Cumbria Health Protection Board Weekly COVID-19 Summary Week 41 (Ending Friday 09 October) Summary Produced Wednesday 14 October Produced By Cumbria Resilience Multi Agency Intelligence Cell (MAIC) 1 Weekly Summary: Key points Week 41 (ending 09-Oct) Cases/demographics • 592 new cases in Cumbria (+219 increase from 373 cases in previous week); • For the 6th consecutive week Barrow-in-Furness had the greatest number of new cases (+191 new cases), followed by South Lakeland (+153); • Barrow-in-Furness also had the highest rate of new cases for the 5th week running (+191 new cases = 285 new cases per 100k population), followed by South Lakeland (+153 new cases = 146 new cases per 100k population); • Both Barrow and South Lakeland’s rates were higher than the national average (England = 139 new cases per 100k population); • The number of new cases increased from week 40 in all Cumbrian districts, with Barrow and South Lakeland experiencing the greatest numerical increases, while Eden experienced the greatest proportional increase (+105%). • Greatest number of new positive cases are those aged 15-29 years, however, there has been a recent increase in cases relating to older age groups. Mortality • Deaths due to COVID-19 remain stable; 3 registered deaths relating to COVID-19 [Week 40] Health and Hospitalisations • Continued increases in the number of patients admitted with COVID-19; and patients with COVID-19 in hospital beds Impact on sectors • Increases in the number of outbreaks and incidents in care homes and education settings [Further information and advice found here: https://cumbria.gov.uk/coronavirus/latest.asp] 2 R estimates & Growth Rates NHS Region Growth rate % Region R Source: gov.uk. Friday 09 October. per day North Cumbria falls within the North East and Yorkshire region. England 1.2-1.5 +4 to +8 The values are shown as a range, the most likely true East of England 1.3-1.6 +5 to +11 values are somewhere towards the middle of this range. London 1.2-1.4 +2 to +6 *Low case numbers and/ or a high degree of variability in transmission across the region means these estimates are Midlands 1.2-1.5 +4 to +8 insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions. North East and Yorkshire 1.3-1.5 +4 to +8 North West 1.2-1.4 +4 to +7 South East 1.2-1.4 +2 to +7 South West 1.3-1.6 +3 to +8 3 Cases Key Points for Cumbria’s districts in Week 41: • For the 6th consecutive week Barrow-in-Furness had the greatest number of new cases (+191 new cases), followed by South Lakeland (+153); • Barrow-in-Furness also had the highest rate of new cases for the 5th week running (+191 new cases = 285 new cases per 100k population), followed by South Lakeland (+153 new cases = 146 new cases per 100k population); • Both Barrow and South Lakeland’s rates were higher than the national average (England = 139 new cases per 100k population); • The number of new cases increased from week 40 in all Cumbrian districts, with Barrow and South Lakeland experiencing the greatest numerical increases, while Eden experienced the greatest proportional increase (+105%). Weekly Summary: Public Health England (PHE) COVID 19 Positive Cases (Includes Pillar 1 & Pillar 2) Mid-2019 Week 40 (Ending 02-Oct-20) Week 41 (Ending 09-Oct-20) Week 40 - Week 41 Change Increase in Rate of Rate of New Numerical Rate of New % Change Positive Total New Change in New New Positive Positive in New Population Cases Per Positive Positive New Positive Cases Cases Per Positive 100,000 Cases Cases Positive Cases Per 100,000 Cases Population Cases 100,000 Population Persons Cumbria 500,012 373 75 4,479 592 118 219 59 44 Allerdale 97,761 63 64 618 72 74 9 14 9 Barrow-in-Furness 67,049 111 166 1,060 191 285 80 72 119 Carlisle 108,678 46 42 1,011 82 75 36 78 33 Copeland 68,183 36 53 512 55 81 19 53 28 Eden 53,253 19 36 309 39 73 20 105 38 South Lakeland 105,088 98 93 964 153 146 55 56 52 Source: PHE Postcode COVID-19 Positive Cases Data Last Updated: 13/10/2020 Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result 4 Cumbria Cases Pillar 2 Testing Available Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result District Cases Barrow-in-Furness had the greatest number of new cases in week 41 and has experienced substantial increases in new cases over the last 6 weeks, South Lakeland has also experienced a large increases in the last 2 weeks. Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result. 6 Rate of Cases Per 100,000 Population Barrow-in-Furness’s rate of cases per 100k population has increased over the last 6 weeks and has remained well above the rates of Cumbria’s other districts and the national average rate during this time. South Lakeland’s rate has also shown a large increase in the last two weeks and is now just above the national average. Note: This represents the number of people with a positive test result per 100k population. 7 Daily Lab-confirmed cases – Pillar 1 & 2 [Preliminary up to 12 October] [Updated Wednesday 14 October 2020 at 4:01pm] 05-Oct 06-Oct 07-Oct 08-Oct 09-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct Allerdale 13 6 18 6 10 6 6 9 Barrow 39 31 31 32 15 16 11 22 Carlisle 13 12 22 15 9 17 12 23 Copeland 11 6 16 8 9 5 4 2 Eden 3 4 12 9 10 9 6 11 South Lakeland 32 35 19 15 16 9 12 14 Cumbria 111 94 118 85 69 62 51 81 Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ [Data is subject to revisions; most recent days are provisional and likely to increase as lab results are processed] 8 Cases by Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) 03 – 09 October District MSOAs with the greatest numbers of cases Allerdale West Cockermouth & Great Broughton (9); Workington West (9); East Cockermouth & Buttermere (8) Barrow-in-Furness Barrow Central (32); Orsmgill & Hindpool (24); Parkside (25) Carlisle Belle Vue & Brough (12); Kingmoor, Houghton & Whiteclosegate (11); Garlands & Dalston (10) Copeland Cleator Moor, Frizington & Ennerdale (13); Hensingham, Hillcrest & Aikbank (9) Eden Penrith Outer (14); Hesket, Lazonby & Skelton (4) South Lakeland Kendal South (22); Kendal Town & Greenside (11); Burton-in-Kendal, Levens & Natland (10) Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases Official Sensitive – not for sharing or publishing. Only for those working on Covid-19 response 9 Cases by Age Group In week 41 the greatest number of new cases in Cumbria related to the 15-29 year age group. This age group has accounted for the greatest number of new cases for 9 of the last 10 weeks. However, there have also been a recent increases in cases relating to older age groups, with the 45-59 age group showing a particularly large increase in the last week. Source: PHE (data represents the number of people with a positive test result) 10 Hospitalisations In the week ending 11th October: Source: NHS Daily Sit Rep Submissions. Please be aware that the data is collected as a ‘sitrep’ on the day and is not refined retrospective reporting data. It is susceptible to error caused by delays in data entry and as simple admin errors. There is no mechanism for updating or correcting any such occurrences with NHSE/i - the prime recipient. 11 Mortality: National data – Weekly Registered Deaths [Registrations up to Week 40 10 October 2020] Week 40 Crude rate per 100,000 Cumbria 0.6 per 100k England 0.53 per 100k North West 1.44 per 100k Source: Office for National Statistics 12.