Implementing Migration Policy Reform An Outline for Germany Orkan Kösemen ReformCompass Migration IMPLEMENTING MIGRATION POLICY REFORM AN OUTLINE FOR GERMANY ORKAN KÖSEMEN 3 Executive Summary 4 Introduction 6 1. The long path from “guest workers” to a welcoming culture 12 2. Migration policy scenarios: What does the future hold? 15 3. The contents of reform: Making concrete progress in migration 18 4. The strategic core group: Actors driving migration reform in the grand coalition 21 5. Agenda setting: The path through the immigration-debate minefield 25 6. Formulation and decision making: Growing the pie, and distributing it fairly 27 7. Implementation: The correct sequence ensures a smooth start for reform 31 8. Ongoing performance monitoring: Keeping the reform on track 33 9. Summary conclusion: A migration policy for Germany’s future 35 Literature 2 ReformCompass Migration EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Migration policy in Germany today is better than its Implementing a migration architecture of this nature reputation would suggest. It has improved considerably is an ambitious undertaking that must be underpinned over the last 20 years, though it has suffered setbacks by a structurally sound, carefully planned and strategic and contradictions in the process. The improvements approach. It demands not only clearly defined objec- made have been driven less by a commitment to making tives, but also clearly defined paths toward these goals. migration policy “fit for the future” than by the need to This contribution reviews the course of past migration respond to a changing reality. In addition, Germany’s policy changes in Germany, outlines action areas for integration into the European Union also positively af- comprehensive migration reform and identifies the key fected domestic realities of integration, which has sown elements of implementing such a reform. It was origi- the terrain for a more effective migration policy con- nally published in “ReformKompass Migration” (2014, cept. Nonetheless, instead of tackling problems direct- “Migration ReformCompass – Managing Immigration, ly, the migration policy debate in Germany continues Participation and a Culture of Welcome”) and has been to languish under self-critical navel-gazing. As a result, updated for the English translation. migration policy in Germany fails to seize present op- portunities and – even worse – live up to Germany’s self-proclaimed standards as a modern, pluralistic soci- ety at the heart of Europe. A forward-looking migration policy that anticipates challenges rather than a back- ward-looking, ad hoc approach to policymaking is part and parcel of such standards. Indeed, to date, Germany has failed to embed migration policy within a fully co- herent strategic framework. 3 ReformCompass Migration INTRODUCTION On December 17, 2013, the cabinet of Germany’s most The case of Germany’s 2005 immigration reform illus- recent grand coalition government, which consists of trates the difficulty of policymaking, in particular when the Christian Democrats (CDU with the Bavarian CSU) it has a broad substantive reach and involves the voices and the Social Democrats (SPD), was sworn in. The co- of many different actors. It also illustrates the extent to alition enjoys a majority of 504 of 631 seats in the Bun- which the process goes beyond policy formulation to in- destag. Although they are eight votes shy of a simple clude questions of who ultimately has the power to in- majority in the Bundesrat (Federal Council, Germany’s terpret meaning in the public sphere. At the end of the upper house), a deal with the Greens would enable day, policy outcomes often differ from the original in- them to achieve a two-thirds majority there (as of Janu- tent of reform initiators, which ushers in a new period of ary 2015). This is a comfortable position from which to readjustments. For example, the 2000 Citizenship Law shape policy and set a firm course of action in complex (Staatsbürgerschaftsgesetz) continues to be the focus of policy areas. This is important because a common poli- political disputes and immigration legislation. In fact, in cy pursued by the grand coalition in controversial areas spite of a completed “reform,” immigration policy is still could potentially achieve a broader social consensus subject to change today. than could decisions made by a government originat- Each new government constellation represents the ing from one specific political camp. This is particularly promise of a new beginning, especially if it has a con- true for migration policy issues. siderable parliamentary majority, as the current Ger- In the past 20 years, all major decisions with regard man government does. Individual political actors will to migration policy were brokered between the ruling almost certainly differ in their response to the question government and opposition parties, with both sides pre- as to whether migration reform is necessary. As long as senting competing views of society. For the most part, the distribution of institutional and political competenc- negotiations took place within the context of standard es for migration policy (i.e., immigration, integration, parliamentary procedures. Occasionally, however, these inclusion and citizenship) in Germany remains frag- negotiations were also conducted acrimoniously in the mented, and as long as migration policy is repeatedly public sphere. No doubt the most striking example of modified in response to each new political climate, the this was the planned reform of the Immigration Act in mere idea of working on comprehensive reform as part 2001/2002 by the then SPD-Greens coalition govern- of a coordinated migration policy is a sign of progress. ment: The reform failed in the Bundesrat and had to be This contribution seeks to develop this idea further renegotiated afterward with the opposition CDU/CSU by outlining a possible migration reform in the context and Free Democratic (FDP) parties before coming into of Germany’s current political constellation and from force in 2005. This era also marked the apex of political the perspective of the government. Migration reform polarization within Germany on the issue of migration will be approached from three different vantage points: policy. And though political conflicts over the subject of qualitative policy analysis, professional migration ex- migration are still present today, the general tone has pertise and practical policy advice. All three levels are changed. Indeed, migration policy – once a proxy for important in determining the goals, implementation social battles – has increasingly become the focus of methods and public communication involved in pursu- outcome-oriented, albeit slow-paced policymaking. ing reform. The template used in planning this reform 4 ReformCompass Migration is the “ReformCompass – The Strategy Instrument,” a Section 2 (Migration policy scenarios: What does the tool for understanding reform processes created by the future hold?) sheds light on the domestic actors and Bertelsmann Stiftung. The ReformCompass allows pol- factors influencing migration reform and potential tra- icymakers to plan policymaking processes in advance jectories in migration policy. This section presents the and/or analyze their impact after the fact. The reform most probable development scenario as well as best and process is divided into five fields of action: strategic core worst case scenarios resulting from the logic of compre- group, agenda setting, formulating and decision mak- hensive migration policy. The best case then serves as ing, implementation and ongoing impact evaluation. the reform objective targeted in this outline. Further information on each facet of this instrument Section 3 (The contents of reform: Making concrete can be found at www.ReformCompass.de. progress in migration) illustrates the necessary ele- Reform projects as complicated as migration policy ments involved in formulating a successful reform ob- are generally difficult to control. This has in large part jective: It must be concrete, verifiable and articulated to do with the presence of conditions that reform actors in terms of individual steps. These elements provide cannot influence directly. As mentioned above, the cur- the basis in formulating the reform outline’s ultimate rent majorities are a good starting point for significant goal, which is to increase the number of skilled workers migration reform. Nevertheless, successfully imple- coming to Germany from third countries in a sustaina- menting migration reform is a very difficult task. Every ble manner over the long term. This will be followed by individual reform must be underpinned by a substan- suggestions with regard to the content of a well-thought- tive logic that sets goals and maps out the best route through migration reform in which each individual step to achieving those goals. However, at every stage in the involves progress toward the reform’s objective. process, individual decision-makers can influence the Sections 4 to 8 move step-by-step through a potential nature of individual reform steps and their outcomes. migration reform in keeping with the ReformCompass. This is true regardless of whether we’re dealing with Each section examines a different element, including the logic of administrative functions, financing, political the composition of the reform steering group, the agen- parties or federalism. None of this can be determined da framing the reform, the internal clearance and re- in advance, nor can it be taken fully into