The 2017 Audit of UK Democracy October 2017 Editors: Professor Patrick Dunleavy Ros Taylor Core-funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust With the assistance of the London School of Economics and Political Science i Contributors Andrew Blick King’s College London Sonali Campion London School of Economics and Political Science Colin Copus De Montfort University Patrick Dunleavy London School of Economics and Political Science Michael Gordon University of Liverpool Joelle Grogan Middlesex University Jac Larner Cardiff University Ewan McGaughey King’s College London James Downe Cardiff University Malcolm Harvey University of Aberdeen Toby S James University of East Anglia Sean Kippin University of the West of Scotland James Mitchell Edinburgh University James Pattison University of Nottingham Artemis Photiadou London School of Economics and Political Science James Pow Queen’s University Belfast Diana Stirbu London Metropolitan University Ros Taylor London School of Economics and Political Science Tony Travers London School of Economics and Political Science Tracey Warren University of Nottingham Alan Whysall University College London This report is Copyright 2017 by Democratic Audit. www.democraticaudit.com ii Contents 1. How democratically do the main electoral systems operate? ............................. 1 1.1 The ‘Westminster plurality rule’ electoral system ............................................... 2 1.2 The reformed electoral systems used in mayoral and devolved elections ......... 13 1.3 The UK’s two proportional electoral systems .................................................... 24 1.4 Are UK elections conducted with integrity, with sufficient turnout? ................ 32 2. How democratic are political input processes? .................................................. 45 2.1 The UK’s political parties and party system ...................................................... 46 2.2 The interest group process across the UK .......................................................... 60 2.3 How well does the media system sustain democratic politics? .......................... 70 2.4 Does citizen vigilance and social media extend or threaten democratic practices? ............................................................................................................ 84 3. How democratically does the Parliament at Westminster work? .................... 94 3.1 How effective is the House of Commons in controlling UK government and representing citizens? ......................................................................................... 95 3.2 How well does the Commons scrutinise government policy-making – especially via the select committee system? ..................................................................... 105 3.3 How democratically accountable are the UK’s security and intelligence services? ........................................................................................................... 119 3.4 How undemocratic is the House of Lords? How could it be reformed? .......... 128 4. How democratic and effective is national government at the UK level? ....... 138 4.1 In terms of basic constitutional law ................................................................. 139 4.2 The core executive and government ................................................................ 147 4.3 The civil service and public services management systems? ........................... 162 4.4 In terms of Brexit ............................................................................................. 175 4.5 In the basic structure of devolution settlements ............................................... 183 5. How democratic are devolved government arrangements? ........................... 193 5.1 Scotland – devolved government and national politics.................................... 194 5.2 Scotland – local government and politics ........................................................ 203 5.3 Wales – devolved government and national politics........................................ 212 5.4 Wales – local government and politics ............................................................ 219 5.5 Northern Ireland – devolved government and politics ..................................... 227 iii 5.6 Northern Ireland – local government and politics............................................ 237 5.7 London – devolved government and politics at metropolitan level ................. 246 5.8 London – local government and politics within the metropolis ....................... 255 5.9 England – local government and politics ......................................................... 265 6. How well are the political and policy equalities essential for liberal democracy protected and promoted? ......................................................................................... 275 6.1 Gender equality ................................................................................................ 277 6.2 Equality amongst ethnic groups ....................................................................... 286 6.3 The rights of workers ....................................................................................... 298 6.4 Class disparities and social inequalities ........................................................... 308 iv 1. How democratically do the main electoral systems operate? • The ‘Westminster plurality rule’ electoral system • The reformed electoral systems used in mayoral and devolved elections • The UK’s two proportional electoral systems • Are UK elections conducted with integrity, with sufficient turnout? 1 1.1 The ‘Westminster plurality rule’ electoral system Patrick Dunleavy and the Democratic Audit team examine a topic of foundational importance for any liberal democracy – how well does its electoral system (in this case the Westminster Plurality Rule, aka First Past the Post) convert votes into seats? Photo: Jessica Cross via a CC-BY 2.0 licence What does democracy require for an electoral system? • It should accurately translate parties’ votes into seats in the legislature (e.g. Parliament), • In a way that is recognised as legitimate by most citizens (ideally almost all of them). • No substantial part of the population should regard the result as illegitimate, nor suffer a consistent bias of the system ‘working against them’. • If possible, the system should have beneficial effects for the good governance of the country. • If possible, the voting system should enhance the social representativeness of the legislature, and encourage high levels of voting across all types of citizens. 2 The plurality rule (or ‘first past the post’) voting system Used for: • Choosing MPs in the Westminster Parliament. • Electing local councillors in England (see forthcoming chapter on Local Government) How it works: The national territory is divided into constituencies, each electing one MP. Candidates stand for election from parties, and voters cast one vote for their top preference choice only. The party candidate who gets the largest pile of votes in each local area is elected. The winner doesn’t need to gain a majority (50% +1 of voters) to get elected, just more votes than anyone else. Recent developments The 2015 and 2017 general elections brought a host of changes, manifesting significant recent changes in the UK party system. In Scotland the Scottish National Party secured all but three of the 59 seats (95%) on the basis of 50% of the vote. In England UKIP piled up over 14% of the votes, but won only one seat (that it already held). The Liberal Democrats’ vote plunged from 23.5% to 8%, and their seats fell from 57 to just eight isolated survivors, spread across as many regions of the country. Disproportionality increased markedly in Scotland, and the south west region. Because of the collapse in the UKIP vote in 2017, the Conservatives clawed back a number of seats in Scotland but lost them elsewhere, leaving the party reliant on a confidence and supply deal with the DUP to hold on to power – despite a 45.6% vote share, almost nine percentage points higher than in 2015. A mapping of seats by party in Chart 1 below also shows what the Jenkins Commission called ‘electoral deserts’ dominated by single parties – in Scotland (now favouring the SNP); all of southern England (favouring the Conservatives); and the north-east (favouring Labour). 3 Chart 1: Seats won at the 2017 general election by the parties in Great Britain Source: BBC 4 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis Current strengths Current weaknesses Familiar system for British voters, dating back Large minorities of voters regard the seats to medieval times. results as illegitimate and distorted, since they rarely match votes shares well. Simple for people to vote (mark one X), easy Many voters demand an alternative system – to count, and voters can understand how the 32% in the 2011 AV referendum, and over result happened. two-fifths consistently favour PR systems in polls. 68% of voters supported the status quo in a Plurality rule always advantages the leading 2011 national referendum where the reform parties that can pile up votes in ‘stronghold’ option on offer was the ‘alternative vote’ (AV) seats – either Conservatives or Labour system (used in Australia). (depending who’s in the lead) and now the SNP in Scotland. n GB conditions, the system has tended to It heavily discriminates against parties with produce ‘artificial’ majorities for the leading dispersed support that only run second or third party.