Shea-Porter and Hodes Widen Leads in Nh Congressional Races

Shea-Porter and Hodes Widen Leads in Nh Congressional Races

WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 28, 2008 UNH Survey Center - www.unh.edu/survey-center SHEA-PORTER AND HODES WIDEN LEADS IN NH CONGRESSIONAL RACES Durham, NH – Democrat Carol Shea-Porter has widened her lead over former incumbent Jeb Bradley in New Hampshire’s 1 st Congressional District. Incumbent Paul Hodes continues to maintain a wide lead over Republican newcomer Jennifer Horn in the 2 nd District. These findings are based on the 2008 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* Six hundred fifty-two (652) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 25 and October 27, 2008. The potential sampling error for the statewide survey is ±3.8%. Three-hundred twenty-nine (329) likely 1 st District voters were surveyed (margin of sampling error of +/- 5.4%) and 322 likely 2 nd District voters were interviewed (margin of sampling error +/-5.5%). For more information about the WMUR / UNH Election Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey- center/news/pdf/e2008_track08meth.pdf . NH First District In the race for New Hampshire’s 1 st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter has expanded her lead over Jeb Bradley in a rematch of their 2006 race. In the latest WMUR / UNH Tracking Poll, 50% of likely 1st District voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 37% favor Bradley, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 11% remain undecided. Support for Shea-Porter has increased steadily during the fall campaign. st 70% 1 C.D. Race – Shea -Porter vs. Bradley 60% 45% 48% 50% 50% 45% 46% 44% 40% 42% 39% 40% 39% 40% 30% 37% 20% 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% 11% 10% 0% April July '08 Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. 30 Oct. '08 '08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 - Nov. 31- 1 Nov.2 Shea-Porter Bradley Undecided * We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 1 NH Second District In the 2 nd District, Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes maintains a solid lead over Republican newcomer Jennifer Horn -- 51% of likely voters in the 2 nd District say they will vote for Hodes, only 21% say they will vote for Horn, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 27% remain undecided. 2nd C.D. Race – Hodes vs. Horn 70% 60% 52% 51% 51% 48% 50% 43% 38% 40% 26% 26% 27% 30% 25% 23% 25% 32% 33% 20% 25% 22% 24% 21% 10% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2 Hodes Horn Undecided President Barack Obama has widened his lead over John McCain in the race for President in New Hampshire. More than half of likely voters, 58%, say they plan to vote for Obama, 33% favor McCain, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 6% are undecided. US President in NH – McCain vs. Obama 70% 58% 55% 60% 54% 46% 50% 43% 45% 40% 49% 47% 43% 30% 39% 39% 33% 20% 6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 10% 5% 0% 08 2 il '08 ' -26 6-28 July '08 25-27 Nov. 1 Apr Sept. t. 18-2 t. 24 t. t. 2 ct. 28-30 t. 29-31 - Oc Oc Oc Oc Oct. 27-29 O Oc Oct. 31-Nov.2 Oct. 30 Obama McCain Undecided Obama has also widened his lead among independent voters in New Hampshire – 54% of political independents say they favor Obama, 26% favor McCain, 4% prefer some other candidate, and 16% are undecided. 2 US President Preference in NH Among Independent Voters 70% 60% 52% 54% 54% 61% 50% 42% 40% 35% 27% 41% 30% 31% 32% 20% 26% 26% 10% 0% Apr. July Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '08 '08 08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 30 - 31- Nov. 1 Nov.2 Obama McCain The most important issue in the presidential campaign to New Hampshire voters are jobs and the economy (45%), the war in Iraq (10%), the campaign against terrorism (8%), the recent stock market crash (7%), and health care (7%). Economic concerns have topped the list of important issues to New Hampshire voters since mid-summer. Most Important Issue in Presidential Campaign 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 -22 -31 t. 18 t. 24-26 t. 26-28 t. 27-29 t. 28-3 t. 29 