Quarterly Market Observatory Logistics & Warehousing Market in India Outlook Update – Q3 2020 September 2020 The Eighty – 20 of Industry: What Matters? Leading Edge COVID-19 brings opportunities for investment in Warehousing Segment in India Warehousing Segment Tier II, III cities to emerge as preferred destinations for the warehousing industry as smaller cities gaining traction At a time when the Indian economy has been facing a slowdown, the warehousing segment has emerged as a promising investment opportunity Close to 20 million Due to nation wide Series of policy changes for investors. Restricted movement due to the nationwide lockdown has sq. ft of warehousing lockdown, Ecommerce has including tax reductions, space are under created a need for faster underscored the importance of in-city warehousing, with tier II and III SEZ amendments, and various stages of delivery, even in markets establishing electronic locations emerging as preferred investment destinations. Though the development with beyond the major cities. and medical devices supply of new warehousing space in 2020 could be merely 12 million sq ft over 10 million sq. ft. clusters will further lead as against the previous estimate of 45 million sq ft due to COVID-19 crisis, space waiting to be To strengthen this trend, to boosting demand for in the long-term, the demand for warehousing space will grow significantly transacted across e-commerce and 3 PL large warehousing and there will be capacity addition in almost 30-35 new tier II and III cities. tier II cities players capitalize on spaces in India demand in smaller cities. These markets are still at a nascent stage and are contributing around 13 percent to overall warehousing demand however recorded a tremendous growth rate of 20 percent in FY-2020. The fastest-growing E-commerce market has undoubtedly increased the demand for warehousing in various Estimated E- 2022 160 cities. Moreover, the e-commerce market, which has witnessed strong commerce growth in the last few years, is estimated to be at 70 billion dollars in 2019 growth market in 2019 70 and is forecasted to reach over 160 billion dollars by 2022 with strong India (Billion USD) investment opportunity in tier II & III cities. 0 50 100 150 200 Billion USD Source: eninrac consulting & Channel checks Numbers to Focus Key Features Deployment Upon – Q2 2020 Expected Trends - Projects Indian Aviation industry posted USD 3 01 Welspun One Logistics Parks looks Billion loss in Q2 2020 for land parcels in big cities to set up warehouses India’s aviation industry is estimated to post Coronavirus Is a Wake-Up Call losses of $3-3.6 billion in Q2 2020 due to for local Supply Chain Welspun One Logistics Parks is looking for land parcels across major cities to expand COVID-19-related disruptions. With travel Management in India sentiments staying muted and fares capped, business as it sees demand for airlines are looking at huge losses in the warehousing and industrial space rising in coming quarters of 2020. The focus of the India should engage with the world post-COVID era. Company is looking to national air carrier in this period has been the by inviting investment, rather than acquire land in other major cities such as evacuation of the Indians from foreign entering into FTAs. For this to work, Delhi, Bengaluru, Pune and Kolkata, and countries through “Vande Bharat Mission” the state would need to develop even tier-II cities. these Zones with private partnerships to the extent feasible. 02 FM Logistic India Aims To Traffic handled at Major Ports Add 40 Lakh Sq Ft Of in Q2 2020 – Pan India Status Share of Port-wise cargo handled (%) during Q2 2020 Warehousing Space – Pan India Status 1.9% 6.3% Kolkata FM Logistic India plans to add 40 lakh sq In Q2 2020, the total traffic Haldia feet of warehousing space under its handled at major ports are 14.1 18.1% Paradip operations over the next three years and MT witnessed decline of 19.6% 17.6% Vishakhapatnam aims to log 35 per cent growth year-on- as compared with Q2 2019 due Ennore year during this period. Pune-based FM Chennai to the supply chain disruption 8.5% Logistic India, which is part of the contract VOC Port amidst COVID-19 pandemic logistics provider FM Logistc, had last year Cochin crisis. Kandla Port and Paradip 8.1% announced setting up of a 31-acre multi- New Mangalore imported largest cargo during Q2 10.9% client logistics facility at an investment of 3.8% Mormugao 2020 with share of 17.8% and USD 30 million, which is expected to be 3.6% Mumbai 18.1% respectively. 