Menberu Teshome, AJAR, 2017; 2:6 Research Article AJAR (2017), 2:6 American Journal of Agricultural Research (ISSN:2475-2002) Agricultural Susceptibility to Climate Change in Varied Ecological areas of Northwest Ethiopia Menberu Teshome Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Debre Tabor University, Ethiopia, Po Box 272 ABSTRACT Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate change-in- *Correspondence to Author: duced hazards due to the fact that it affects the two most import- Menberu Teshome, PhD ant direct agricultural production inputs, such as precipitation Department of Geography and En- and temperature. Therefore, this study analyzed the susceptibil- vironmental Studies, Debre Tabor ity of agriculture to climate change in three purposively selected University, Ethiopia, Po Box 272, agro-ecological area of Northwest Ethiopia. The quantitative cli- e-mail, menberuteshome @gmail. mate data were obtained from Global Weather Data for Soil and com/ menberuteshome@ dtu.edu. Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) from 1979 to 2010 while data et on crop production and perception of households towards crop yield trend were collected using structured questionnaire com- plemented with informants’ interview and field observation. Ana- lytical techniques such as simple regressions (SR), standardized How to cite this article: precipitation index (SPI), one-way-analysis of variance (ANOVA), Menberu Teshome. Agricultural crop diversification index (CDI) and index of trend of yield (ITY) Susceptibility to Climate Change in supported with descriptive statistics were used to analyze the Varied Ecological areas of North- data. The meteorology data reveal that climate is characterized west Ethiopia. American Journal of by increasing annual temperature trend, greater inter-seasonal Agricultural Research, 2017,2:6. variation of rainfall, and alteration of wet and dry years in a peri- odic pattern over the past 32 years (1979 – 2010). Rainfall also showed decreasing tendency at a statistically non-significant trend. Huge unproductive land was reported in the fragile low- land (41 %) distantly followed by Dabat (21.32 %). These eco- logical contexts have worsened the susceptibility of agriculture eSciPub LLC, Houston, TX USA. to climate change-induced risks. The trend of crop yield stability Website: http://escipub.com/ index was found to be high in the fragile lowland against the offi- cial statistics. In fact, places located nearer to the sources of AJAR: http://escipub.com/american-journal-of-agricultural-research/ 0001 Menberu Teshome, AJAR, 2017; 2:6 climatic risks continue to suffer from pervasive integrated land management practices that poverty. In conclusion, ecologically designed enable to regulate the local climate; agricultural systems that can provide a buffer sequestrating carbon dioxide and reducing against extreme events need to be the primary climatic risks (drought and flood). In this concerns of the regional government to regard, research should be done to find heat- minimize climate change-induced risks thereby tolerant seeds and to resolve the contradictory increasing resiliency of rural households. Local reports of official yield statistics and rural leaders should enforce green laws through households’ observations on crop yield trend. Key words: Agriculture, ecology, climate change, crop diversification, Northwest Ethiopia, susceptibility, trend of yield 1. Introduction Therefore, product (crop) diversification is an Agriculture is the main source of livelihood, important method to reduce both natural and employment, and foreign exchange earnings in economic uncertainties. The concept of crop Ethiopia. It supports the livelihood of about 90% diversification (CD) is a scientific devise to of the poor and generates 90% of the national study the existing spatial relationship of crops in export-trade and greater than 40% of the Gross association with other geographical contexts Domestic Product (Slingo et al., 2005; and land use dynamics (Vaidyanathan, 1992). Temesgen, 2010). However, the agricultural Crop diversification is an important strategy to sector in Ethiopia is confronted with diverse capitalize on the use of land, water and other environmental problems. Change and variability resources for the overall advancement of in rainfall patterns are supremely important agriculture in the country through providing the determinant contexts of livelihoods construction farmers viable options to grow various crops on in northern Ethiopia. They determine primary their farmlands (Rasul & Thapa, 2003; Meena production from year to year, both in enhancing and O'Keef, 2007). A change in cropping agricultural productivity and in conserving pattern indicates a change in the proportion of natural