Trade-offs and synergies betweenin situ and ex situ conservation of plant taxa: A process to support practical decision-making Report to the National Environmental Science Program, Department of Environment, Canberra. Vandana Subroy1, Megan Barnes1,2, Leonie Monks2, Andrew Crawford2, David Coates2, Ram Pandit1, David Pannell1, Belinda Davis3, Marie Edgley4, Carl Gosper2, Bree Phillips4, Colin Yates2, Brett Beecham4 and David Jolliffe4 31 May 2021 Trade-offs and synergies between in situ and ex situ conservation of plant taxa: A process to support practical decision-making Report to the National Environmental Science Program, Department of Environment, Canberra. 31 May 2021 Vandana Subroy1, Megan Barnes1,2, Leonie Monks2, Andrew Crawford2, David Coates2, Ram Pandit1, David Pannell1, Belinda Davis3, Marie Edgley4, Carl Gosper2, Bree Phillips4, Colin Yates2, Brett Beecham4 and David Jolliffe4 1 Centre for Environmental Economics & Policy, UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, M087, University of Western Australia, Perth WA 6009, Australia. 2 Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, 17 Dick Perry Avenue, Kensington, WA 6151, Australia. 3 Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Fraser Ave, Perth WA 6005 4 Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, Parks and Wildlife Service - Wheatbelt Region, 9 Wald Street, Narrogin, WA 6312 Cite this publication as: Subroy. V., Barnes, M., Monks, L., Crawford, A., Coates, D., Pandit, R., Pannell, D., Davis, B., Edgley, M., Gosper, C., Phillips, B., Yates, C., Beecham, B., Jolliffe, D., 2021. Trade-offs and synergies between in situ and ex situ conservation of plant taxa: A process to support practical decision-making. NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub Project 6.1 (Theme 3) report, Brisbane. For further information, contact Ram Pandit: [email protected] Cover image: Grevillea sp. Gillingarra (R.J. Cranfield 4087). Image: Andrew Crawford 2 Contents Executive summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1. Background ..................................................................................................................................................................................................7 2. Recovery actions for threatened flora .................................................................................................................................................. 9 2.1. In situ recovery actions .................................................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2. Ex situ recovery actions ................................................................................................................................................................. 9 2.3. Translocation .................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.4. Establishing seed orchards .......................................................................................................................................................... 10 3. Prioritisation of taxa to implement recovery actions ..................................................................................................................... 10 3.1. Goal ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 3.2. Decision support tools for prioritising recovery actions for taxa ...................................................................................... 10 3.3 Cost-effectiveness analysis ..........................................................................................................................................................11 3.4. Steps in decision support process to prioritise threatened taxa for recovery ................................................................11 4. Screening ....................................................................................................................................................................................................12 4.1. Justification for decision nodes and additional details .........................................................................................................14 4.1.1. Why was a threshold population size set at 250 reproductively mature individuals? ......................................14 4.1.2. Node 1: Why three or more populations? ....................................................................................................................15 4.1.3. Node 1.1: Is there a significant declining trend towards <250 mature individuals? .........................................15 4.1.4. Node 2: Will the taxa respond positively to the introduction of disturbance as a management technique? 16 4.1.5. Node 3: Are there one or more populations with >250 individuals? ................................................................... 16 4.1.6. Node Longevity: Is the taxon long lived or short lived? .......................................................................................... 16 4.1.7. Node 4: Is the total size of any single population, including seedlings and juveniles >250? .........................17 4.1.8. Node 5: Is a persistent, viable, genetically diverse seed-bank present at the site/population? .....................17 4.1.9. Node 6: Is it feasible to manage the threats in situ? .................................................................................................17 4.2. Brief summary of changes to nodes and rationale/justification .......................................................................................24 4.3. Seed availability assessment .......................................................................................................................................................25 5. Costing recovery actions .......................................................................................................................................................................26 5.1. Conceptual framework of cost model ....................................................................................................................................26 5.2. Determinants of cost ....................................................................................................................................................................28 5.2.1. Fixed and variable cost parameters ...............................................................................................................................28 5.2.2. Calculating present values of costs ..............................................................................................................................30 5.2.3. Present value calculation of costs from best estimates and simulations for variable parameters ................31 5.3. Stages in translocation and calculation of costs ....................................................................................................................31 5.3.1. Seed /cutting collection ....................................................................................................................................................31 5.3.1.1. Example calculations for seed /cutting collection .....................................................................................33 5.3.2. Establishing a germination protocol .............................................................................................................................33 5.3.3. Plant propagation and planning .....................................................................................................................................34 5.3.3.1. Site selection ........................................................................................................................................................34 5.3.3.2. Writing translocation proposal .........................................................................................................................36 5.3.3.3. Managing seed germination / propagation of cuttings ............................................................................36 5.3.3.4. Organising planting ............................................................................................................................................36 5.3.4. Planting ................................................................................................................................................................................. 37 5.3.4.1. First planting ......................................................................................................................................................... 37 5.3.4.2. Subsequent planting(s)....................................................................................................................................... 37 5.3.5. Monitoring ........................................................................................................................................................................... 37 6. Structured expert elicitation to determine the ecological benefits of recovery actions .....................................................