BRITISH COLUMBIA MINISTRY OF FORESTS, LANDS AND NATURAL RESOURCE OPERATIONS 100 Mile House Timber Supply Area Rationale for Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) Determination Effective November 7, 2013 Diane Nicholls, RPF Deputy Chief Forester AAC Rationale for 100 Mile House TSA, November 2013 Table of Contents Objective of this document ............................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgement ............................................................................................................................ 1 Statutory framework ......................................................................................................................... 1 Description of the 100 Mile House TSA .......................................................................................... 1 History of the AAC .......................................................................................................................... 2 New AAC determination .................................................................................................................. 3 Information sources used in the AAC determination ....................................................................... 3 Role and limitations of the technical information used .................................................................... 5 Guiding principles for AAC determinations .................................................................................... 6 The role of the base case .................................................................................................................. 8 Base case for the 100 Mile House TSA ............................................................................................ 9 Consideration of factors as required by Section 8 (8) of the Forest Act ........................................ 10 Land base contributing to timber harvesting .............................................................................. 12 - general comments .............................................................................................................................. 12 - forest inventory .................................................................................................................................. 12 - area based tenures .............................................................................................................................. 13 - existing and future roads, trails and landings ..................................................................................... 13 - non-commercial cover ....................................................................................................................... 13 - old growth management areas ........................................................................................................... 14 - riparian areas ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Expected rate of growth .............................................................................................................. 15 - natural stand yields ............................................................................................................................ 15 - site productivity ................................................................................................................................. 16 Expected time to re-established the forest following denudation ............................................... 16 -stand regeneration ............................................................................................................................... 16 - not sufficiently restocked ................................................................................................................... 17 Silvicultural treatments ............................................................................................................... 17 - silvicultural systems ........................................................................................................................... 17 Utilization ................................................................................................................................... 18 - log grade adjustments ........................................................................................................................ 18 - utilization standards ........................................................................................................................... 19 Integrated resource management ................................................................................................ 19 - general comments .............................................................................................................................. 19 - cultural heritage resources ................................................................................................................. 20 - moose ................................................................................................................................................. 21 Other information ....................................................................................................................... 21 - First Nations considerations ............................................................................................................... 21 - harvest performance ........................................................................................................................... 24 - AAC partition .................................................................................................................................... 24 Alternative rates of harvesting .................................................................................................... 25 - alternative harvest forecasts ............................................................................................................... 25 Economic and social objectives .................................................................................................. 27 - Minister’s letters ................................................................................................................................ 27 - employment and community dependence .......................................................................................... 27 Abnormal infestations, devastations and salvage programs ....................................................... 28 - mountain pine beetle infestation ........................................................................................................ 28 - other forest health issues .................................................................................................................... 29 - non-recoverable losses ....................................................................................................................... 29 - climate change ................................................................................................................................... 30 - mid-term timber supply ..................................................................................................................... 30 Marginally economic forest types ............................................................................................... 31 Reasons for Decision ...................................................................................................................... 32 Page i AAC Rationale for 100 Mile House TSA, November 2013 Determination ................................................................................................................................. 36 Implementation ............................................................................................................................... 36 Appendix 1: Section 8 of the Forest Act ........................................................................................ 38 Appendix 2: Section 4 of the Ministry of Forests and Range Act .................................................. 41 Appendix 3: Minister’s letter of July 4, 2006 ................................................................................. 42 Appendix 4: Minister’s letter of October 27, 2010 ........................................................................ 44 List of Tables Table 1. Apportionment of the AAC .............................................................................................3 Table 2. List of factors accepted as modelled .............................................................................11 Page ii AAC Rationale for 100 Mile House TSA, November 2013 Objective of this document This document provides an accounting of the factors I have considered and the rationale I have employed in making my determination, under Section 8 of the Forest Act, of the allowable annual cut (AAC) for the 100 Mile House Timber Supply Area (TSA). This document also identifies where new or better information is needed for incorporation in future determinations. Acknowledgement For preparation of the information I have considered in this determination, I am indebted to staff of the BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations (FLNR) in the 100 Mile House Natural Resource District, the Cariboo Region, and the Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch (FAIB). I am also grateful to the local residents,