Regional Economic Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise In San Diego County Prepared for San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative Center for the Blue Economy Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey March 2018 0 Contents List of Figures and Tables .................................................................................................. 2 Authors ................................................................................................................................ 4 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 5 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 10 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 12 2. Summary of Findings ................................................................................................... 15 Major Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 15 How the Risks of Sea Level Rise Shape Vulnerabilities ................................................................... 22 3. Detailed Analysis ......................................................................................................... 23 Summary for San Diego County .................................................................................................... 23 Flooding Scenarios and Vulnerability ............................................................................................ 26 Employment Vulnerabilities ......................................................................................................... 28 Sales Vulnerabilities ..................................................................................................................... 30 Vulnerabilities to Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................... 31 Vulnerabilities by Industry ........................................................................................................... 31 Vulnerabilities by City .................................................................................................................. 35 Special Note: The Port of San Diego ............................................................................................. 39 Vulnerabilities Measured by Commercial Property Values ............................................................ 40 4. Factors Affecting Over- and Under- Estimates of Vulnerability ............................... 49 5. Responding to Climate Risks in the Coastal San Diego County Economy ................ 50 Appendix 1: Vulnerability Assessment Methodology .................................................... 54 Appendix 2: InfoUSA Methodology ................................................................................. 56 Appendix 3 Detailed Economic Impact Tables by Industry .......................................... 60 Appendix 4: Detailed Property Value Tables ................................................................ 74 Appendix 5: Comparison of CoSMoS and NFIP ............................................................... 78 1 List of Figures and Tables Figure 1 Employment establishments relative to potential flood Areas based on 100-year Coastal Storm Intensity and 1 and 2-meter sea level rise ............................................... 11 Figure 3 Sea Level Rise Projections Used for Planning. ........................................................... 13 Figure 4 Comparison of impacts using the upper (100-year storm) and lower (1-year storm) bounds of the medium (1 meter) and high (2 meter) SLR scenarios. ................ 15 Figure 5 Number of industries affected ..................................................................................... 16 Figure 6 Employment (unadjusted for flood depth) in 100-year storm and 100 centimeters of Sea Level Rise: industries in all CoSMoS scenarios ................................................................... 17 Figure 7 Daily sales vulnerabilities by scenarios ......................................................................... 18 Figure 8 Most impacted areas by employment (weighted) under 1-year or 100-yr expected flood frequency and 2m SLR............................................................................................... 19 Figure 9 Flooding summary by scenario .................................................................................. 20 Figure 10 Employment vulnerability unadjusted and adjusted by flood depth .................... 21 Figure 11 Commercial & Industrial structure assessed value vulnerable to flooding: unadjusted and adjusted for flood depth .......................................................................... 21 Figure 12 Histogram of Depth Distribution of Employment Establishments- 100-year storm 200- meter SLR ............................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 13 CoSMoS 100-year flood scenarios- Southern San Diego County ................................ 27 Figure 14 Employment at industry location. ............................................................................ 28 Figure 15 Number of industries in flood scenarios .................................................................. 32 Figure 16 Lands of the Unified Port District of San Diego ........... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 17 Share of C&I Improvement Valuation by City for 100- year storm - 2-meter sea level rise scenario ................................................................................................................ 46 Figure 18 Comparison of CoSMoS 100-year storm and zero sea level rise with FEMA Estimates. (Depths in centimeter)........................................................................................................... 78 Figure 19 Comparison of C&I parcels in CoSMoS and NFIP flood zones and parcels covered by NFIP. ..................................................................................................................................... 79 .Figure 20 Comparison of vulnerability in FEMA flood zone and CoSMoS model. ................. 81 Table 1 Summary of economic impacts (unweighted and weighted) in San Diego County estimated from CoSMoS flood scenarios ........................................................................... 25 Table 2 CoSMoS Flood Depth Estimates by Scenario ............................................................... 26 Table 3 Impacts to employment in each of the modeled scenario. ......................................... 29 Table 4 Estimated Sales Vulnerabilities by Scenario .............................................................. 30 Table 5 Gross Domestic Product Vulnerabilities by Scenario ................................................ 31 Table 6 Estimated vulnerabilities by top 15 industries in the Flooding-100 yr storm - 1m SLR scenario. ........................................................................................................................ 34 Table 7 Indicators of Economic Importance of Most Vulnerable Industries ......................... 35 Table 8 Economic vulnerabilities by city and flood scenario. ................................................. 36 Table 9 Property vulnerabilities by Scenario- San Diego County ........................................... 41 Table 10 Assessed value ($ Millions) vulnerabilities by scenario for All Parcels and Commercial/Industrial Parcels: San Diego County .......................................................... 41 2 Table 11 Top Ten Commercial & Industrial C&I Property Value Vulnerabilities by Scenario ($ Millions) ........................................................................................................................... 44 Table 12 Commercial and Industrial Property Vulnerabilities by City and Scenario ........... 47 Table 13 Property Tax Revenue Vulnerabilities from Depth-Adjusted C&I Property Values ($ Thousands) ...................................................................................................................... 48 Table 14 Decile weights for adjusting for flood depths in economic analysis. ...................... 55 Table 15 Info group standardized employment size range. .................................................... 57 Table 16 1 Year Storm, Zero Sea Level Rise .............................................................................. 60 Table 17 1 Year Storm, 100 centimeters Sea Level Rise .......................................................... 61 Table 18 1 Year Storm, 200 centimeters Sea Level Rise .......................................................... 63 Table 19 100 Year Storm, FEMA Flood Zone ............................................................................ 66 Table 20 100 Year Storm, Zero centimeters Sea Level Rise .................................................... 67 Table 21 100 Year Storm, 100 centimeters Sea Level Rise ...................................................... 69 Table 22 100 Year Storm, 200 centimeters Sea Level Rise ...................................................... 72 Table 23 Assessed value vulnerabilities by city. ....................................................................... 74 Table 24 Comparison of CoSMoS 100 Year Storm Zero Sea Level Rise