Dissertation Master in International Business Management Taxation policies of Croatia: Proposals for implementation of preferential tax regimes on islands Damir Budanec Leiria, December 2020 This page was intentionally left blank Dissertation Master in International Business Management Taxation policies of Croatia: Proposals for implementation of preferential tax regimes on islands Damir Budanec Dissertation developed under the supervision of Professor Cristina Sá, professor at the School of Technology and Management of the Polytechnic Institute of Leiria Leiria, December 2020 This page was intentionally left blank ii Resumo (in Portuguese) O que causa o crescimento e o desenvolvimento de uma ilha croata? Os regimes fiscais preferenciais poderiam ser uma das soluções para os desafios das ilhas croatas sem levar à erosão da base e à transferência de lucros? O objetivo principal deste artigo foi analisar os fatores que influenciam o crescimento das ilhas croatas e sugerir possíveis soluções para aumentar esse crescimento dentro do âmbito internacional. O artigo utilizou uma revisão de literatura para identificar os fatores que influenciam o crescimento de uma ilha croata. Uma análise de regressão multivariada de fatores específicos foi utilizada para desenvolver um modelo parsimonioso. Os resultados indicaram que certos fatores fiscais, políticos e demográficos examinados tiveram um efeito significativo sobre o PIB de uma ilha croata, com certas limitações. As soluções possíveis para aumentar o crescimento dentro destes factores utilizando regimes fiscais preferenciais incluíam a descentralização, incentivos ao crescimento populacional e alterações na regulamentação fiscal Palavras-chave: Projeto BEPS, regimes fiscais preferenciais, Ilhas Croatas iii This page was intentionally left blank iv Abstract What causes growth and development of a Croatian island? Could preferential tax regimes be one of the solutions to the challenges of Croatian islands without leading to base erosion and profit shifting? The primary goal of this thesis was to analyse the factors that influence the growth of Croatian islands and suggest possible solutions for increasing that growth within the international scope. The literature review performed identifies the several factors influencing the growth of a Country or an Island. A multivariate regression analysis of specific factors was used to develop a parsimonious model. The results show that tax, political, demographic factors affected the GDP of a Croatian island, with certain limitations. The possible solutions for increasing growth within these factors using preferential tax regimes included decentralisation, incentives for population growth, and changes in fiscal regulations. Keywords: BEPS Project, preferential tax regimes, Croatian Islands v This page was intentionally left blank vi List of figures Figure 1 – Nexus Ratio .............................................................................................. 23 Figure 2 - Croatian counties ....................................................................................... 33 Figure 3 - Assisted areas in Croatia by the development index ................................. 34 Figure 4 - GDP growth of Croatia from 1996 to 2008 ............................................... 38 Figure 5 - GDP growth of Croatia from 2009 to 2018 ............................................... 39 Figure 6 - Deaths vs live births in Croatia, 2009 − 2018 ........................................... 43 Figure 7 - Population of Croatia by sex and age, 2019 estimate................................ 44 Figure 8 - Net migration of Croatian population 2008-2017 ..................................... 44 Figure 9 - Persons in paid employment in legal entities by activities, 2019 .............. 45 Figure 10 - Tax revenues by category as a percentage of GDP, 2019 ....................... 51 Figure 11 - Croatian coastline with selected islands .................................................. 52 Figure 12 - Population pyramid of Croatian islands, 2001-2011 ............................... 53 Figure 13 - Normal Q-Q plot of Standardized residuals ........................................... 71 Figure 14 - Standardized predicted values vs standardized residual values. ............. 72 Figure 15 - War influence vs GDP ............................................................................. 94 Figure 16 - Distance from administration vs GDP .................................................... 94 Figure 17 - Employment in tourism vs GDP ............................................................. 94 Figure 18 - Population change vs GDP ...................................................................... 95 Figure 19 - City surtax vs GDP .................................................................................. 95 Figure 20 - Island size vs GDP .................................................................................. 95 vii This page was intentionally left blank viii List of tables Table 1 - Preferential tax regimes .............................................................................. 19 Table 2 - Actions of the BEPS project by type .......................................................... 22 Table 3 - IP preferential regimes ................................................................................ 24 Table 4 - Non-IP preferential regimes ....................................................................... 25 Table 5 – 10 additional factors for assessing preferential regimes ............................ 27 Table 6 - Croatian Tax System summary ................................................................... 48 Table 7 - Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP in Croatia, 2019 ............................... 50 Table 8 - Island population with their respective counties ........................................ 54 Table 9 - Undeveloped islands in Croatia .................................................................. 56 Table 10 - Data and sources ....................................................................................... 57 Table 11 - Island dataset ............................................................................................ 59 Table 12 - Variables of growth .................................................................................. 62 Table 13 – Descriptive statistics of the variables used .............................................. 63 Table 14 - Correlation of ordinal variable X5 with Y ................................................ 64 Table 15 - Correlation of nominal variables .............................................................. 65 Table 16 - Variables entered and removed – Backward approach ............................. 66 Table 17 - Model Summary – Backward approach ................................................... 67 Table 18 – Correlation of Removed Variables .......................................................... 68 Table 19- ANOVA and the Parsimonious Model ...................................................... 69 Table 20 - Model Coefficients - parsimonious model ............................................... 69 Table 21 - One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test .................................................. 70 Table 22 - Potentially harmful regimes ...................................................................... 92 Table 23 - Model Summary – Stepwise/Forward approach ....................................... 93 ix This page was intentionally left blank x List of acronyms ANOVA – Analysis of a variance BEPS - Base erosion and profit shifting CIT – Corporate income tax DZS – Državni Zavod za Statistiku (Croatian Statistics Bureau) EC - European Commission EDP - Excessive deficit procedure EU - European Union EUR – Euro (currency) FHTP - Forum on Harmful Tax Practice GDP – Gross domestic product HOP - Hrvatski Otočni Proizvod (Croatian Island Product) HRK – Croatian kuna (currency) IP - Intellectual property LGU – Local self-government unit NGO – Non-governmental organisation OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development R&D - Research and development SEZ - Special Economic Zone SME – Small and medium-sized enterprise UK – United Kingdom UN – United Nations US – United States VAT - Value-added tax xi This page was intentionally left blank xii Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Theme Framework .................................................................................................................. 3 1.2. Work organization ................................................................................................................... 4 2. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF A REGION 5 2.1. Economic growth approach .................................................................................................... 5 2.2. Determinants of economic growth.......................................................................................... 8 Historical factors .............................................................................................................. 8 Political Factors.............................................................................................................. 10 Economy and Industry factors ....................................................................................... 12 Demographic factors ...................................................................................................... 13 Tax systems ...................................................................................................................