Chongqing Innovation and Human Capital Development Project (RRP PRC 50222) FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Introduction 1. Institutional arrangement. The Chongqing Municipal Government (CMG) will be the executing agency and the Chongqing project management office (CPMO) will manage the project for the CMG. The project has seven implementing agencies, which are the end- borrowers of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan. Of these, two are state-owned enterprises: (i) Chongqing Changshou Economic and Technological Development Area Development Investment Group Co., Ltd. (implementing agency for the Changshou subproject), which is under the Changshou District Government (CDG); and (ii) Dianjiang Chaoyang Industrial Co., Ltd. (implementing agency for the Dianjiang subproject), which is under the Dianjiang County Government (DCG). The other five are public higher education institutions (HEIs) under the Chongqing Education Commission of the CMG: (i) Chongqing Jiaotong University (CJU), (ii) Chongqing Sanxia Vocational College (CSVC), (iii) Chongqing University of Education (CUE), (iv) Chongqing University of Science and Technology (CUST), and (v) Chongqing Vocational Institute of Engineering (CVIE). 2. Project scope and outputs. The project will support (i) people in Chongqing to gain industry-relevant and innovation-oriented skills and capacities; and (ii) institutions to create an enabling and inclusive environment that helps build an innovative, diversified, efficient, and green economy in Chongqing. The seven implementing agencies agreed to work together to achieve the project objectives under the management of the CPMO. The project will deliver three outputs: (i) relevance and quality of higher education and vocational training strengthened, (ii) supporting mechanisms for innovation and entrepreneurship established, and (iii) institutional and project management capacity enhanced. Subprojects implemented by the five HEIs will support output 1, and subprojects implemented by the two state-owned enterprises will support output 2. The CPMO will be responsible for the implementation of output 3. 3. Financial analysis approach. This financial analysis was conducted following guidelines set out by ADB.1 This analysis aims to (i) assess the financial viability of the two subprojects implemented by state-owned enterprises (i.e., the Changshou and Dianjiang subprojects); (ii) assess the financial sustainability of the five subprojects implemented by HEIs (CJU, CSVC, CUE, CUST, and CVIE); and (iii) review the fiscal capacities of the CDG, CMG, and DCG to finance the incremental costs generated by the respective components.2 B. Financial Analysis of Changshou and Dianjiang Subprojects 4. Financial viability. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and financial internal rate of return (FIRR) were computed for the Changshou and Dianjiang subprojects. The FIRRs are calculated based on capital investment and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and revenues obtained from facility rental and parking fees. A project with an FIRR that exceeds its WACC is deemed financially viable. With an FIRR (3.4%) higher than its WACC of 2.0%, the Changshou subproject is financially viable (Table 1). However, the Dianjiang subproject 1 ADB. 2005. Financial Management and Analysis of Projects. Manila; and ADB. 2009. Financial Due Diligence: A Methodology Note. Manila. 2 The financial evaluation of an ADB commercial project consists primarily of a comparison between the project’s financial internal rate of return (FIRR), which represents financial benefits, and its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which represents financial costs. Noncommercial projects are not subject to FIRR and WACC assessment. Instead, reliance is placed on the project’s financial sustainability. 2 generated a negative FIRR, and its cash flows can only cover the operating costs. Sensitivity analysis considered four alternative scenarios: (i) a 10% increase in capital costs, (ii) a 10% increase in operating costs, (iii) a 1-year delay in implementation, and (iv) a 10% decrease in revenues. The results of the sensitivity analysis show that the financial viability of the Changshou subproject is robust under these adverse scenarios. All scenarios yield an FIRR higher than the Changshou subproject’s WACC (2.0 %). Table 1: Results of Financial Internal Rate of Return and Sensitivity Analysis Item Changshou Subproject (%) Dianjiang Subproject (%) Weighted average cost of capital 2.0 2.1 1. Base case 3.4 Negative 2. Capital costs increased by 10% 2.7 Negative 3. Operating costs increased by 10% 3.2 Negative 4. Implementation delayed by 1 year 3.2 Negative 5. Revenues decreased by 10% 2.4 Negative Source: Asian Development Bank estimates. 