2009 NHL Review Alan Ryder HockeyAnalytics.com Copyright Alan Ryder 2009 2009 NHL Review Page 2 Table of Contents Introduction 3 Player Contribution ............................................................................................................. 3 PC Basics ........................................................................................................................... 3 Threshold Performance ...................................................................................................... 4 Situational PC ..................................................................................................................... 5 The Currency of PC ............................................................................................................ 6 Team Performances 8 Lucky and Unlucky Teams .................................................................................................. 8 Offense ............................................................................................................................... 9 Shots and Shot Quality ..................................................................................................... 11 Defense ............................................................................................................................ 12 Goaltending ...................................................................................................................... 15 The Shootout .................................................................................................................... 18 Top Individual Performances 21 Forwards ........................................................................................................................... 21 Defensive Forwards .......................................................................................................... 25 Defensemen ..................................................................................................................... 28 Defensive Defensemen .................................................................................................... 32 Goaltenders ...................................................................................................................... 35 Clean Play ........................................................................................................................ 37 Rookies ............................................................................................................................. 40 Shootout ........................................................................................................................... 42 All Star Contributions 44 NHL .................................................................................................................................. 44 East .................................................................................................................................. 45 West ................................................................................................................................. 45 Rookie .............................................................................................................................. 46 Green ................................................................................................................................ 47 Grey .................................................................................................................................. 47 Offense ............................................................................................................................. 48 Defense ............................................................................................................................ 50 Even Handed .................................................................................................................... 51 Power Play ....................................................................................................................... 52 Short Handed ................................................................................................................... 53 Most Valuable Performances ............................................................................................ 54 All Cap Roster .................................................................................................................. 55 Hall of Fame Watch 59 Copyright Alan Ryder, 2009 Hockey Analytics www.HockeyAnalytics.com 2009 NHL Review Page 3 Introduction This review is focused on the most outstanding individual performances in the NHL during the 2008-09 (“2009”) season. But I will also comment on certain aspects of team performance since individual performances are difficult to assess without understanding the team context. My tool for measuring individual player impact is Player Contribution (PC). When I developed PC I put it out in the public domain 1 so that (a) people would know that it was there and (b) it could be critiqued and therefore enhanced over time. People certainly know it is there. My original PC paper is probably the most downloaded hockey analytics “how to” piece, and my series of annual NHL reviews is probably the most downloaded piece of hockey analysis, on the internet. For those of you anxiously awaiting my analysis, I am sorry that I am so late with this. As the NHL does not publish a decent statistical database or set of reports, the process of cobbling together the data (and PC uses everything that I can get my hands on that seems relevant) is enormous and … I have a day job. The constructive evolution of PC through public debate has not happened. What has happened, instead, is use and abuse of my work. I don’t mind the use of my analysis. That’s why I publish it in a public forum. I do mind the abuse by hackers, amateurs and thieves. PC has evolved considerably since I first developed it. Some of those enhancements have been documented by me. But my most recent improvements have not been publicly described. If you want the most refined view of individual player performance you will have to read on 2. PC Basics The PC method is a system of credits and debits. The credits are for the observed elements of individual performance that aggregate to team success. That part is easy to understand. The debits are to subtract the “marginal” aspects of performance – more on that below. ‘PCO’ is PC from offense, based on ‘goals created’ in excess of a threshold level of performance. To determine PCO a player is credited for creating goals but debited for ice time (greater ice time, especially for forwards and on the power play, means greater offensive expectations). 1 PC is described in http://www.HockeyAnalytics.com/Research_files/Player_Contribution.pdf 2 There are other individual performance measurement systems out there. The better ones are actually built from the same principles as PC. The differences are largely in the details. Copyright Alan Ryder, 2009 Hockey Analytics www.HockeyAnalytics.com 2009 NHL Review Page 4 ‘PCD’ is PC from defense, based on ‘goals prevented’ in excess of a threshold level of performance. To determine PCD players get credited for ice time (greater ice time, especially for defensemen and on the penalty kill, means more defensive responsibility and exposure to goals against) but debited for goals allowed while on ice. ‘PCG’ is PC from goaltending, again based on ‘goals prevented’ in excess of a threshold level of performance. Goaltender contribution is essentially measured by save percentage (credit) in excess of a threshold (debit), factoring in shots faced. The assessment of goaltending is adjusted for various team defense factors. These adjustments find their way back into the assessment of defense. PC is also determined for penalty taking and drawing. In this case, however, the benchmark is essentially the average propensity to take/draw penalties (rather than the marginal propensity). In this sense it is best interpreted as an adjustment to the other PC scores. Threshold Performance In the PC calculations threshold performance is determined mathematically, by inference. It is determined by observing that (a) the marginal impact of more/fewer goals on wins/points is virtually linear 3 over the normal performance range of teams and (b) the “slope” of that linear relationship is the average number of goals scored per game. Marginal or threshold performance is determined by figuring out what level of performance predicts zero contribution to winning when using this linear relationship. The notion of threshold performance is critical to the analysis of individuals. If an AHL goaltender gets promoted to the NHL and posts an .890 save percentage, we should think of an NHL regular with an .893 save percentage as not contributing a performance of very much value, there being a large number of others (minor leaguers) lined up to play nearly as well. Although not really true, you can think of a ‘marginal’ player as a borderline NHLer (my AHL goaltender). It is difficult to be precise about where the borderline is, but the PC method draws a line in the sand somewhere near that line. Why subtract out borderline performance? Because performance at that level is worth ‘nothing’. Borderline players sit on the end of the bench and / or spend a great deal of time in transit to / from the minors. Marginal performance is so far from average as to be zero valued. 3 This is critical to the success of any measurement of individual