Savills World Research UK Residential Spotlight Aberdeen Area Residential Market Winter 2015 Invery House (Offers Over £2.5 million) in Banchory, Aberdeenshire. Despite recent challenges, the million pound market in the Aberdeen area is relatively active SUMMARY The Aberdeen residential market is adjusting, following seven years of phenomenal growth ■ The residential market across the FIGURE 1 Aberdeen area is being affected by Residential sale prices relative to oil price uncertainty within the oil-dependent ■ ■ ■ local economy. Aberdeen average sale price Scotland average sale price Oil price 500 ■ Since the beginning of 2015, there has been a fall in average values and 400 volume of sales, particularly in the prime market, which is being further 300 constrained by LBTT. ■ The first-time buyer and young 200 professional markets are bucking the trend, and the million pound market Oil price (Sep 2003 = 100) 100 remains relatively active. Indexed average residential sale price/ Indexed average residential 0 ■ We anticipate a further adjustment in values throughout 2016 to take Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 account of local economic challenges Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 and reducing consumer confidence. Source: Savills Research / US Energy Information Administration savills.co.uk/research 01 Spotlight | Aberdeen Area Residential Market Market overview FIGURE 2 The residential market across the Five year residential annual change forecasts Aberdeen area is being affected by uncertainty within the oil-dependent local economy. Recent challenges Area 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-year have followed a phenomenal period of growth over the last seven years (see Figure 1). UK mainstream 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 17.0% values During the year ending September 2015, the overall average sale Scotland price in Aberdeenshire was the mainstream 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 14.2% second highest in Scotland, behind values Edinburgh. The average price in Aberdeen Aberdeen City was the fourth highest, mainstream -3.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 5.5% behind East Renfrewshire, over the values same period. Aberdeen monthly Looking at the ten year average for the -4.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 5.4% rental values overall residential market, values are 24% higher in Aberdeen City and 19% Source: Savills Research higher in Aberdeenshire, compared to 11% for Scotland as a whole. FIGURE 3 Furthermore, prime values in the Prime second hand sales above £400,000 Aberdeen area are 34% higher than they were in 2007, the peak of the Oct 2013 Oct 2014 May May Scottish market. This compares to a to to to Sept to Sept drop of 22% for Scotland as a whole. Sept 2014 Sept 2015 2014 2015 Scotland 3,236 3,561 1,657 1,283 Despite the recent turmoil, monthly residential rental prices in Aberdeen Edinburgh City 1,083 1,266 578 473 remain the highest in Scotland. Aberdeen area 678 669 362 202 Prices Greater Glasgow 593 655 297 231 There was a fall of 2% in Aberdeen Lothians 217 224 106 96 City and 4% in Aberdeenshire in Tayside 157 163 68 64 mainstream prices during the third quarter of 2015, compared to the Fife 121 152 52 51 same period last year. Prime values Stirling area 114 119 66 54 in the Aberdeen area have dropped by 9% over the same period, with Scottish Borders 79 86 36 37 properties in rural locations most Highlands & Islands 69 78 33 28 affected compared to city locations. Ayrshire 69 69 35 19 Rental values in Aberdeen City dropped by 7% over the same period. Argyll & Bute 29 46 12 14 Dumfries & Galloway 27 34 12 14 Transactions The biggest impact has been felt in Source: Savills Research the volume of sales. During the year ending September 2015, the number available between £200,000 and fell slightly to 669 during the year of residential sales in Aberdeen City £300,000. This includes first time ending September 2015, compared and Aberdeenshire fell by 5% and buyers, professionals and young to 678 during the previous 12-month 11% respectively, compared to the families who are continuing to benefit period. This suggests the market was same period last year. from the comparatively lower rates of further constrained by uncertainty taxation and mortgages. within the oil sector. Despite these drops, there are some sections of the market that have Prime Prime activity has been further bucked the trend. These include The surge in prime activity across compounded by higher levels of properties between £300,000 to Scotland ahead of the