Argyll and Bute Skills Assessment January 2016 SDS-1147-Jan16 Acknowledgement The Regional Skills Assessment Steering Group would like to thank Ekosgen for their highly professional support in the analysis and collation of the data that forms the basis of this Skills Assessment Update. Local Authority Skills Assessment 2015: Argyll and Bute Introduction What is this report? This is a specific skills summary report for the Argyll and Bute local authority area, one of a series of 32 local authority reports across Scotland. These follow the preparation of 2015 summary Regional Skills Assessments (RSA) which have been developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS), in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. The preparation of local authority-specific reports are designed to help support local authorities and partners with skills investment planning by providing local authority level data where this exists. The reports also support SDS in planning its provision for individuals and businesses. This series of local authority reports sits alongside the 2015 RSA update reports which highlight some of the key messages for the regions. The local authority and regional updates are summary reports, underpinned by the full data matrix, available at sds.co.uk/what-we-do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/. The data matrix has been redesigned to be more user-friendly, and accompanying guidance on how to use it can be found alongside the full data matrix. What has changed since 2014? The economic situation in Scotland has continued to improve in the last year, and the recovery evident at the time of the last RSA is more firmly established, with rising GVA and falling unemployment. Against many indicators, Scotland has returned to pre- recession levels. There continues to be a rise in the participation of women and older workers, and youth unemployment previously apparent has started to fall. Still, under- employment remains an issue and productivity growth in Scotland (and the UK) remains weak and largely consumer-driven. In policy terms, a new Economic Strategy for Scotland is in place. This puts the 4 ‘I’s – Internationalisation, Investment, Innovation and Inclusive Growth – as central to the strategy. Increasing exports continues to be a key policy objective, and the prominence of Inclusive Growth reflects the desire for a re-balancing form of economic growth. Innovation, including workplace innovation, continues to be highly important. Investment continues to be necessary for firms to be successful. Existing strategies and policies also remain important, including the 2010 Skills Strategy and the 2014 Developing the Young Workforce - Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy. The 2015 RSA update seeks to reflect some of these policy developments. For the first time the data matrix includes deprivation indicators, and there is greater attention paid to inequality issues such as age, disability and gender indicators. There is also more detail on school-level provision, migration, travel to work/study, claimant counts and employment projections. 2 Local Authority Skills Assessment 2015: Argyll and Bute Selected headline indicator changes Argyll and Bute Previous year Most recent year % change Economic performance Gross Value Added (GVA) (£m) £1,461 (2012) £1,515 (2013) +3.7% GVA per worker £38,100 (2012) £38,100 (2013) No change Number of businesses 4,665 (2013) 4,685 (2014) +0.4% Profile of the workforce Total Employment 37,500 (2013) 38,100 (2014) +1.6% Professional Occupations 8,000 (2013) 6,100 (2014) +31.1% People and skills supply Total population 88,100 (2013) 87,700 (2014) -0.5% ILO unemployed 1,900 (2013/14) 2,000 (2014/15) +5.0% 16-24 unemployed 233 (2014) 219 (2015) -6.4% Deprivation Workless households 5,362 (2012) 4,688 (2013) -14.4% % of children with free school meals n/a 33% (2015) n/a Education and training MA starts 335 (2013/14) 300 (2014/15) +11.7% College provision (headcount)* 19,686 (2012/13) 20,225 (2013/14) +2.7% Higher Education provision (headcount)* 8,100 (2012/13) 5,878 (2013/14) -27.4%† Skills mismatches % of employers recruited in past 2-3 years 68%* (2014) (next updated 2016) n/a % of employers reporting not all staff fully proficient 21%* (2014) (next updated 2016) n/a *Please note, this data is only available at the regional level, covering Argyll and Bute, Eilean Siar, Highland, Moray, Orkney and Shetland Islands authorities. †Please note that this decrease is a result of the reallocation of UHI’s Perth Campus to the Tayside region. 