OPPORTUNITY AREA RESIDENTIAL MARKET DEMAND 2015 TO 2035 Prepared for City of Brooklyn Center June 2013 OPPORTUNITY AREA RESIDENTIAL MARKET DEMAND 2015 TO 2035 Prepared for City of Brooklyn Center Prepared by McComb Group, Ltd. June 2013 © Copyright 2013 McComb Group, Ltd. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Subject Page INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................v Report Purpose ......................................................................................................... vi I BROOKLYN CENTER OPPORTUNITY AREA ............................................. 1-1 Greater Brookdale ................................................................................................... 1-1 Opportunity Area .................................................................................................... 1-2 Regional Access ...................................................................................................... 1-5 Traffic Counts ......................................................................................................... 1-6 II BROOKLYN CENTER COMPETITIVE APARTMENTS ............................. 2-1 Large General Occupancy Apartments ................................................................... 2-1 Apartment Managers/Leasing Agents Interviews ................................................... 2-4 Low and Moderate Income Apartments ................................................................. 2-9 Senior Apartments .................................................................................................. 2-9 Summary ................................................................................................................ 2-12 III CONTEMPORARY APARTMENT COMMUNITIES .................................... 3-1 Minneapolis............................................................................................................. 3-1 St. Louis Park .......................................................................................................... 3-5 Summary ................................................................................................................. 3-8 IV RESIDENTIAL DRAW AREA ........................................................................... 4-1 Population and Households..................................................................................... 4-2 Household Income .................................................................................................. 4-4 Demographic Characteristics .................................................................................. 4-6 Housing Tenure ...................................................................................................... 4-11 Employment ........................................................................................................... 4-11 V BROOKLYN CENTER RESIDENTIAL GROWTH TRENDS ...................... 5-1 Population and Households..................................................................................... 5-1 Residential Building Permit Trends ........................................................................ 5-4 Multi-Family Trends ............................................................................................... 5-6 Minneapolis Building Permits ................................................................................ 5-7 Household Formation.............................................................................................. 5-8 Stabilized Residential Demand ............................................................................... 5-9 Brooklyn Center Residential Demand ................................................................... 5-10 VI FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................... 6-1 Rental Market Segments ......................................................................................... 6-2 General Occupancy Apartments ............................................................................. 6-4 Senior Housing Demand ......................................................................................... 6-7 Recommendations ................................................................................................... 6-9 APPENDIX A – Demographic Characteristics i LIST OF TABLES Table Subject Page 1-1 Brooklyn Center Opportunity Area ........................................................................ 1-3 1-2 Brooklyn Center Traffic Counts ............................................................................. 1-6 2-1 Brooklyn Center Market Rate Apartment Communities: Buildings with More Than 50 Units .................................................................................................... 2-2 2-2 Brooklyn Center Market Rate Apartment Communities: Unit Sizes as of 3/29/13 .............................................................................................................. 2-2 2-3 Brooklyn Center Market Rate Apartment Communities: Competitive Rental Rates as of 3/29/13 ............................................................................................ 2-3 2-4 Brooklyn Center Market Rate Apartment Communities: Unit Features ................ 2-5 2-5 Brooklyn Center Market Rate Apartment Communities: Building Amenities ....... 2-7 2-6 Brooklyn Center Low and Moderate Income Apartment Communities: Year Built and Number of Units ....................................................................... 2-9 2-7 Brooklyn Center Senior Apartment Communities: Year Built and Number of Units .................................................................................................................. 2-9 2-8 Brooklyn Center Senior Apartment Communities: Unit Sizes as of 3/29/13 ........ 2-10 2-9 Brooklyn Center Senior Apartment Communities: Rental Rates as of 3/29/13 .... 2-10 2-10 Brooklyn Center Senior Apartment Communities: Unit Features ......................... 2-11 2-11 Brooklyn Center Senior Apartment Communities: Building Amenities ............... 2-12 3-1 Market Rate Comparable Unit Size: Minneapolis .................................................. 3-2 3-2 Market Rate Comparable Rental Rates: Minneapolis ............................................. 3-2 3-3 Minneapolis Comparable Apartment Communities: Unit Features ........................ 3-3 3-4 Minneapolis Comparable Apartment Communities: Building Amenities .............. 3-4 3-5 Market Rate Comparable Unit Size: St. Louis Park ............................................... 3-6 3-6 Market Rate Comparable Rental Rates: St. Louis Park .......................................... 3-6 3-7 St. Louis Park Comparable Apartment Communities: Unit Features ..................... 3-7 3-8 St. Louis Park Comparable Apartment Communities: Building Amenities ........... 3-8 4-1 City of Brooklyn Center, Opportunity Area Draw Area, and Tier One Communities: Population and Households 1990 and 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated ........................................................................................... 4-3 4-2 City of Brooklyn Center, Opportunity Area Draw Area, and Tier One Communities: Average and Median Household Incomes 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated .................................................................................. 4-5 4-3 City of Brooklyn Center, Opportunity Area Draw Area, and Tier One Communities: Household Income Distribution 2000 Census; 2011 and 2016 Estimated .................................................................................................. 4-6 4-4 City of Brooklyn Center Demographic and Income Snapshot ............................... 4-7 ii LIST OF TABLES (continued) Table Subject Page 4-5 Opportunity Area Draw Area Demographic and Income Snapshot ....................... 4-8 4-6 Tier One Cities I-94 Growth Corridor Demographic and Income Snapshot .......... 4-9 4-7 Seven-County Metropolitan Area Demographic and Income Snapshot ................ 4-10 4-8 City of Brooklyn Center, Opportunity Area Draw Area, and Tier One Communities: Owner- and Renter-Occupied Households ............................... 4-11 4-9 Employment: Brooklyn Center, MN; 2002 to 2010 .............................................. 4-12 5-1 Brooklyn Center Population and Households: Census 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010; and 2011 Estimated ....................................................... 5-1 5-2 Brooklyn Center Increase in Households and Multi-Family Units by Decade: 1960 to 2009 ....................................................................................... 5-2 5-3 Metro Area, I-94 Growth Corridor, Tier One, and Tier Two Change in Number of Households; 1960 to 2010 .............................................................. 5-3 5-4 Metro Area, I-94 Growth Corridor, Tier One, and Tier Two Household Market Share; 1960 to 2010 .............................................................................. 5-4 5-5 I-94 Growth Corridor and Brooklyn Center Residential Building Permits; 1991 to 2012 ..................................................................................................... 5-5 5-6 Metro Area Building Unit Permits; 1991 to 2012 .................................................. 5-6 5-7 Minneapolis Building Unit Permits; 1991 to 2012 ................................................. 5-8 5-8 Preliminary Stabilized Residential Growth Metro Area – Low ............................. 5-13 5-9 Preliminary Stabilized Residential