CHAPTER 3 Northern Canada Lead authors: Chris Furgal1 and Terry D. Prowse2 Contributing authors: Barry Bonsal (Environment Canada), Rebecca Chouinard (Indian and Northern Affairs Canada), Cindy Dickson (Council of Yukon First Nations), Tom Edwards (University of Waterloo), Laura Eerkes-Medrano (University of Victoria), Francis Jackson (Indian and Northern Affairs Canada), Humfrey Melling (Fisheries and Oceans Canada), Dave Milburn (consultant), Scot Nickels (Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami), Mark Nuttall (University of Alberta), Aynslie Ogden (Yukon Department of Energy, Mines and Resources), Daniel Peters (Environment Canada), James D. Reist (Fisheries and Oceans Canada), Sharon Smith (Natural Resources Canada), Michael Westlake (Northern Climate ExChange), Fred Wrona (Environment Canada and University of Victoria) Recommended Citation: Furgal, C., and Prowse, T.D. (2008): Northern Canada; in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007, edited by D.S. Lemmen, F.J.Warren, J. Lacroix and E. Bush; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, p. 57-118. 1 Departments of Indigenous Studies and Environment and Resource Studies, Trent University, Peterborough, ON 2 Environment Canada and University of Victoria, Victoria, BC CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................................... 61 2 REGIONAL OVERVIEW ....................................................................................................................................... 62 2.1 Physical Geography............................................................................................................................... 62 2.2 Socioeconomic, Health and Demographic Conditions and Trends............................................... 64 2.3 Climatic Conditions, Past and Future ................................................................................................ 67 2.3.1 Past Climate ................................................................................................................................ 67 2.3.2 Future Climate............................................................................................................................ 68 3 IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING CLIMATE FOR THE ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT ............................... 74 3.1 Sea Ice ..................................................................................................................................................... 74 3.2 Snow Cover ............................................................................................................................................ 74 3.3 Glaciers and Ice Sheets ......................................................................................................................... 75 3.4 Permafrost.............................................................................................................................................. 75 3.5 River and Lake Ice................................................................................................................................. 77 3.6 Freshwater Discharge............................................................................................................................ 77 3.7 Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Stability ................................................................................................... 77 3.8 Terrestrial Vegetation Zones and Biodiversity .................................................................................. 78 3.9 Freshwater Ecosystems......................................................................................................................... 78 4 IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTATION WITHIN KEY SECTORS ....................................................................................................................................... 79 4.1 Hydroelectric Development................................................................................................................. 79 4.2 Oil and Gas............................................................................................................................................. 79 4.3 Mining .................................................................................................................................................... 80 4.4 Infrastructure......................................................................................................................................... 80 4.5 Transportation....................................................................................................................................... 82 4.5.1 Marine Traffic ............................................................................................................................. 82 4.5.2 Freshwater Transport................................................................................................................. 85 4.5.3 Winter Roads .............................................................................................................................. 86 4.6 Forestry................................................................................................................................................... 87 4.7 Fisheries.................................................................................................................................................. 93 4.8 Wildlife, Biodiversity and Protected Areas........................................................................................ 96 4.9 Tourism................................................................................................................................................... 99 5 COMMUNITIES, HEALTH AND WELL-BEING ............................................................................................. 99 5.1 Direct Impacts on Health and Well-Being....................................................................................... 100 5.2 Indirect Impacts on Health and Well-Being.................................................................................... 101 5.3 Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................................................... 105 6 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................................... 110 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................................................. 111 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................................... 112 58 | From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate KEY FINDINGS e climate of the Arctic has shown an unprecedented rate of change during the past 50 years. Over the last half century, the Canadian Arctic has experienced significant increases in both temperature and precipitation, consistent with trends in other circumpolar regions. Increases in air temperature have resulted in many of the most extreme warm years throughout the entire Canadian North being recorded in the last decade, with the greatest temperature increases observed over the western Arctic. All global climate models project continued increases in temperature and precipitation over the Canadian Arctic, with greatest temperature changes at higher latitudes. As a result, there will continue to be significant changes in the physical environment, particularly in the cryosphere (snow, glaciers, permafrost and river/lake/sea ice). ere is increasing evidence that changes in climate are already having impacts on ecological, economic and human systems in northern regions, and that some individuals, communities and institutions are already taking action to reduce harmful impacts. Current levels of exposure to climate-related changes and sensitivities, as well as limitations in adaptive capacity, make some northern systems and populations particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Key findings include the following: • Climate-induced changes in the cryosphere (permafrost, sea ice, lake ice and snow) have important implications for infrastructure maintenance and design. Much of the infrastructure in the North is dependent upon the cryosphere to, for example, provide stable surfaces for buildings and pipelines, contain wastes, stabilize shorelines and provide access to remote communities in the winter. Permafrost warming and thaw may require remedial action or further engineering modifications to existing infrastructure. Waste retention ponds and lakes that rely on the impervious nature of permafrost to retain environmentally hazardous materials are a particular concern. Climate change is already being considered in the design of most major projects in the North, including tailings containment structures, pipelines and roads, and large buildings. In the longer term, marine and freshwater transportation will need to shi its reliance from ice routes to open-water or land-based transport systems. Coastal areas and communities will also become more vulnerable to erosion due to loss of sea ice compounded by increased storminess and rising sea levels. Changes in the timing of river flows will require modifications to the infrastructure and flow strategies used in generating hydroelectricity. • As the climate continues to change,