Cheshire West and Chester Integrated Transport Strategy: Sum m ary ofBaseline Report Cheshire West and Chester Council June 2009 QM Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks Final Draft Date 30/5/09 Prepared by J Marsh Signature Checked by R Desouza Signature Authorised by R Elliott Signature Project number 11550051 File reference 090630 WSP Development and Transportation The Victoria 150-182 The Quays Salford Manchester M50 3SP Tel: +44 (0)161 886 2400 Fax: +44 (0)161 886 2401 http://www.wspgroup.com WSP UK Limited | Registered Address WSP House, 70 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1AF, UK | Reg No. 01383511 England | WSP Group plc | Offices worldwide Contents 1 Introduction 1 � 2 Dem ographic Characteristics and TravelPatterns 2 � 3 The Econom y and the Environm ent 7 � 4 The Transport Netw ork 10 � 1 Introduction 1.1 OVERVIEW 1.1.1 WSP, in association with Lambert Smith Hampton, has been appointed by the new Cheshire West and Chester authority to provide consultancy support in undertaking an Integrated Transport Study. The key requirement of this study is to ensure that a comprehensive evidence base is assembled that will underpin the development of the authority’s Local Development Framework (LDF), and subsequently its Local Transport Plan (LTP). The first phase of this work has reviewed the key development proposals in the authority’s area, compiled data that describes the current and future transport demands and identified gaps in the availability of data that need to be filled. This was completed in June 2009. This report summarises that body of data which will be analysed and turned into intelligence from which problems and issues are identified and prioritised. 1.1.2 The new Cheshire West and Chester authority’s area is shown in its regional geographical context in figure 1 below. FIGURE 1: CHESHIRE WEST AND CHESTER IN CONTEXT 1 2 Demographic Characteristics and Travel Patterns 2.1 AREA APPRECIATION 2.1.1 Cheshire West & Chester currently has a population of approximately 330,000 (2009 estimate). The population of the area is forecast to rise from about 328,000 in 2006 to around 346,000 by 2026. This is an increase of 18,000, averaging at growth of 1,000 people each year. 2.1.2 The age profile of Cheshire West & Chester’s population is forecast to change broadly in line with national trends. In particular: Eastgate, Chester City Centre ¢ The number of people aged 65 to 84 will increase by just over 40% between 2006 and 2026, from 50,000 to 71,000; ¢ The number of people aged 85 or older will nearly double between 2006 and 2026, from 7,000 to 13,000; ¢ The number of residents aged 16 to 64 (working age) will fall slightly, by around 3%, between 2006 and 2026; and ¢ There will be around 5% fewer children under the age of 16 living in Cheshire West and Chester by 2026 than there were in 2006. FIGURE 2: POPULATION CHANGE 350 340 330 320 310 Population (Thousands) (Thousands) Population 300 290 5 7 1 3 3 5 9 1 5 97 99 03 05 11 17 98 98 99 99 9 9 0 0 0 01 01 0 01 02 02 1983 1 1 1989 1 1 1995 1 1 2001 2 2 2007 2009 2 2 2 2 2 2 2023 2 Year TABLE 1: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (IN THOUSANDS) 16 64 65+ 0 15 Age Age Age Year Group Group Group 2006 61.2 210.1 56.2 2009 59.3 211.7 59 2011 58.6 211.3 61.6 2016 57.3 207.6 70.2 2021 57.5 205.8 76.3 2026 57.5 204.6 83.7 2 2.1.3 The Authority covers an area of some 916 square kilometres and contains the major settlements of Chester; Ellesmere Port and Neston to the west; Frodsham to the north; and Northwich and Winsford to the east. A large part of the south and west of the authority’s area is rural and the rural population (from DEFRA’s rural statistics) is some 85,760 or 26% of the total. The rural economy is still serviced from smaller settlements, but there is also a substantial long-distance commuter population resident in the countryside some of which looks to the larger settlements or across the authority’s borders for employment and access to services. 2.2 CROSS BOUNDARY CONNECTIONS 2.2.1 The new authority has strong connections with its surrounding authorities. The north western edge of the authority borders Merseyside, bringing close contacts with Wirral MBC and Merseytravel, the Integrated Transport Authority for Merseyside . There are also important links with Halton and Warrington. Elsewhere the authority adjoins the more rural areas of the newly formed East Cheshire authority as well as part of Shropshire. There are important links with Flintshire and Wrexham in North Wales. A specific issue for Chester is that the urban area of the city extends into Wales. 