2017 Marine Cargo Forecast and Rail Capacity Analysis Final Report August 2017 Prepared for Washington Public Ports Association and Freight Mobility Strategic Investment Board Prepared by BST Associates PO Box 2224 Anacortes, WA 98221-8106 with MainLine Management, Inc. The Beckett Group IHS Markit Final Report Table of Contents Table of Contents Executive Summary................................................................................................................... I Overview............................................................................................................................... I Economic opportunities on the Pacific Rim............................................................................ I Trade opportunities in the Evergreen State............................................................................II Transportation: moving goods to market over road, rail and water .......................................III Road................................................................................................................................III Rail..................................................................................................................................III Waterways.......................................................................................................................III Challenges on the horizon................................................................................................... IV Chapter 1 Overview...................................................................................................................1 Purpose..................................................................................................................................1 Methodology .........................................................................................................................1 Organization..........................................................................................................................2 Acronyms and Abbreviations.................................................................................................3 Chapter 2 International Macroeconomic Overview ....................................................................7 Introduction...........................................................................................................................7 Key Observations ..................................................................................................................7 Trading Regions ....................................................................................................................7 International Trading Partner Regions................................................................................7 World Economic Trends ......................................................................................................11 Regional Growth .................................................................................................................13 China ...............................................................................................................................13 Other Northeast Asia........................................................................................................15 Southeast Asia .................................................................................................................17 Indian Sub-Continent.......................................................................................................19 Oceania............................................................................................................................21 Canada.............................................................................................................................22 Latin America/Caribbean.................................................................................................23 Middle East......................................................................................................................25 Europe.............................................................................................................................27 Africa ..............................................................................................................................29 Summary of International Trends.....................................................................................30 Alaska and Hawaii...............................................................................................................32 Alaska..............................................................................................................................32 Hawaii .............................................................................................................................34 Chapter 3 Marine Cargo Forecast ............................................................................................37 Introduction.........................................................................................................................37 August 31, 2017 Washington Marine Cargo Forecasts 2017 Page i BST Associates Final Report Table of Contents Key Observations ................................................................................................................37 Methodology.......................................................................................................................38 Containers ...........................................................................................................................39 Container Trends and Forecast.........................................................................................39 Key Issues for Container Traffic......................................................................................41 Breakbulk/Neobulk Cargo ...................................................................................................45 Breakbulk Exports...........................................................................................................45 Breakbulk Imports...........................................................................................................45 Domestic Coastwise Traffic.............................................................................................46 Summary.........................................................................................................................47 Logs....................................................................................................................................48 Log Exports.....................................................................................................................48 Log Imports.....................................................................................................................48 Domestic Coastwise Traffic.............................................................................................49 Summary.........................................................................................................................49 Automobiles ....................................................................................................................51 Summary of Breakbulk and Neobulk Cargoes by Region.................................................54 Grain and Oilseeds ..............................................................................................................56 Overview.........................................................................................................................56 Forecast...........................................................................................................................58 Regional Forecast............................................................................................................58 Dry Bulk Cargoes (Excluding Grain)...................................................................................60 Overview.........................................................................................................................60 Imports............................................................................................................................60 Exports............................................................................................................................60 Regional Forecast............................................................................................................61 Liquid Bulks........................................................................................................................64 Crude Oil.........................................................................................................................64 Other Liquid Bulks..........................................................................................................69 Summary of Liquid Bulks................................................................................................70 Regional Forecast............................................................................................................70 Chapter 4 Inland Navigation System .......................................................................................73 Introduction.........................................................................................................................73 Key Findings.......................................................................................................................73