Keeping Faith with Trump: The Dangerous Causes and the Consequences Lorne L. Dawson i Keeping Faith with Trump: The Dangerous Causes and the Consequences Lorne L. Dawson ICCT Perspective January 2021 ii About ICCT The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (ICCT) is an independent think and do tank providing multidisciplinary policy advice and practical, solution- oriented implementation support on prevention and the rule of law, two vital pillars of effective counterterrorism. ICCT’s work focuses on themes at the intersection of countering violent extremism and criminal justice sector responses, as well as human rights-related aspects of counterterrorism. The major project areas concern countering violent extremism, rule of law, foreign fighters, country and regional analysis, rehabilitation, civil society engagement and victims’ voices. 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ICCT Perspective January 2021 ISSN: 2468-0486 iii Contents How People Respond to the Failure of Prophecies 1 Why People Adopt Extreme Beliefs 2 The Role of Social Dynamics and Networks in Consolidating Extremist Movements 3 The Nature and Operation of Charismatic Leadership and Authority 3 Bibliography 5 About the Authors 7 iv How People Respond to the Failure of Prophecies As multiple polls show, the vast majority of the seventy- example, do not give up or turn their backs on those who million Americans who voted for Trump continue to put made the prophecy. Rather research shows they often their faith in him as their president.1 In the face of so instead hunker down and consolidate their commitment little evidence of voter fraud, why do so many people to the cause, and some supporters may even increase still believe his outlandish claims about the stolen their proselytising. They employ an array of identified election? Why do they think he should continue to be rationalisations to dissipate their disappointment and the president, even after the storming of the Capitol by engage in acts of reaffirmation – often ritualistic in a violent mob? Setting aside the vested interests of such nature – to sustain their movement.3 figures as Senator Ted Cruz, lawyer Rudy Giuliani, or Fox News commentator Sean Hannity, why are so many Analysis of numerous studies of groups coping with “ordinary” Americans still so invested in the myth of a failure of prophecy suggests there are four main Trump, of his virtue and invincibility? Why did they think types of rationalisation employed. In accounting for the that Trump would never leave the Oval Office, that there disconfirmation, leaders may choose to characterise the would be a smooth transition, as Secretary of State failed prophecy as a “test of faith,” or say that the result Mike Pompeo strangely asserted after the election, into stems from “human error.” They may “blame others” for Trump’s second term?2 The situation strikes many as the missed opportunity, or offer what Gordon Melton bizarre, and there appears to be even be a blurring of calls a “spiritualisation” of events.4 These rationalisations the lines between fantasy and reality for some. tend to occur in various combinations. Blaming others, for instance, may involve claiming that the believers Social scientists have been studying situations where did not prepare properly, or that the news media people continue to believe things that appear to have misunderstood what was at stake; or it may entail new been resoundingly refuted for decades, but rarely on revelations that some hostile agency, often supernatural such a massive scale. To briefly gain some perspective, for religious groups, interfered with the prediction. we can glean pertinent insights from research on four aspects of the study of extremism: how people respond In the study of religious groups, historical and to the failure of prophecies; why people adopt extreme contemporary, much actually depends on the successful beliefs; the role of social dynamics and networks in implementation of a spiritualisation of the prophecy and consolidating extremist movements; and the nature and the reaffirmation of commitment to the group through operation of charismatic leadership and authority. the creation and staging of new rituals and events. When nature, God, or our fellow humans fail either to In each case, the relevant literature is vast, and the destroy the world as predicted, or when the start of the findings complex. Nevertheless, there are certain millennium is postponed once again, prophetic leaders key takeaways, which can be summarised in fairly commonly seek to confound their critics by claiming that straightforward terms. These coalesce to provide the events expected in this world have actually come a better sense of what has been happening during true on another plane of existence or in another way. Trump’s provocative presidency, and why his popularity Christ did not literally return, as anticipated, or the extra- may make him a force to reckon with for some time to terrestrials did not land as predicted. Jesus, however, come. has set in motion the final process for our redemption in heaven, or the mothership of the extra-terrestrials is now So, what are some of the pertinent lessons learned from orbiting the globe, but it is not yet propitious to land. This these four areas of research? spiritualisation of the prophecy succeeds best when it is accompanied by a new program of activities, designed to mark and memorialise the moment when the faith of the followers was tested and reaffirm everyone’s How People Respond to the commitment to the mission. Success also is contingent on how well the group has been prepared for hearing Failure of Prophecies and accepting such an alternative account, how gifted the leader is in managing the crisis and exploiting the Counterintuitively, most groups or movements that ideological resources at hand, and the amount of social experience a clear failure of prophecy of an important support available in the group.5 expectation, like the Second Coming of Christ or a landslide victory in a hotly contested election for The situation is complex, and there are idiosyncratic 1 “What’s next for trump voters who believe the election was stolen?” The Economic Times (20 January, 2021), https://economictimes.indiatimes. com/news/international/world-news/whats-next-for-trump-voters-who-believe-the-election-was-stolen/printarticle/79744997.cms; Tucker Higgins, “Trump retains overwhelming support from Republicans after deadly U.S. Capitol attack: NBC poll,” CNBC (17 January, 2021), https://www.cnbc. com/2021/01/17/trump-retains-support-from-republicans-after-capitol-attack-nbc-poll.html; Christopher Keating, “Quinnipiac Poll: 77% of Republicans believe there was widespread fraud in the presidential election; 60% overall consider Joe Biden’s victory legitimate,” Hartford Courant (10 December 2020), https://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-q-poll-republicans-believe-fraud-20201210-pcie3uqqvrhyvnt7geohhsyepe-story.html. 2 Justin Vallejo, “Mike Pompeo says there will be a ‘smooth transition to second Trump administration,” The Independent (10 November, 2020), https:// www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/pompeo-trump-run-2024-election-inauguration-b1720645.html 3 Lorne L. Dawson, “When Prophecy Fails and Faith Persists: A Theoretical Overview,” Nova Religio 3, No. 1 (1999): 60-82; Jon R. Stone, Expecting Armageddon: Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy (New York: Routledge, 2000); Lorne L. Dawson, “Prophetic Failure and Millennial Movements,” in Catherine Wessinger, ed., Oxford Handbook of Millennialism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011:150-170. 4 J. Gordon Melton, “Spiritualization and reaffirmation: what really happens when prophecy fails,” American Studies 26, No. 2 (1985): 17-29. 5 Simon Dein and Lorne Dawson, “The Scandal of the Lubavitch Rebbe: Messianism as a Response to Failed Prophecy,” Journal of Contemporary Religion 23, No. 2 (2008): 163-180. 1 Why People Adopt Extreme Beliefs aspects to each case, but the pattern is quite consistent deeply socialised to the cause and they perceive their across situations, and it does not take much imagination participation as providing social benefits (e.g., attention, to see the strong parallels with the remarkable support camaraderie, status, excitement, and a greater sense given to Trump during his beleaguered presidency of purpose), on a daily basis and level that cannot be and after his electoral defeat. For years, Trump and his obtained in their lives otherwise.7 enablers have been preparing his followers, using social media and rallies to drive home the mission to “Make America Great Again” and celebrate the “greatest Presidency in history,” while discounting the views of Why People Adopt Extreme opponents as “fake news” and branding them traitors engaged