6.6% completed by this year end. 4.0%5.3% 5.1% JNPT Kandla Source: eninrac consulting, Channel Checks Short Term and Medium term impact of COVID-19 on Logistics & Warehousing Market in India Quarterly Update Short Term Impact Medium Term Impact – Q3 CY 2020 Demand levels to reduce by 50% A U-shaped demand curve as demand ▪ In the short run, while few sectors like auto, is recovered from essential services heavy machinery, chemicals might renegotiate existing rentals, sectors such as Delay in under construction FMCG, ecommerce, pharmaceuticals, cold projects Rental value may decline by 5-10% storage will see increased growth and over time demand for additional warehouse spaces, as well as stringent health norms are facilities. Stress expected in 3PL segments Occupiers will re-align their overall real estate Land values are expected to witness strategy based on post COVID-19 scenarios, correction in overvalued pockets such as migrant labour, consumer demand Rent deferrals/structured waivers and government support. over reduction Key Signpost –Shift In Supply Key Investments – Key Trends – Chain scenario post COVID-19 Q3 2020 Logistics & Warehousing Market in India Q3 2020 pandemic • Occupiers with high dependency on goods from ▪ Reliance buys Future Group for INR 24,713 cr to bolster its ▪ Post pandemic, there is likely to be technology China have been heavily impacted from the fast growing retail business. Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd infusion in supply chain and warehousing slowdown in manufacturing and shipping. It is (RRVL), subsidiary of Reliance Industries, will acquire the management services in multiple categories. In pre likely that these business would now look at retail and wholesale business and the logistics and corona phase, there was less infusion of technology diversifying their supply chain when COVID-19 has been resolved, to ensure they are not warehousing business from the Future Group as going in agri based, cold storage facilities. Adoption of entirely reliant on any one supplier hereon. concerns on a slump sale basis. automated guided vehicles and robotics in Moreover, Occupiers will re-align their overall operations by global occupiers is expected. real estate strategy based on post COVID-19 ▪ SAIF Partners-backed real estate investment platform scenarios, such as migrant labour, consumer Strata has raised INR 140 Cr from investors to jointly buy ▪ Online grocers have seen the demand for groceries demand and government support. Also, three pre leased warehouses, which collectively account and essentials upsurge by 3-5X compared to normal. organizations would also explore de-risking for 700K Mn sq ft warehousing space. The proptech Moreover, the transition of retail to online and larger supply-chains and hence will diversify into MITI- startup highlighted that the asset is expected to offer inventories by e-commerce players, will speed up the V regions, leading to higher demand in India. investors an average rental yield anywhere between 9.5% warehousing demand further. and 10% Logistics & Warehousing Market in Contents & Coverage – India Outlook Update – Q3 2020 OBSERVATORY Q3 2020 QUARTERLY MARKET QUARTERLY 01 This Quarter 02 Key Features 03 Leading Edge The section shall showcase the major Key features shall cover the major The current affairs leading business impacts highlights for logistics and warehouse strengths and development map on logistics and warehouse segment with segment in India including investments, that the industry has shown over insightful data analytics & our exclusive project developments, policy & the quarter “Knowledge Grid” feeds covered in the regulatory interface etc. section. Our analyst's viewpoints with sharp edged objectives shall be central to the section 05 The Eighty - 20 of Industry – 06 Key Signposts 04 Numbers to Learn What Matters? The status of transportation segment (rail, In this section the major factors which are The business factors which shall govern the road, air and ports) in India, number of acting as the growth catalysts / barriers in course of coming quarters of business and the warehousing spaces available in India the logistics and warehousing segment industry response to the changes shall be the Moreover, the numbers for deals secured by are highlighted inclusive of policies, focus area of this segment logistics and warehouse companies in India regulations etc. 08 Technology & 09 Industry Activities & 07 Deployment Trends Price Trends Corporate Strategies The pace of deployment of projects at This section shall cover all the latest All the industry order track & merger’s and warehousing space levels along with logistics technology implementation and trends, acquisition activities shall be tracked. Fresh segment growth covering issues like price benchmarks of logistics and investments in logistics and warehousing investments, tenders and capacity additions warehousing segment in India sector as per players profiles shall also be shall form part of this section tracked