Copyright by Todd Davis Carroll 2011 The Thesis Committee for Todd Davis Carroll Certifies that this is the approved version of the following thesis: Opportunities and Challenges for High-Speed Rail Corridors in Texas APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Supervisor: C. Michael Walton Jolanda Prozzi Opportunities and Challenges for High-Speed Rail Corridors in Texas by Todd Davis Carroll, B.S.C.E. Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering The University of Texas at Austin August 2011 Dedication ―Restlessness is discontent and discontent is the first necessity of progress. Show me a thoroughly satisfied man and I will show you a failure.‖ – Thomas Alva Edison For future generations unknowingly burdened by current lifestyles of irresponsible consumption of bounded resources resulting in rampant social inequities and unnecessarily arduous, insurmountable challenges. There is no better time for corrective action than the present, as the cost of doing nothing is not zero. Acknowledgments I greatly appreciate the faculty and staff of the transportation engineering program at UT- Austin and the Center for Transportation Research with whom I‘ve worked closely in the last two years. Special thanks to C. Michael Walton and Jolanda Prozzi for valuable advice and technical insight. Additionally, I‘d like to thank Chandra Bhat for his encouragement both at the undergraduate and graduate level and Vicki Simpson for her eager personal assistance. Many thanks, of course, to my parents for selflessly accepting my pursuit of two degrees more than half a continent away, undoubtedly a challenging, yet rewarding allowance for both them and me. Finally, to the vast group of mixed Austin personalities with whom I‘ve become familiar over the last seven years: you will continue to color my perspectives, challenge my assumptions, and make me smile long into the future. Submitted August 12, 2011 v Abstract Opportunities and Challenges for High-Speed Rail Corridors in Texas Todd Davis Carroll, MSE The University of Texas at Austin, 2011 Supervisor: C. Michael Walton Texas features a growing economy and population. The state boasts a large and well- developed network of roads, freight railroads, and air facilities, which make the state a vital link in the movement of people and goods. However, as the state continues to grow in population and economic significance, these systems are straining to meet state, national, and even global needs. It is increasingly obvious to residents and state officials that Texas should consider implementing alternative modes of transport, including development of passenger rail, for which Texas currently lags behind many of its peer states. Passenger rail provides quantifiable benefits in displacing less energy-efficient and higher pollutant-emitting air and automobile modes while generating potential positive economic impacts and enhancing consumer choice and multimodalism. Conveniently, renewed national interest in rail has invigorated research measuring the applicability of passenger rail services to many different regions of the United vi States, with the possibility that future national transportation visions will include passenger rail as an essential element. This thesis seeks to clarify the potential for passenger rail specifically in Texas through comparison and contrast with other regions and nations in the midst of new national-level knowledge and the changing transportation opportunities and challenges facing the state. Some of the ideal characteristics of successful international passenger systems exist in Texas, including optimal city spacing and a well-established rail network, which have fuelled ongoing interest demonstrated by various system proposals for high-speed intercity transportation in Texas over the last four decades. Despite these characteristics, the state presents a number of barriers to rail transport rooted in low transit use coupled with generally lower density and ambivalent support from politicians and residents when officials present realities of eminent domain and land use changes. However, with revitalized national rail interest and new federal rail planning requirements, the state may yet be able to work through these challenges to exploit the opportunities the state possesses. vii Table of Contents List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. xi Chapter 1: Introduction and Background .......................................................................................... 1 History of State Transportation Facilities Development.......................................................... 5 Population Growth ................................................................................................................ 12 Economic Changes and Employment Growth ...................................................................... 14 Congestion and Demand Challenges ................................................................................... 18 Energy and Environmental Concerns ................................................................................... 22 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................ 23 Chapter 2: Texas Rail in a National Context .................................................................................. 25 National Rail Policies ............................................................................................................ 25 Texas‘ Freight Rail Role ....................................................................................................... 27 Amtrak Services .................................................................................................................... 28 Heartland Flyer ............................................................................................................ 28 Texas Eagle ................................................................................................................ 29 Sunset Limited ............................................................................................................ 29 Lessons From Texas TGV .................................................................................................... 30 Lessons From Other Regions and States ............................................................................ 35 California ..................................................................................................................... 36 Florida ......................................................................................................................... 39 Midwest ....................................................................................................................... 44 Northeast ..................................................................................................................... 47 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................ 50 Chapter 3: High-Speed Rail in a Texas Geographic Context ......................................................... 52 Statewide Population Profile ................................................................................................. 52 Urban Population Density ..................................................................................................... 58 Emerging Megaregions ......................................................................................................... 60 City-to-City Distances ........................................................................................................... 63 Regional Economic Impacts ................................................................................................. 66 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................ 69 Chapter 4: Potential High-Speed Rail Intermodalism ..................................................................... 70 Urban Transit ........................................................................................................................ 70 viii Airport and Local Rail Intermodalism .................................................................................... 74 Texas Airport Rail Connections ............................................................................................ 79 Austin .......................................................................................................................... 80 Dallas Love Field ......................................................................................................... 81 Dallas-Fort Worth International ................................................................................... 82 El Paso ........................................................................................................................ 83 Houston Hobby ........................................................................................................... 84 Houston Bush Intercontinental .................................................................................... 85 San Antonio ................................................................................................................. 86 Regional