CYNGOR SIR POWYS COUNTY COUNCIL LOCAL HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT Update 2014 Published: March 2015 1 Executive Summary This Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) is an update to the Powys LHMA published in 2010. The Welsh Government’s methodology as set out in the ‘Step by Step Guide’ (2012) was applied, updating and accounting for changes in population and household projections as identified in the initial 2011 Census results, changes in house prices and household income, as well as new information arising from housing registers, local needs surveys and anticipated impacts of the welfare reform. As population and household estimates and projections are constantly being revised, a Population & Housing Topic Paper will be published in addition to this assessment to outline any changes for the purpose of informing the Local Development Plan. This assessment will inform the preparation of both the Powys Local Development Plan and the Powys Housing Strategy. The LHMA will be updated every 2 years in accordance with the requirements set out by the new Housing Act 2014. There was found to be an increasing need for affordable housing for smaller households (one and two beds). The ageing population of Powys and the need to retain and increase the number of young adult households (particularly people in their 20s and 30s) contributes to this need. A large number of people on the council’s housing register were older persons and providing retirement and sheltered housing could help release homes and go some way to helping younger families and first time buyers. The great challenge of the welfare reform looms for households and social landlords. Whilst it is likely this will cause an increased need for one and two bedroom homes and put more pressure on social landlords, as it is likely to increase the cost of collecting rental income, reducing reserves which could potentially have been invested in the development of new homes, the full impacts are yet to be felt across the County. The identified need for affordable housing in Powys is shown in the table below:. net social Overall rented intermediate intermediate affordable need rented need for sale need housing need Powys 2011-16 1068 148 18 1,234 BBNP within Powys 2011-2016 432 33 4 469 Powys ex BBNP 2011-2016 636 115 14 765 Powys per year 214 30 4 247 BBNP within Powys per year 86 7 1 94 Powys ex BBNP per year 127 23 3 153 2 Note rows may not add due to rounding It comprises: 1,234 additional affordable housing units in Powys (including the Brecon Beacons National Park) over the 5 year period from 2011 to 2016 which equates to: 247 additional affordable housing units per year in Powys split between - . 94 per year in the Brecon Beacons National Park area of Powys . 153 per year in the remaining area of Powys Of the 247 units/annum in Powys the mix of housing need comprises: . 214 additional social rented housing units per year . 30 additional intermediate rented units per year . 4 additional intermediate / affordable housing for sale units per year These figures should be used as a guide and not taken as definite housing targets. They are subject to change and any additional information available should be taken into consideration. Please note that any text or numbers highlighted in the Powys green or red colours featured from chapter 4 onwards, correspond to final affordable housing need calculations as presented in chapter 8. Key pages that summarise and conclude housing data are pages 74-75. Following approval by portfolio holders and cabinet, this document will be circulated to the Strategic Housing Partnership, across the various Directorates of Powys County Council and to other relevant local authorities. 3 Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 7 2. The Powys Housing Market ..................................................................................... 9 Powys Rent Prices Overview .................................................................................... 10 Powys House Prices Overview .................................................................................. 11 Powys Household Tenure Estimates ......................................................................... 20 Dwelling Stock Condition ....................................................................................... 23 Empty Homes ............................................................................................................ 24 Housing Trends ......................................................................................................... 26 Rate of Development ............................................................................................. 26 Demolitions ............................................................................................................ 27 Affordability ................................................................................................................ 28 Social Rent Affordability ......................................................................................... 32 Intermediate Rent Affordability ............................................................................... 34 Private Rent Affordability ....................................................................................... 35 Home-Buy Affordability .......................................................................................... 36 Intermediate / Affordable Housing for Sale Affordability ........................................ 37 Low Cost Market Housing / Starter Homes Affordability ........................................ 37 Open Market Housing Affordability ........................................................................ 38 Summary of Affordability Assessment Results ...................................................... 39 3. Newly Arising Need from New Households ............................................................. 42 Powys Population Projections ................................................................................... 42 Powys Household Projections ................................................................................... 45 4. Affordability for Newly Arising Households ............................................................ 50 5. Existing Households Falling into Need .................................................................. 52 Homelessness ........................................................................................................... 52 Welfare Reform Changes .......................................................................................... 54 6. Backlog of Housing Need ...................................................................................... 57 Backlog of Social Housing Need ............................................................................... 57 Limitations .............................................................................................................. 63 Backlog of Intermediate Housing Need ..................................................................... 65 7. Affordable Housing Supply .................................................................................... 67 Social Rented Housing .............................................................................................. 67 Social Rent Turnover ............................................................................................. 69 Committed Supply of Affordable Housing .................................................................. 71 Summary of Social Housing Supply .......................................................................... 72 Empty Homes ........................................................................................................ 73 Limitations .............................................................................................................. 73 8. Net Annual Need for Affordable Housing 2011-2016 ............................................. 74 9. Local Housing Needs Survey ................................................................................. 79 10. Gypsy Traveller Accommodation Needs Assessment ........................................ 85 11. Conclusions & Recommendations ..................................................................... 86 Recommendations .................................................................................................... 88 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 90 Appendix A – Adjoining Authorities Local Housing Market Assessments ..................... 91 Ceredigion Local Housing Market Assessment 2011 ................................................ 92 Carmarthenshire Local Housing Market Assessment 2009 Annual Review .............. 93 Western Bay Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2012 ....................................... 94 Rhondda Cynon Taff County Borough Council Local Housing Market Assessment 2012 .......................................................................................................................... 95 4 Merthyr Tydfil County Borough Council Housing Market Assessment 2010.............. 96 Blaenau Gwent Local Housing Market Assessment Update 2012 ............................ 98 Newport, Torfaen & Monmouthshire Local Housing Market Assessment Update 2010, Torfaen Report .........................................................................................................