Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR0001734 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IBRD 76850) ON A Public Disclosure Authorized LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$80 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF PANAMA FOR A PROTECTING THE POOR UNDER GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN Public Disclosure Authorized October 30 , 2010 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Central America Country Management Unit Latin American and the Caribbean Region Public Disclosure Authorized PANAMA - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of December 1, 2010) Currency Unit Balboa US$1.00 B./1.00 Weights and Measures: Metric System ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AIN-C Atención Integral a la Niñez en la Comunidad BNP National Bank of Panama CAR Capital Adequacy Ratio CBI International Banking Center (Centro Bancario Internacional) CCT Conditional Cash Transfer CD Cambio Democratico CFZ Colon Free Zone CPI Consumer Price Index DPL Development Policy Loan EEC Estrategia de Extensión de Cobertura FDI Foreign Direct Investment FSSRA Financial Sector Supervision and Regulation Assessment FY Fiscal Year of the World Bank (July 1 – June 30th) GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GOP Government of Panama IADB Inter-American Development Bank IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IMF International Monetary Fund LCR Latin America and Caribbean Region LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance MIDES Ministry of Social Development MINSA Ministry of Health NFPS Non-Financial Public Sector PAISS Paquete de Atención Integral de Servicios de Salud PCA Panama Canal Authority RdO Red de Oportunidades (the conditional cash transfer program) ROSC Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes SBN National Banking System (Sistema Bancario Nacional) SBP Superintendency of Banks of Panama SDR Special Drawing Rights SENAPAN National Nutrition Secretariat UNDP United Nations Development Program Vice President: Pamela Cox Country Director: Laura Frigenti Sector Director: Marcelo Giugale Sector Manager: Rodrigo A. Chaves Lead Economist/Sector Leader: J. Humberto Lopez Task Team Leaders: David M. Gould and Lars C. Moller ICR Team Leader Christian Y. Gonzalez PANAMA PROTECTING THE POOR UNDER GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN PANAMA CONTENTS Data Sheet A. Basic Information B. Key Dates C. Ratings Summary D. Sector and Theme Codes E. Bank Staff F. Results Framework Analysis G. Ratings of Program Performance in ISRs H. Restructuring 1. Program Context, Development Objectives and Design ................................................ 1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes .................................................. 5 3. Assessment of Outcomes ................................................................................................ 7 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome ............................................................ 17 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ......................................................... 17 6. Lessons Learned............................................................................................................ 19 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners ............... 19 Annex 1. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes ................. 20 Annex 2. Beneficiary Survey Results ............................................................................... 21 Annex 3. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results ....................................................... 22 Annex 4. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ......................... 23 Annex 5. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders ........................... 24 Annex 6. List of Supporting Documents .......................................................................... 25 MAP A. Basic Information Protecting the Poor under Global Country: Panama Program Name: Uncertainty Development Policy Loan Program ID: P115177 L/C/TF Number(s): IBRD-76850 ICR Date: 10/27/2010 ICR Type: Core ICR REPUBLIC OF Lending Instrument: DPL Borrower: PANAMA Original Total USD 80.0M Disbursed Amount: USD 80.0M Commitment: Revised Amount: USD 80.0M Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Economy and Finance Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 02/06/2009 Effectiveness: 07/31/2009 07/31/2009 Appraisal: 03/11/2009 Restructuring(s): Approval: 04/21/2009 Mid-term Review: Closing: 04/30/2010 04/30/2010 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Moderately Satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Low or Negligible Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Borrower Performance: Moderately Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Performance: Performance: i C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating: Performance (if any) Potential Problem Quality at Entry Program at any time No None (QEA): (Yes/No): Problem Program at any Quality of No None time (Yes/No): Supervision (QSA): DO rating before Moderately Closing/Inactive status: Satisfactory D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Banking 50 50 Health 25 25 Other social services 25 25 Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Child health 7 7 Health system performance 15 15 Nutrition and food security 8 8 Social safety nets 20 20 Standards and financial reporting 50 50 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Pamela Cox Pamela Cox Country Director: Laura Frigenti Laura Frigenti Sector Manager: Rodrigo A. Chaves Rodrigo A. Chaves Program Team Leader: Christian Yves Gonzalez Amador David Michael Gould ICR Team Leader: Christian Yves Gonzalez Amador ICR Primary Author: Christian Yves Gonzalez Amador F. Results Framework Analysis Program Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the DPL is to support the poverty reduction efforts of the Government of Panama in the context of the global economic crisis. Two complementary policy areas ii are supported: (i) Mitigating the impact of economic shocks on the poor through improved targetting and coverage of social programs; (ii) reducing economic risks of a banking crisis through enhanced risk management and strenghtened regulation and supervision. Revised Program Development Objectives (if any, as approved by original approving authority) (a) PDO Indicator(s) Original Target Formally Actual Value Values (from Revised Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value approval Target Completion or documents) Values Target Years The real value of monthly conditional cash transfers, adjusted by the consumer Indicator 1 : price index, has been maintained or increased for beneficiaries of the CCT program. Cannot be Value calculated ex-ante B./ 35 per month B./ 35 per month (in (quantitative or because inflation No change (in July 2008 July 2008 prices) Qualitative) until March, 31, prices) 2010 is unknown. Date achieved 07/01/2008 03/31/2010 03/31/2010 10/15/2010 Comments (incl. % N/A achievement) Number of social programs that are utilizing the Red de Oportunidades CCT Indicator 2 : program database to identify poor beneficiaries. 3 social programs are Value currently using the CCT (quantitative or 2 new programs No change 5 social programs database to target social Qualitative) spending. Date achieved 01/01/2009 03/31/2010 03/21/2010 10/15/2010 Comments (incl. % N/A achievement) Percentage of beneficiaries of the basic package of health services in poor and Indicator 3 : isolated rural communities that receive enhanced nutritional services to promote children's growth. Value (quantitative or 0 percent At least 75 percent No change 75 percent Qualitative) Date achieved 01/01/2009 03/31/2010 03/31/2010 10/15/2010 Comments (incl. % N/A achievement) iii Additional persons in poor and isolated rural communities that are receiving Indicator 4 : the new nutritional component of health services package. Value At least 60,000 (quantitative or 0 persons No change 60,000 persons persons Qualitative) Date achieved 01/01/2009 03/31/2010 03/31/2010 10/15/2010 Comments (incl. % N/A achievement) Social investment expenditures defined as priorities by the Acuerdos de la Indicator 5 : Concertación Nacional are fully executed as stipulated in the 2009 Budget Law. Value 100 percent or (quantitative or 0 percent No change 100 percent or more more Qualitative) Date achieved 01/01/2009 03/31/2010 03/31/2010 10/15/2010 Comments (incl. % N/A achievement) Degree of completion of consolidated supervision of the financial Indicator 6 : conglomerates as measured by assets. Value (quantitative or 0 percent At least 50 percent No change 50 percent Qualitative) Date achieved 01/01/2009 03/31/2010 03/21/2010 10/15/2010 Comments (incl. % N/A achievement) Percentage of banks that apply the new regulatory parameters for the use of Indicator 7 : guarantees to cover credit risk. Value (quantitative or 0 percent 100 percent No change 100 percent Qualitative) Date achieved 01/01/2009 03/31/2010 03/31/2010 10/15/2010