2.2.2 While there is no common boundary with Greater Manchester, there are strong employment and commercial connections with the conurbation. The Cheshire West Area has close connections with a 2.3 TRAVEL TO WORK DATA – CAR OWNERSHIP number of neighbouring areas, including Merseyside 2.3.1 Table 2 below presents figures for car ownership in Cheshire West & Chester and compares this data with data for the North West and Great Britain. The most recent data is used which for Cheshire West and Chester is taken from the 2008 Community Survey and for the region and Great Britain is derived from national transport statistics published by The census results indicate a significantly higher level of car ownership in Cheshire West and Chester than the regional and national averages. TABLE 2: CAR OWNERSHIP PER HOUSEHOLD No of cars per CW & C North West GB household 1 40% 43% 44% 2 38% 31% (2+ cars) 32% (2+ cars) 3 9% 4+ 3% 0 10% 27% 24% Sources: CW&C – 2008 Community Survey National and Regional – (2006 data) Transport Statistics GB 2008 Department for Transport 2.3.2 The Community Survey data showed that between 2005 and 2008 there was a continuing increase in the number of households with two or more cars and a slight reduction in one car households as a result. 2 2.4 MODAL SPLIT FOR TRAVEL TO WORK 2.4.1 Cheshire West & Chester’s travel to work patters have been analysed using data drawn from the 2001 census. Analysis of the modal split shows that the majority of journeys to work are made by residents driving themselves, at 71 %. This exceeds both the North West Regional and English National averages of 64 % and 60 % respectively. Public transport (rail and bus/ coach) usage falls below the Regional (12 %) and National (16 %) average. Travel by foot and cycle account for 10 % and 3 % of journeys to work respectively. The figure for walking falls just below the Regional and National average of 11 %, with the figure for cycling equalling the National average and exceeding the North West Regional average of 2%. 2.4.2 In summary, the commuter patterns of Cheshire West and Chester are significantly more car dependent that those of the region or nation as a whole. More people travel by car, with correspondingly fewer people travelling by public transport, in comparison with the regional and national averages. The figures for walking and cycling are relatively similar to the regional and national figures. 2.4.3 These results are illustrated in Figure 3 below. FIGURE 3: RESIDENTS’TRAVEL TO WORK M ODE SHARES: A COMPARISON OF CHESHIRE WEST AND CHESTER WITH NORTH WEST AND NATIONAL AVERAGES 3 2.4.4 Some differences are apparent between travel characteristics of urban and rural areas, with the two extremes being represented by the urban areas of Chester and the “Rural West’ of the authority’s area. 2.4.5 In Chester only 60% of residents drive to work whereas the equivalent figure for the ‘Rural West’ area is 79%. The respective proportions for journeys to work by other modes include vary from 11% in Chester to 4% in the rural west for public transport,15% to 7% for walking and 5% to 2% for cycling. 2.5 COM M UTING PATTERNS 2.5.1 Analysis of journey to work patterns within authority’s area and between Cheshire West and Chester and the rest of the country has been undertaken. Particular observations from this analysis are: ¢ In total there were 50,341 journeys to work into CW &C in 2001 and 52,528 journeys out of the authority’s area. This means that there was a net export of 2,187 work-based Chester station provides trips; connectivity to a wide range of ¢ destinations. However, rail use There were 100,377 internal trips. This is approximately double the number of trips is generally relatively low in the out of the region, showing that the majority of people who live in Cheshire West and area Chester also work there. This indicates that overall, Cheshire West and Chester is not a significant exporter of labour; ¢ When looking at the individual Travel Areas, some clear patterns emerge. Only eight of the Travel Areas are responsible for over 1,000 inbound journeys (East Cheshire, Flintshire, Greater Manchester, Halton, Liverpool, Warrington, Wirral and Wrexham). The same eight Travel Areas also have highest number of outbound trips to them from Cheshire West and Chester, showing a high level of movement in both directions between Cheshire West and Chester and these Travel Areas.