1 Economic performance Argyll and Bute continues to generate a small proportion of Scotland’s output – 1.3% of the total, in line with the previous year, a reflection of its relatively small population and business base. Output remains dominated by the production sector, which accounts for almost £1 in every £3 of output from the area, at 31%. The GVA growth rate for the latest year, 2013, was 3.7%, above the Scotland increase of 2.9%, and a strong recovery from the -3.6% fall in 2012. Productivity levels in Argyll and Bute are below the Scottish and UK averages and have remained at the same level from the previous year (2012). GVA per worker was £38,100 in 2013, 19% below the Scottish average of £47,000 and 25% below the UK average of £51,000. However, GVA per worker increased by 24% over the period from 2006 and 2013, above the Scotland (18%) and UK (17%) rates of growth. Most recent (2014) data shows that full time jobs in Argyll and Bute, at £511 per week, pay only slightly below the Scottish (£519) and UK (£518) averages, although this fell 3% from 2013, at a time of 2% growth across Scotland. Those living in Argyll and Bute earn less at £475 per week. 3 Local Authority Skills Assessment 2015: Argyll and Bute There were 4,685 VAT/PAYE registered Business Base by Sector, 2014 businesses in 2014, up 0.4% from 2013 to Source: UK Business Counts 2014, but below the 2.8% Scotland increase. Since 2010, the growth rate has been slow, Agriculture, forestry & fishing just 0.4%, significantly below the 5% growth Retail in Scotland and 6% growth in the UK. Accommodation & food services The Argyll and Bute business base is Professional, scientific & technical dominated by the agriculture, forestry and Construction fishing sector, which accounts for 19% of Arts, entertainment, recreation & businesses, more than double the Scotland other services proportion (9%). In contrast, finance and 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% insurance and professional, scientific and technical businesses are particularly under- Argyll & Bute Scotland represented in Argyll and Bute. 2 Profile of the workforce Index of Total Employment, 2009-14 Argyll and Bute lost employment following Source: Business Register and Employment Survey the recession, although the effect was 106 delayed until 2011, when the area lost jobs 104 over the period to 2013. Between 2013 and 102 2014 there was a modest recovery, to 38,000 100 jobs in total, although this increase was at a 98 slower rate than the Scottish and GB 96 averages. The rate of growth between 2013 94 and 2014 was 1.6%, compared to 3.2% in 92 Scotland and 2.7% in Great Britain. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Employment in the area remains 2% lower Argyll & Bute Scotland GB than in 2009, at a time of 0.7% growth across Scotland. There remains a reliant on Sector Specialisation, 2014 the public sector for Source: Business Register and Employment Survey employment in Argyll and Public administration & defence Bute. Health (at 15%, 5,800) Accommodation & food services is top employing sector. Property Arts, entertainment, recreation This is slightly below the Transport & storage (inc postal) Scotland proportion (16%) Business administration & support Education but greater than the Great Construction Britain (13%) proportion. Health Retail Public admin and defence Wholesale employment is almost twice Motor trades Agriculture, forestry & fishing as concentrated as it is in Production Scotland. Professional, scientific & technical Information & communication Financial & insurance Argyll and Bute also has a 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% high employment concentration in accommodation and food services (1.8x). Property and the arts are also concentrated in the area. Business administration and support, education and construction are broadly in line with the national average. 4 Local Authority Skills Assessment 2015: Argyll and Bute Argyll and Bute is under-represented in high value employment sectors such as professional, scientific and technical, information and communication and financial and insurance. Sectoral specialisation exists for those sectors with a value which is above 100%. Argyll and Bute has a lower proportion employed in Occupational Profile, 2014 professional occupations (15%, Source: Annual Population Survey 6,100), than the Scotland and UK Elementary occupations average of 20%, although a Process, plant and machine operatives higher proportion of managers Sales and Customer Service and directors. Fewer are Caring, leisure and other services employed in sales and customer Skilled Trades Occupations service, caring, leisure and other Administrative and Secretarial service occupations. In contrast, Associate Prof & Tech Argyll and Bute has a much Professional Occupations larger proportion of the Managers, Directors & Senior Officials workforce employed in skilled 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% trades (15% versus 11%) and as operatives (7% versus 6%). Argyll & Bute Scotland 3 People and skills supply The population of Argyll and Bute has been on a downward trend Index of Total Population, 2004-14 over the last decade. After a small Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates increase in 2013, the population fell by 0.5% in 2014 to 87,700, 110 below the 0.4% growth across 105 Scotland during that period.