For Research Use Rio Grande National Forest – Sagebrush Bibliography Prepared by Janine Rice, PhD Rice Consulting LLC November 10, 2016 Contents Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Sagebrush: Ecology and Climate .................................................................................................... 3 Sagebrush: Carbon Cycle and Climate ........................................................................................... 7 Sagebrush: Fire, Stressors and Climate .......................................................................................... 8 Sagebrush: Vegetation Modeling .................................................................................................... 9 Sagebrush: Management and Restoration ..................................................................................... 14 Relevant Publications in other Bibliography Chapters ................................................................. 17 Vulnerability Assessments and Reports Bibliography ............................................................. 17 Spruce-Fir Bibliography ........................................................................................................... 17 --Ctrl/Click to follow link above Overview This bibliography provides relevant scientific citations with abstracts on topics identified by the Rio Grande National Forest staff as important to the development of their assessment and plan components. The document is for use by National Forest System staff and the citations may be helpful to document scientific understandings about ecological processes, structure and function of the landscapes that will be managed. Abstracts of some publications are copyrighted material. However, this bibliography is for research use, the synthesis of scientific information, and as such, meets Fair Use criteria. Where a federal employee is an author, the publication is not copyrighted. NFS staff may access the full citation through web services provided by the Forest Service National Library. URLs are given for most of the publications and some of these URLs presume access to the National Library services. The collection of studies, sorted by date, depict the ecology of sagebrush ecosystems, plant species reaction to disturbance and climate change, restoration under climate change, and vulnerability assessments. The collection of studies focus on climate effects and especially drought, disturbance, and management activities on sagebrush woodlands. Searches to collect literature included keywords: “San Juan”, “Sangre de Cristo”, “Rio Grande”, “Rocky Mountain”, “Colorado”, “sagebrush”, “mountain sagebrush”, “climate change”, “drought”, “phenology”, “genetic”, “disturbance”, “evapotranspiration”, “fragmentation”, “connectivity”, “carbon” and 1 For Research Use “vegetation model.” Search engines that were used included: GoogleScholar, Web of Science, Tree Search, and JSTOR. Regional studies covering the Rio Grande national forest are included, as climate change effects site specific studies on Rio Grande sagebrush ecosystems were not found. Several studies include regions that overlap the Rio Grande national forest or are in similar climates. The majority of studies in the western US or are regional vegetation modeling. 2 For Research Use Sagebrush: Ecology and Climate Palmquist, K.A.; Schlaepfer, D.R.; Bradford, J.B. and Lauenroth, W.K. 2016. Mid‐latitude shrub steppe plant communities: Climate change consequences for soil water resources. Ecology. 97(9): 2342–2354. URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/ecy.1457/abstract Article Relevance: Modeling study of several sites across the western US showing effects of earlier snowmelt potentially hindering sagebrush from drier growing seasons. Geographic Relevance: Western United States Keywords: Artemisia tridentata, dryland, GCM, RCP, sagebrush, semiarid, water balance, climate change, ecohydrology Abstract: (Not copyrighted) In the coming century, climate change is projected to impact precipitation and temperature regimes worldwide, with especially large effects in drylands. We use big sagebrush ecosystems as a model dryland ecosystem to explore the impacts of altered climate on ecohydrology and the implications of those changes for big sagebrush plant communities using output from 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We ask: 1) What is the magnitude of variability in future temperature and precipitation regimes among GCMs and RCPs for big sagebrush ecosystems and 2) How will altered climate and uncertainty in climate forecasts influence key aspects of big sagebrush water balance? We explored these questions across 1980-2010, 2030-2060, and 2070-2100 to determine how changes in water balance might develop through the 21st century. We assessed ecohydrological variables at 898 sagebrush sites across the western US using a process-based soil water model, SOILWAT to model all components of daily water balance using site-specific vegetation parameters and site-specific soil properties for multiple soil layers. Our modeling approach allowed for changes in vegetation based on climate. Temperature increased across all GCMs and RCPs, while changes in precipitation were more variable across GCMs. Winter and spring precipitation was predicted to increase in the future (7% by 2030-2060, 12% by 2070-2100), resulting in slight increases in soil water potential (SWP) in winter. Despite wetter winter soil conditions, SWP decreased in late spring and summer due to increased evapotranspiration (6% by 2030-2060, 10% by 2070-2100) and groundwater recharge (26% and 30% increase by 2030-2060 and 2070-2100). Thus, despite increased precipitation in the cold season, soils may dry out earlier in the year, resulting in potentially longer drier summer conditions. If winter precipitation cannot offset drier summer conditions in the future, we expect big sagebrush regeneration and survival will be negatively impacted, potentially resulting in shifts in the relative abundance of big sagebrush plant functional groups. Our results also highlight the importance of assessing multiple GCMs to understand the range of climate change outcomes on ecohydrology, which was contingent on the GCM chosen. Bradford, J.B.; Schlaepfer, D.R. and Lauenroth, W.K. 2014. Ecohydrology of adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems: The consequences of climate change and disturbance. Ecosystems. 17(4): 590-605. URL: http://search.proquest.com/docview/1525892733?pq-origsite=360link 3 For Research Use Article Relevance: Climate change and bark beetle effects on ecohydrology of sagebrush near lodgepole pine. Geographic Relevance: Northcentral Colorado Keywords: Artemisia tridentata, bark beetles, Pinus contorta, plant–climate interactions, plant– soil interactions, wildfire Abstract: (Not copyrighted) Sagebrush steppe and lodgepole pine forests are two of the most widespread vegetation types in the western United States and they play crucial roles in the hydrologic cycle of these water-limited regions. We used a process-based ecosystem water model to characterize the potential impact of climate change and disturbance (wildfire and beetle mortality) on water cycling in adjacent sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems. Despite similar climatic and topographic conditions between these ecosystems at the sites examined, lodgepole pine, and sagebrush exhibited consistent differences in water balance, notably more evaporation and drier summer soils in the sagebrush and greater transpiration and less water yield in lodgepole pine. Canopy disturbances (either fire or beetle) have dramatic impacts on water balance and availability: reducing transpiration while increasing evaporation and water yield. Results suggest that climate change may reduce snowpack, increase evaporation and transpiration, and lengthen the duration of dry soil conditions in the summer, but may have uncertain effects on drainage. Changes in the distribution of sagebrush and lodgepole pine ecosystems as a consequence of climate change and/or altered disturbance regimes will likely alter ecosystem water balance. Strand, E.K.; Launchbaugh, K.L.; Limb, R.F. and Torell, L.A. 2014. Livestock grazing effects on fuel loads for wildland fire in sagebrush dominated ecosystems. Journal of Rangeland Applications. 1: 35-57. URL: http://journals.lib.uidaho.edu/index.php/jra/article/view/12 Article Relevance: Literature synthesis on big sagebrush regeneration. Geographic Relevance: Western United States Keywords: recruitment, sagebrush steppe, Sage-Grouse habitat, seedlings, seeds Abstract: (Not copyrighted) Big sagebrush, Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (Asteraceae), is the dominant plant species of large portions of semiarid western North America. However, much of historical big sagebrush vegetation has been removed or modified. Thus, regeneration is recognized as an important component for land management. Limited knowledge about key regeneration processes, however, represents an obstacle to identifying successful management practices and to gaining greater insight into the consequences of increasing disturbance frequency and global change. Therefore, our objective is to synthesize knowledge about natural big sagebrush regeneration. We identified and characterized the controls of big sagebrush seed production, germination, and establishment. The largest knowledge gaps and associated research