TILBURG UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF TRENTO MSc Sociology An integrated and dynamic approach to the life cycle of populist radical right parties: the case of Lega Nord Supervisors: Dr Koen Abts Prof. Mario Diani Candidate: Alessandra Lo Piccolo 2017/2018 1 Abstract: This work aims at explaining populist radical right parties’ (PRRPs) electoral success and failure over their life-cycle by developing a dynamic and integrated approach to the study of their supply-side. For this purpose, the study of PRRPs is integrated building on concepts elaborated in the field of contentious politics: the political opportunity structure, the mobilizing structure and the framing processes. This work combines these perspectives in order to explain the fluctuating electoral fortune of the Italian Lega Nord at the national level (LN), here considered as a prototypical example of PRRPs. After the first participation in a national government (1994) and its peak in the general election of 1996 (10.1%), the LN electoral performances have been characterised by constant fluctuations. However, the party has managed to survive throughout different phases of the recent Italian political history. Scholars have often explained the party’s electoral success referring to its folkloristic appeal, its regionalist and populist discourses as well as the strong leadership of Umberto Bossi. However, most contributions adopt a static and one-sided analysis of the party performances, without integrating the interplay between political opportunities, organisational resources and framing strategies in a dynamic way. On the contrary, this work focuses on the interplay of exogenous and endogenous factors in accounting for the fluctuating electoral results of the party over three phases: regionalist phase (1990-1995), the move to the right (1998-2003) and the new nationalist period (2012-2018). Secondary data are used to gather evidence about the political opportunities structure and the party’s mobilizing structure, while frame changes are assessed through the investigation of party’s newspapers. Keywords: Populist radical right, supply-side, political opportunity structure, mobilizing structure, framing processes, Lega Nord 2 Index Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Theoretical framework ....................................................................................................................... 6 Populist radical right: a minimal definition .................................................................................... 6 PRRPs: demand-side explanations ................................................................................................. 8 The supply -side: explaining PRR success .................................................................................. 11 Contentious politics and institutional politics: political process .................................................. 17 Political opportunity structure ...................................................................................................... 18 Mobilizing structure ..................................................................................................................... 20 Framing processes ........................................................................................................................ 23 Linking PRRPs and contentious politics ...................................................................................... 26 Data and methods ............................................................................................................................. 30 Selection of the empirical case: the Lega Nord life cycle ............................................................ 30 Data and analytical strategy ......................................................................................................... 33 Results .............................................................................................................................................. 38 The regionalist phase 1990-1995 ................................................................................................. 38 Setting the stage: The Leagues’ phenomenon .......................................................................... 38 Political opportunity structure ...................................................................................................... 44 Party system: the end of the First Republic .............................................................................. 45 Electoral system: changing rules and new equilibria ............................................................... 50 Legal system: Bribesville and Lega Nord ................................................................................ 53 Media system: look at me ......................................................................................................... 55 Mobilizing structure ..................................................................................................................... 56 Formal party organisation: structuring the party ...................................................................... 56 Internal and external leadership: the Senatùr ........................................................................... 59 Grass-roots organisation: subculture and activists ................................................................... 62 Framing processes: anti-system frame ......................................................................................... 67 Diagnostic frame: shame on you (all) ...................................................................................... 67 Prognostic frame: federalism, that’s it! .................................................................................... 70 Motivational frame: from the free people, for the free people ................................................. 72 Move to the right (1998-2003) ......................................................................................................... 76 The radicalisation (1996-1998) .................................................................................................... 76 Political opportunity structure ...................................................................................................... 81 Party system: together again .................................................................................................... 82 Electoral system: a double-edged sword .................................................................................. 87 Legal system: prisoners of the central state .............................................................................. 89 Media system: spectacular politics ........................................................................................... 90 3 Mobilizing structure ..................................................................................................................... 91 Formal party organisation: strengthening the party ................................................................. 91 Internal and external leadership: reinforcing the hegemony .................................................... 93 Grass-roots organisation: subculture and activists ................................................................... 96 Framing processes: glocalist frame ............................................................................................ 100 Diagnostic frame: enemies from the left ................................................................................ 100 Prognostic frame: together alone ............................................................................................ 103 Motivational frame: top-down and bottom-up ....................................................................... 105 The nationalist phase 2012-2018 .................................................................................................... 107 The second transition (2008-2011) ............................................................................................ 107 Political opportunity structure .................................................................................................... 111 Party system: the crisis of the Second Republic ..................................................................... 111 Electoral system: coalition equilibria ..................................................................................... 120 Legal system: the scandal ....................................................................................................... 123 Media system: from the leader to you .................................................................................... 124 Mobilizing structure ................................................................................................................... 126 Formal party organisation: everything is changing ................................................................ 126 Internal and external leadership: the beginning of a new era ................................................. 130 Grass-roots organisation: subculture and activists ................................................................. 135 Framing processes: national preference frame ........................................................................... 141 Diagnostic frame: On its way back .......................................................................................