced to approximately 315,000 gross square feet (gsf), and the size of the hotel has been reduced to approximately 210,000 gsf, this chapter conservatively retains the assumption of up to 350,000 gsf of retail village and 230,000 gsf of hotel presented in the DEIS. The increase in size of the arena on Site A from 690,000 gsf to 745,000 gsf has been incorporated in this chapter. This chapter evaluates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would be generated by the construction and operation of the Proposed Project and its resilience to climate change effects. Since the Proposed Project would be located outside of the potential future flood zones as projected by New York State for 2100, and since the Proposed Project would not introduce any major drainage infrastructure with the potential to affect local flooding conditions during severe precipitation events, the focus of the climate change analysis is on potential GHG emissions. As discussed in the Federal National Climate Assessment1 and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) policy,2 climate change is projected to have wide‐ ranging effects on the environment, including rising sea levels, increases in temperature, and changes in precipitation levels. Although this is occurring on a global scale, the environmental effects of climate change are also likely to be felt at the local level. The United States and New York State have established sustainability initiatives and goals for greatly reducing GHG emissions and for adapting to climate change. Additionally, the Town of Hempstead has registered as a participating community in New York State’s Climate Smart Communities program. NYSDEC recommends that agencies quantify GHG emissions where appropriate data inputs are reasonably available, with the appropriate level of review to assess the broad-scale effects of GHG emissions to inform decisions. Therefore, GHG emissions associated with the Proposed Project’s operations are quantified, and construction-related emissions are evaluated qualitatively. The guidance states that agencies should consider reasonable measures to lower the level of the potential GHG emissions. Therefore, the analysis reviews potential relevant measures aimed at reducing GHG emissions associated with the Proposed Project, and where practicable, the potential effect of various measures to reduce GHG emissions is evaluated. 1 U.S. Global Change Research Program. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment. Volume I. 2017. 2 NYSDEC. DEC Policy: Assessing Energy Use and Climate Change in Environmental Impact Statements. July 15, 2009. 14-1 July 2019 Belmont Park Redevelopment Civic and Land Use Improvement Project FEIS PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS The building energy use and vehicle use associated with the Proposed Project are estimated to generate between 163 and 172 thousand metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions per year. The Climate Smart Communities Pledge includes five elements by which a project’s consistency is evaluated: (1) Decrease community energy use; (2) Increase community use of renewable energy; (3) Realize benefits of recycling and other climate-smart solid waste management practices; (4) Reduce greenhouse gas emissions through use of climate-smart land use tools; and (5) Enhance community resilience and prepare for the effects of climate change. The Applicant is currently evaluating specific energy efficiency measures and design elements that may be implemented, and is seeking to achieve certification under the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) for Building Design and Construction rating system, version 4. The Applicant is committed at a minimum to achieve the prerequisite energy efficiency requirements under LEED and would likely exceed them. To qualify for LEED, the Proposed Project would be required to exceed the energy requirements of New York State’s Energy Conservation Construction Code (currently the same as ASHRAE 90.1-2013), resulting in energy expenditure lower than a baseline building designed to meet but not exceed the minimum building code requirements by approximately 12 to 20 percent for new construction. Furthermore, additional energy savings would likely be achieved via guidance for tenant build-out, which would control much of the building’s energy use and efficiency, but those are unknown at this time. The Proposed Project’s commitment to building energy efficiency, exceeding the energy code requirements, would ensure consistency with the decreased energy use goal defined in the Climate Smart Communities Pledge as part of the Town’s GHG reduction goal. The Proposed Project would also support the other GHG goals by virtue of its proximity to public transportation, reliance on natural gas, LPG, or electricity (rather than fuel oil), commitment to construction air quality controls, and the fact that as a matter of course, construction in the New York City metropolitan region uses recycled steel and includes cement replacements. All of these factors demonstrate that the proposed development supports the GHG reduction goal. Therefore, based on the commitment to energy efficiency and by virtue of location and nature, the Proposed Project would be consistent with the Town’s emissions reduction goals, as defined in the Climate Smart Communities Pledge. Since the Proposed Project would be located outside of the potential future flood zones as projected by New York State, all components of the Proposed Project would be located well above flood elevations out to 2100 and beyond. A stormwater analysis was performed for the Proposed Project (see Chapter 9, “Water Resources”), and found that infrastructure for the Proposed Project would be able to accommodate peak precipitation under future conditions, and implementation of the Proposed Project would not have a significant adverse impact on on-site or off-site stormwater management facilities, stormwater runoff on surrounding communities, and would not exacerbate local flooding conditions during severe precipitation events. B. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS POLLUTANTS OF CONCERN GHGs are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of infrared radiation emitted 14-2 Chapter 14: Climate Change by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, and clouds. The general warming of the Earth’s atmosphere caused by this phenomenon is known as the “greenhouse effect.” Water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane, and ozone are the primary GHGs in the Earth’s atmosphere. There are also a number of entirely anthropogenic GHGs in the atmosphere, such as halocarbons and other chlorine- and bromine-containing substances, which also damage the stratospheric ozone layer (and contribute to the “ozone hole”). Since these compounds are being replaced and phased out due to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, there is no need to address them in GHG assessments for most projects. Although ozone itself is also a major GHG, it does not need to be assessed as such at the project level since it is a rapidly reacting chemical and efforts are ongoing to reduce ozone concentrations as a criteria pollutant (see Chapter 12, “Air Quality”). Similarly, water vapor is of great importance to global climate change, but is not directly of concern as an emitted pollutant since the negligible quantities emitted from anthropogenic sources are inconsequential. CO2 is the primary pollutant of concern from anthropogenic sources. Although not the GHG with the strongest effect per molecule, CO2 is by far the most abundant and, therefore, the most influential GHG. CO2 is emitted from any combustion process (both natural and anthropogenic); from some industrial processes such as the manufacture of cement, mineral production, metal production, and the use of petroleum-based products; from volcanic eruptions; and from the decay of organic matter. CO2 is removed (“sequestered”) from the lower atmosphere by natural processes such as photosynthesis and uptake by the oceans. Methane and N2O also play an important role since the removal processes for these compounds are limited and because they have a relatively high impact on global climate change as compared with an equal quantity of CO2. Emissions of these compounds, therefore, are included in GHG emissions analyses when the potential for substantial emission of these gases exists. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identifies seven types of GHGs that are relevant for GHG inventory purposes: CO2, N2O, methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The analysis focuses mostly on CO2, N2O, and methane. There are no significant direct or indirect sources of HFCs, PFCs, NF3, or SF6 associated with the Proposed Project. To present a complete inventory of all GHGs, component emissions are added together and presented as CO2e emissions—a unit representing the quantity of each GHG weighted by its effectiveness using CO2 as a reference. This is achieved by multiplying the quantity of each GHG emitted by a factor called global warming potential (GWP).