resources. This is very important to farmland areas under different crops. However, keep on sustainable agricultural production the cropping pattern depends mostly up on trend which is an important measure of overall agro-climatic, technical and institutional factors contexts in maintaining the livelihood systems (Vaidyanathan, 1992). of the rural communities reside in different Farmers practiced agricultural diversification agro-ecological areas. The concept of with a view to avoid risks and uncertainties of agricultural susceptibility has emerged in climatic and biological vagaries. Moreover, it response to concerns about the adverse reduces the dreadful outcomes of the current environmental and economic impacts of crop specialization and monoculture by traditional agricultural systems in the face of enhancing better resource use, nutrient climate variability and change (Rasul & Thapa, recycling, reduction of risks and restock of soil 2003). fertility conditions. In fact, CD is very important Ethiopian agriculture is mainly rain-fed in nature to boost nitrogen in the soil, and to offer a and exposed to uncontrollable natural hazards. reasonable quantity of the costly inputs like AJAR: http://escipub.com/american-journal-of-agricultural-research/ 0002 Menberu Teshome, AJAR, 2017; 2:6 fertilizers, insecticides, pesticides and irrigation Finance and Economic Development/MoFED, to the crops (Hussain, 2009). The over result of 2007). A recent vulnerability mapping in Africa CD is to endow with better economic viability grouped Ethiopia in the most sensitive with a shift from low-value to high-value countries to ecological change as it is heavily agricultural products and value-added dependence upon rain-fed agriculture (Girma manufactured goods suited to ecological and Fekadu, 2010). The long-term change in sustainability. precipitation and temperature patterns is most The northern Ethiopia is located in the fragile likely to increase the frequency of droughts and landscape where rain-fed agriculture is the floods (World Bank, 2010). Hence, climate main source of livelihood for almost all the rural change will highly upset the productivity of rural population and hence raising a serious concern households’ farmlands located in the fragile about the susceptibility of agriculture in the face environments and will continue to suffer more in of deterioration of land quality, declining yield, the future (World Bank, 2010). and increasing population. Devoid of vegetation The magnitude of climate change is increasing cover and the resultant severe soil erosion in from time to time and worsening farmland the hilly areas and huge depositions in the low- degradations in different agro-ecological areas lying areas are causes for agricultural of northwest Ethiopia. Both increasing productivity to go down from time to time. The temperature and deficit in precipitation are recent climate change-induced weather risks currently observed in there. Droughts, flood and add a new impact on smallholder agriculture via other extreme events are frequently occurring accelerated removal of topsoil and moisture having severe effects on farmlands, soil fertility from the farmlands. Certainly, the accelerated and overall crop yield. ecological degradation and climate change- Scholars have done research to measure the induced floods, erratic rainfall, snowfalls, crop impacts of climate change on agriculture in pests and disease, livestock disease, malaria developing nations, including Africa and and other human diseases, and small Ethiopia (Temesgen 2006, 2010; Madison, farmlands among other factors have direct 2006; Molla, 2008). For example, the study in effects on poor peoples’ crop yield and food pastoralist area conducted by Prolinnova and security in the northern Ethiopia (World Vision Pastoralist Forum Ethiopia (PFE) found out Ethiopia, 2007; Menberu, 2015, 2016). several adaptation options to reduce farmers Traditional mixed cropping, crop rotation, and vulnerability to climate change, regarding crop intercropping also gradually disappear. This production; a research conducted in the Blue has led to mono-cropping and dependency on Nile Basin (Ethiopia) by Temesgen et al. external inputs such as inorganic fertilizers, (2008); analysis of rainfall variability and crop herbicides and pesticides. The increased uses production in Amhara Region by Woldeamlak of these inorganic inputs have led to (2009), to mention a few. However, most of contamination of soils, water bodies and the these studies are aggregated at national or spread of diseases, which have adversely State levels. So, all may not reflect local affected aquatic life, livestock and people contexts of different agro-ecological area (Rasul and Thapa, 2003). because site-specific issues require site-