5. Financial sustainability of Dianjiang subproject. The projected annual financial statements of the subproject’s operation from 2025 to 2045 are prepared to determine the annual subsidies required from the DCG and to assess the financial sustainability of the Dianjiang subproject (Table 2). The projected annual performance shows that the annual cash flow from operating activities is positive from 2025 onwards, but annual subsidies will be required to fully cover the subproject’s debt service requirements from when the loan repayments are to commence in 2026 to the final year of ADB loan repayment in 2044. The required subsidy will be highest in 2026 at about CNY13.44 million (equivalent to 0.17% of the DCG’s recurrent budget in 2018). This will require the DCG’s recurrent budget to grow by at least 0.02% per year during 2019–2026. This is lower than the expected 6% average growth in the economy of Dianjiang County and the recurrent budget of the DGC during the period. Improvements in operations are expected over time and will result in lower subsidy requirements in the future. The required subsidy is projected to decline from 2027 onwards and will be lowest in 2044 (at least CNY8.03 million). This will require the DCG’s recurrent budget to grow during 2026–2044 by an average of at least 0.03% per year—much lower than the expected growth in the DCG’s recurrent budget. These projections strongly indicate that the Dianjiang subproject is financially sustainable. Table 2: Summary of Operation Performance of Dianjiang Subproject Item 2025 2026 2027 2030 2035 2044 2045 A. Income Statement Operating rate (%) 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1. Business revenue (CNY million) 5.32 6.08 6.84 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.60 2. Operating cost (CNY million) 2.69 3.11 3.50 3.99 4.26 4.87 4.95 3. Profit before depreciation, financial charges, 2.63 2.96 3.33 3.61 3.33 2.72 2.65 and income taxes (CNY million) Depreciation and amortization (CNY million) 15.41 15.41 15.41 15.41 15.41 15.41 15.41 Financial charges (CNY million) 0.00 5.81 5.50 4.55 2.98 0.16 0.00 Income taxes (CNY million) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. Net profit (CNY million) (12.78) (18.26) (17.57) (16.36) (15.06) (12.84) (12.76) B. Cash Flow Statement Cash from operations activities (CNY million) 2.63 2.96 3.33 3.61 3.33 2.72 2.65 Cash from investment activities (CNY million) (12.15) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cash from financing activities (CNY million) 12.15 (16.41) (16.09) (15.15) (13.58) (10.76) 0.00 Beginning cash (CNY million) 0.00 2.63 (10.82) (47.46) (102.58) (185.83) (193.86) Change in cash (CNY million) 2.63 (13.44) (12.76) (11.55) (10.25) (8.03) 2.65 Ending cash (CNY million) 2.63 (10.82) (23.58) (59.01) (112.83) (193.86) (191.21) ( ) = negative. Sources: Dianjiang County Government and Asian Development Bank estimates. 3 6. Fiscal impact and sustainability of Changshou and Dianjiang subprojects. Since the Changshou subproject is financially viable, the CDG only needs to provide counterpart funds for the subproject during the construction period. For the Dianjiang subproject, if necessary, the DCG will provide counterpart funds during the construction period, as well as subsidies for O&Ms cost and debt service requirements. To assess the capacities of the CDG and DCG to fulfill the incremental financing requirements of their respective subprojects, revenues and expenditures of the CDG and DCG during 2016–2018 were reviewed, and projections of their future revenues and expenditures were made. Incremental costs include (i) counterpart fund requirements, (ii) annual O&M cost requirements, and (iii) debt servicing requirements. In this analysis, a fiscal cost burden exceeding 2% of total revenue is considered problematic, as it may crowd out other programs or delay the provision of counterpart funds. Table 3 shows that the fiscal cost burden of the Changshou subproject as a proportion of fiscal revenue is highest at 0.84% in 2023, while that of the Dianjiang subproject is highest at 0.38% in 2021. This implies that the financial requirements of the Changshou and Dianjiang subprojects are affordable to their respective local governments and will have negligible impacts on the budgets of the respective governments. C. Financial Sustainability and Fiscal Impact of Public Higher Education Institutions Subprojects 7. CJU, CSVC, CUE, CUST, and CVIE are responsible for implementing their respective subprojects, providing counterpart funds, and covering O&M costs and debt service repayments. A financial sustainability assessment was conducted to estimate the future revenue and expenditure flows of the five project HEIs. To assess the HEIs’ financial capacity to finance the incremental cost requirements of their respective subprojects, their revenue and expenditure flows during 2016–2018, and their historical revenue-generating capacity were reviewed. The revenues of these public HEIs are from (i) a general annual fiscal budget allocation from the CMG, which amounts to about CNY12,000 per student; (ii) business revenue, which is mainly from tuition and accommodation fees; and (iii) other revenue sources.