introduction of taxation as a result of LBTT, with £400,000, which have witnessed LBTT (Land and Buildings Transaction the number of sales dropping by a slight annual increase in sales Tax) in April 2015 pushed the annual 44% to just 202 between May and of 5%. Our analysis of new build number of sales up by 10%. However, September this year, compared to developments shows an increase in this was not the case in the Aberdeen 362 over the same period last year. the number of properties currently area, where the number of prime sales Unlike the rest of Scotland, the top 02 Winter 2015 FIGURE 4 the city hotspots and this will help Five year residential annual change forecasts Savills residential development land index protect values in these established residential neighbourhoods. ■ Scotland Greenfield ■ Scotland Urban ■ Aberdeen Greenfield ■ Aberdeen Urban 140 Aberdeen has gained a reputation for its quality of life and top-performing 120 educational facilities. Furthermore, the area will become better 100 connected through the construction of the much-needed Aberdeen 80 Western Peripheral Route and 60 improvements to train connections to Inverness in the long term. Index (Sep 2005 = 100) 40 Residential Development Land Development 20 There is no doubt that housebuilders in Aberdeen are approaching new 0 land purchases with caution at the present time. Unlike residential sales, the length of time taken to Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 complete land transactions means Source: Savills Research the prices being recorded today bear little resemblance to what is actually FIGURE 5 occurring in the current market. Currently available prices for new build properties in Aberdeen city and surrounding areas The outlook for both sales prices and rates of sale for new homes is Average price Average price proving difficult to predict, and the Area per square foot per square metre risk to the housebuilder is therefore significantly increased. Whilst Central Aberdeen £346 £3,721 housebuilders will attempt to allow for incentives and future pricing when Western suburbs £315 £3,389 assessing land values, the best way to factor in the increased risk is to raise their profit margins. Northern suburbs £289 £3,107 Whilst most might have accepted Cove £281 £3,021 a margin of 20% historically, there is anecdotal evidence that many Stonehaven £272 £2,932 are moving towards 25%, or even higher. Raising the profit margin by just 5% can have a significant and Inverurie £267 £2,870 detrimental impact on appraisal land values, potentially reducing them by Chapelton £255 £2,749 some 20 to 25%. Ellon £255 £2,747 Elsewhere in Scotland There has been a notable drop Source: Savills Research in activity since the start of LBTT, with the number of prime sales end of the Aberdeen market above which was equal to the number over (above £400,000) recorded between £750,000 has remained relatively the same period last year. May and September this year falling active, particularly in recent months by 23%, compared to May and as it begins to adjust to the challenges Looking ahead September 2014 (see Figure 3). of LBTT. This is especially true for Assuming a subdued level of oil hotspots such as Aberdeen's West price, we expect a further adjustment There have only been 33 sales in End, where equity is driving this next year in prime (-10%), Scotland above £1 million, which is market. There were 14 second hand mainstream (-3%) and rental (-4%) 57% lower than the same period last sales above this level in the AB15 values across the Aberdeen area (see year. As a consequence of reduced postcode hotspot between May and Figure 2). In the event of an increase activity at the top end of the market, September this year, compared to 13 in oil price, we will witness a quicker the total LBTT revenue generated over the same period last year. There recovery in residential values over between May and September 2015 were five sales recorded above £1 the next five years. Despite current was 25% lower than SDLT revenue million in the Aberdeen area during challenges, the residential market is generated between the same period August and September this year, underpinned by a lack of supply in in 2014 (see Figure 6). savills.co.uk/research 03 Spotlight | Aberdeen Area Residential Market Edinburgh remains the hub of absorbing the turbulence of recent of the Mortgage Market Review Scotland’s prime market, accounting political and taxation challenges and (MMR). However, market growth is for 37% of prime sales between May begin the road to recovery, led by the spreading to secondary locations and September this year.