Integrated National Energy and Climate Change Plan for 2021 - 2030 Integrated National Energy and Climate Change Plan 2021-2030 Content Content 2 List of tables, figures and graphs 4 List of acronyms 7 A. National Plan 10 1. Overview and process for establishing the Plan 10 1.1. Executive Summary 10 1.2. National and Union energy system and policy context of the national plan 43 1.3. Consultations and involvement of national and Union entities and their outcome 51 1.4. Regional cooperation in preparing the plan 60 2. National objectives 61 2.1. Dimension Decarbonisation 61 2.1.1. GHG emissions and removals ........................................................................ 61 2.1.2. Renewable energy ........................................................................................ 62 2.2. Dimension Energy Efficiency 68 2.3. Dimension energy security 70 2.4. Dimension internal energy market 71 2.4.1. Electricity interconnectivity .......................................................................... 71 2.4.2. Energy transmission infrastructure .............................................................. 72 2.4.3. Market integration ........................................................................................ 72 2.4.4. Energy poverty ............................................................................................. 74 2.5. Dimension Research, innovation and competitiveness 76 3. Policies and measures for reaching the proposed objectives 79 3.1. Dimension Decarbonisation 79 3.1.1. GHG emissions and removals ........................................................................ 79 3.1.2. Renewable energy ........................................................................................ 87 3.1.3. Other elements of the dimension .................................................................. 92 3.2. Dimension Energy Efficiency 92 3.3. Dimension energy security 96 3.4. Dimension internal energy market 100 3.4.1. Electricity infrastructure ............................................................................. 100 3.4.2. Energy transmission infrastructure ............................................................ 101 3.4.3. Market integration ...................................................................................... 102 3.4.4. Energy poverty ........................................................................................... 103 3.5. Dimension research, innovation and competitiveness 105 B. Analytical basis 108 Page 2 of 168 Integrated National Energy and Climate Change Plan 2021-2030 4. Current situation and projections with existing policies and measures 108 4.1. Projected evolution of main exogenous factors influencing energy system and GHG emission developments 108 4.2. Dimension Decarbonisation 116 4.2.1. GHG emissions and removals ...................................................................... 116 4.2.2. Renewable energy ...................................................................................... 122 4.3. Dimension Energy Efficiency 128 4.4. Dimension energy security 132 4.5. Dimension internal energy market 136 4.5.1. Electricity interconnectivity ........................................................................ 136 4.5.2. Energy transmission infrastructure ............................................................ 140 4.5.3. Electricity and gas markets, energy prices ................................................. 148 4.6. Dimension research, innovation and competitiveness 152 5. Impact assessment of planned policies and measures 160 5.1. Impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on energy system and GHG emissions and removals including comparison to projections with existing policies and measures (as described in section 4) 160 5.2. Macroeconomic and, to the extent feasible, the health, environmental, employment and education, skills and social impacts including just transition aspects (in terms of costs and benefits as well as cost-effectiveness) of the planned policies and measures described in section 3 at least until the last year of the period covered by the plan, including comparison to projections with existing policies and measures 162 5.3. Overview of investment needs 162 5.4. Impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on other Member States and regional cooperation at least until the last year of the period covered by the plan, including comparison to projections with existing policies and measures 165 Methodology (overview) 167 Page 3 of 168 Integrated National Energy and Climate Change Plan 2021-2030 List of tables, figures and graphs Table 1 - Overview of the main objectives of INECCP 2021-2030 for 2030 ........................... 11 Table 2 - Overview table with key objectives, policies and measures of the plan ................... 13 Table 3 - Reflecting the operational objectives of the INECCP within the policy objectives 2021- 2027 at the level of the European Union .......................................................................... 40 Table 4 - Table of current policies and measures in Romania on energy and climate, related to the five dimensions of the Energy Union .......................................................................... 46 Table 5 – List of respondents to the public consultation of the INECCP draft ......................... 52 Table 6 - Main observations submitted by the respondents ................................................ 53 Table 7 - Estimated trajectory, broken down by technology, of renewable energy in gross final consumption of electricity, 2021-2030, [ktoe] .................................................................. 64 Table 8 - Estimated trajectory, broken down by technology, of renewable energy in gross final consumption of energy in the Heating & Cooling sector, 2021-2030, [ktoe] ......................... 65 Table 9 - Estimated trajectory, broken down by technology, of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy in the transport sector, 2021-2030, [ktoe] ................... 65 Table 10 - Maximum specific annual energy consumption [KWh / m², primary energy], respectively RES share to meet the energy requirements of the building [%] ....................... 69 Table 11 - Arrears on utility bills [%], 2010-2016 ............................................................. 75 Table 12 - Inability to ensure household heating at a suitable level [%], 2010-2016 ............. 75 Table 13 - General targets rendered in the 2014-2020 National Strategy for Research- Development and Innovation ......................................................................................... 76 Table 14 - Action areas and expected results described in the 2014-2020 National Competitiveness Strategy, applicable for the Energy Sector ............................................... 78 Table 15 - Development of Romanian economic growth in the context of the existing policies ................................................................................................................................ 108 Table 16 - Selection of subprograms within Research, Development and Innovation Strategy 2014-2020, applicable in Energy sector ......................................................................... 156 Table 17 - Additional programs for financing energy projects ........................................... 157 Figure 1 - Modernization of the Economy – the Role of Energy Union and measures for fighting climate change ............................................................................................................. 44 Figure 2 - The 2014-2020 national objectives for the Research and Innovation domain ......... 76 Figure 3 - Current status of Romanian electricity transmission grid ................................... 138 Figure 4 - Projects for the development of the national gas transmission infrastructure during the period 2018-2027 ................................................................................................. 144 Figure 5 – Main component of the Energy Transmission System ....................................... 153 Figure 6 - Schematic presentation of the model methodology .......................................... 167 Graph 1 - Historical and expected evolution of the ETS and non-ETS sectors emissions ......... 61 Graph 2 - Indicative trajectory of RES share in final energy consumption, 2021 - 2030, [%] . 62 Graph 3 - Indicative trajectory of the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of electricity, 2021-2030 ............................................................................ 63 Graph 4 - Indicative trajectory of the share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy in the heating and cooling sector, 2021-2030 ................................. 63 Graph 5 - Indicative trajectory of the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy in the transport sector, 2021-2030 ................................................ 64 Graph 6 - Indicative trajectory of installed capacity, by sources, [MW] ................................ 65 Graph 7 - The indicative trajectory of gross final consumption of energy by sector, [ktoe] ..... 66 Graph 8 - The indicative trajectory of biomass demand for electricity and heat production as well as imported quantities, [ktoe] ................................................................................. 67 Graph 9 - Evolution of Romanian population during the