Tweeting Tsunami: Early Warning Networks in British Columbia by Amanda Oldring B.A. (Hons. Psychology and English), Thompson Rivers University, 2007 Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in the School of Communication Faculty of Communication, Art and Technology Amanda Oldring 2015 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Fall 2015 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/) Approval Name: Amanda Oldring Degree: Master of Arts (Communication) Title: Tweeting Tsunami: Early Warning Networks in British Columbia Examining Committee: Chair: Betty Schellenberg Professor Peter Anderson Senior Supervisor Associate Professor Peter Chow-White Supervisor Associate Professor Gordon Gow External Examiner Associate Professor Communication and Technology University of Alberta Date Defended/Approved: December 16, 2015 ii Ethics Statement iii Abstract Influential Twitter users can enhance disaster warning by diffusing risk awareness through networks. While Twitter networks are frequently active during disaster warning, little work in social network analysis has been applied to the Pacific Northwest Coast, encapsulating British Columbia in Canada, and Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California in the United States. This region is vulnerable to tsunamis, and Twitter’s speed, reach, and volume could enhance early warning. This thesis locates a 1,932 follower network for @NWS_NTWC, this region’s source tsunami warning account. Profile content analysis identifies stakeholders and network analysis describes their interconnections by country, community, influence, and embeddedness. Opinion leaders were identified and surveyed (n=125) on Twitter usage and opinions for tsunami early warning. This mixed methods approach assesses how stakeholders can optimize warnings in Twitter. Key outcomes include a longitudinal baseline, network driven decision-making techniques, and strategies for alerting at-risk coastal areas. Keywords: tsunami early warning; self-reported geolocation; social network analysis; stakeholder content analysis; opinion leader detection and survey; Twitter iv Dedication This work is for anyone who decides to embark into something unexpected. It is also for those who recognize that every voice, especially the quiet ones, matters, and for those who strive in their own way to help those voices be heard, and to make life just a little bit easier, a little bit better for others all around. Above all this is for Stephanie, who encouraged me to do and be to the best of my abilities. v Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge my senior supervisor, Peter Anderson, and his project “Improving End-To-End Tsunami Warning for Risk Reduction on Canada’s West Coast”, for providing the institutional precedent, scholarly framework, and community resources necessary for completing this work. I would equally like to thank my supervisor, Peter Chow-White, and all my colleagues at GeNA Lab, for providing the theoretical inspiration, methodological expertise, and passion for big data and social media that are embedded throughout this project. A special thank you must be extended to my colleagues Olympia Koziatek, for providing the maps, and Maggie MacAuley, for introducing me to NodeXL and network analysis. A thesis can also never be completed without substantial financial support. To this end I would like to thank the donors of the Emergency Preparedness Conference Scholarship in Emergency Communications, the BC Egg Marketing Board, the Simon Fraser University Graduate Student Society, and the School of Communications for seeing merit in my research and acknowledging it with a consistent funding base. I would especially like to acknowledge the School of Communications for its inclusive, interdisciplinary and critical approach to scholarship which is difficult to find, challenging to meet, and utterly rewarding to be a part of. I would never have made it here without any of you. Finally I would like to thank my colleagues and peers at Simon Fraser University, in the Department of Communications and beyond, my family, and good friends, for their understanding, support, and love that kept me inspired along the way and gave me the momentum to complete the marathon that is a Master of Arts degree. vi Table of Contents Approval .......................................................................................................................... ii Ethics Statement ............................................................................................................ iii Abstract .......................................................................................................................... iv Dedication ....................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... vii List of Tables .................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures................................................................................................................. xi List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................ xii Introductory Image: The Cascadia Subnetwork ............................................................. xiii Chapter 1. Introduction: Tweeting Tsunami ............................................................. 1 1.1. Rationale ................................................................................................................ 2 1.2. Theoretical Backbone ............................................................................................. 3 1.3. Practical Motivations ............................................................................................... 4 1.4. Purpose and Scope ................................................................................................ 7 Chapter 2. Literature Review: Disaster are Social ................................................... 8 2.1. Disasters as Communicated Events ....................................................................... 8 2.2. Social Media Dependency in a World Risk Society ............................................... 15 2.3. Networked Influence ............................................................................................. 20 2.4. Warning in 140 Characters or Less ....................................................................... 23 2.5. Research Questions ............................................................................................. 28 Chapter 3. Methods: Navigating Networks............................................................. 30 3.1. Population and Sample ......................................................................................... 30 3.2. Content Analysis ................................................................................................... 32 3.3. Influence Analysis ................................................................................................. 34 3.4. Social Network Analysis ....................................................................................... 36 3.5. Survey Design ...................................................................................................... 39 3.6. Variable Summary ................................................................................................ 40 Chapter 4. Network Findings: Tweeting Tsunami .................................................. 41 4.1. Warnings on the West Coast ................................................................................ 43 4.2. Stakeholder Diversity ............................................................................................ 45 4.3. Networked Communication ................................................................................... 47 4.4. Proximity to Risk ................................................................................................... 51 4.5. Opinion Leader Subnetwork ................................................................................. 56 4.6. Boundary Benefits ................................................................................................ 58 Chapter 5. Survey Findings: Matters of Influence ................................................. 60 5.1. The Strength of Weak Ties ................................................................................... 61 vii 5.2. From Neighborhood to Network ............................................................................ 64 5.3. Content Management Preferences ....................................................................... 68 5.4. Boots on the Ground ............................................................................................ 74 5.5. The Way Ahead .................................................................................................... 81 Chapter 6. Analysis: Emerging Solutions .............................................................. 84 6.1. Recommendations for Improvement ..................................................................... 84 6.2. Capacity Outcomes .............................................................................................