Nov. 1 -Nov.2 c 0 - Oc Oc Oct. 25-27 O Oc Oc Oc t. 31 Oc Oct. 3 Jobs, Economy Iraq Terror Health Care Stock Market 3 US Senate In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails his 2002 challenger Jeanne Shaheen by sizeable margin. Currently, 50% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Shaheen, 36% will vote for Sununu, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 13% are undecided. NH Senate Race – Sununu vs. Shaheen 70% 60% 54% 54% 54% 52% 49% 49% 50% 46% 48% 50% 40% 44% 40% 42% 30% 38% 38% 37% 36% 38% 36% 13% 13% 20% 10% 12% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 0% 7 8 1 .2 '07 -29 b. '08 r. '08 9-31 July '07 July '08 28-30 Nov. -Nov Sep. Fe Ap Sep. '08 ct. 18-22 t. 24-26 t. 25-2 t. 26-2 t. 27 t. t. 2 O Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc ct. 31 t. 30 - O Oc Shaheen Sununu Undecided NH Governor Incumbent John Lynch continues to maintain a wide lead over Republican Joe Kenney in the race for New Hampshire Governor. Lynch currently leads Kenney by a 71% to 15% margin with 1% favoring some other candidate, and 13% undecided. The dynamics of this race closely resemble Lynch’s 2006 victory over Jim Coburn. NH Governor – Lynch vs. Kenney – Likely Voters 100% 90% 80% 71% 68% 67% 66% 67% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17% 16% 17% 17% 18% 15% 20% 10% 14% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2 Lynch Kenney Undecided 4 The most important issue in the governor’s race are jobs and the economy (29%), taxes (21%), the state budget (12%), education funding (13%) and health care (7%). Most Imp ortant Issue in NH Governor’s Campaign 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27 1 1 8-30 27-29 -Nov.2 t. 24-26 t. 25- t. 26-28 t. t. 2 t. 29-3 Nov. 1 Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc t. 30 - Oct. 3 Oc Jobs, Economy Taxes State Budget Educ. Funding Health Care NH Senate Democrats continue to lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire Senate -- 46% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State Senate district, 31% plan to vote for the Republican, and 21% are undecided. Vote for NH State Senate 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2 Republican Democrat Undecided 5 NH House Democrats also lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire House -- 45% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State House district, 29% plan to vote for the Republican, and 25% are undecided. Vote for NH House of Representatives 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2 Republican Democrat Undecided 6 PRES1: "Thinking about the presidential election in November, will you vote for Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin ... Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" ROTATE CANDIDATES INCLUDING LEANERS WHO HAVE BEEN PROBED * McCain Obama Other Undecided (N=) October 24-26 39% 55% 2% 5% 692 October 25-27 33% 58% 2% 6% 645 Registered Democrat 8% 91% 0% 1% 200 Registered Undeclared 29% 59% 2% 9% 266 Registered Republican 69% 20% 3% 8% 176 Democrat 5% 92% 0% 2% 301 Independent 26% 54% 4% 16% 99 Republican 74% 16% 2% 8% 224 Core Republican 85% 5% 3% 8% 179 Swing Voter 32% 52% 4% 12% 168 Core Democrat 3% 95% 0% 2% 298 Male 34% 56% 3% 6% 322 Female 33% 60% 0% 7% 322 High school or less 33% 58% 4% 6% 113 Some college 36% 53% 0% 11% 125 College graduate 41% 54% 1% 4% 234 Post-graduate 20% 71% 2% 7% 165 18 to 34 35% 61% 0% 4% 52 35 to 49 37% 55% 1% 7% 213 50 to 64 30% 63% 2% 6% 239 65 and over 31% 57% 3% 9% 118 Less than $30K 32% 58% 0% 10% 37 $30K to $60K 36% 58% 5% 1% 113 $60K to $75K 25% 71% 1% 3% 49 $75K to $100K 31% 66% 1% 2% 78 $100K or more 33% 60% 1% 5% 150 Attend services 1 or more/week 43% 45% 2% 10% 180 1-2 times a month 24% 68% 2% 6% 78 Less often 31% 62% 2% 5% 197 Never 27% 66% 1% 5% 172 10 yrs or less in NH 32% 55% 0% 13% 112 11 to 20 years 38% 55% 3% 4% 109 More than 20 years 33% 60% 2% 5% 411 North Country 44% 51% 0% 4% 62 Central / Lakes 33% 60% 2% 5% 107 Connecticut Valley 29% 66% 1% 4% 93 Mass Border 32% 57% 2% 9% 184 Seacoast 31% 61% 3% 5% 104 Manchester Area 35% 54% 3% 8% 94 Fisrt Cong.

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