11:00 P.M. HK TIME (2.6.2012) Investec Derby (Group 1) S1-4 (4:00 P.M. LOCAL TIME) (2.6.2012) Epsom Downs Racecourse - Turf Track - 2409 Metres (Left-handed) For Three-Years-Old. Entire colts and fillies. Weights: colts 126lb; fillies 123lb. Total Prize Money (GBP) £1,325,000 1st £751,407, 2nd £284,875, 3rd £142,570 4th £71,020, 5th £35,642, 6th £17,887. (9 Starters) Expert Column by Wally Pyrah Lucky Numbers for Epsom Derby • 42 Derby winners have been sired by Derby winners. The last was New Approach in 2008 sired by GALILEO. • 36 horses have completed the English 2000 Guineas and Derby double. CAMELOT will be seeking to make it 37. • There have been 15 Derby winners trained in Ireland. The last winner was SEA THE STARS in 2009. • Since 1986 the Derby victor has been in Barrier 10 seven times. The latest was SIR PERCY in 2006. • There have been 14 odds-on Derby favorites beaten in the history of the race. • Since 1965 the favorite for the Derby has won 17 times • No Derby winner has started bigger than odds 8.0 since 1998 • Out of last 15 Derby winners:- o 14 were in the top four of the betting list o 13 were returning to the track within 16 to 30 days of their last race o 12 won their last race, and the other 3 were runners –up o 12 had run between 3 to 5 career races prior to their Derby victory Top European handler Aidan O’Brien has not won the Derby since 2002, where he became only the tenth trainer in the history of the Derby to saddle the first and second – HIGH CHAPARRAL and HAWK WING - in Europe’s premier classic. On Saturday he is represented by two challengers headed by the new equine superstar CAMELOT. This MONTJEU colt, who had a huge reputation before making his successful racecourse debut at Leopardstown, before confirming his lofty status when running away with the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster in October and retired to his winter quarters as a short-priced favorite for the 2012 Derby. He then produced another scintillating performance in the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket last month, coming from well off the pace to take the first English classic of the season. He lines up at Epsom as an odds-on favorite – the last horse to start odds-on at Epsom was another 2000 Guineas winner ENTREPRENEUR who finished fourth in 1997 – and it will be a major shock if he is beaten. Hoping to burst the CAMELOT bubble will be fast-improving and highly-talented BONFIRE - incidentally raised as a yearling in the same paddock at Highclere Stud as CAMELOT. The Andrew Balding trained MANDURO colt won the informative Dante Stakes at York last month – 4 of the last 8 winners have gone on to win the Derby – having chased a really strong pace and then staying on strongly over the last 200 meters. Some pundits believe he might struggle around the undulating gradients at Epsom, but he is a horse with enormous potential and will be many bettors win and place bet. Another Aidan O’Brien challenger ASTROLOGY should not be discounted because he will be considered the ‘supporting cast’ to star CAMELOT. ASTROLOGY – a son of 2001 Derby winner GALILEO – has already stamped himself as a potential Derby winner when strolling away for an 11 lengths all-the-way victory in the Group 3 Dee Stakes at Chester last month. Former champion jockey Ryan Moore takes the ride, and this three-parts brother to 2003 Epsom Derby runner-up THE GREAT GATSBY can be considered to have strong credentials. One horse that should not be left out is MAIN SEQUENCE who has an unblemished record of 4 wins from 4 races. This David Lanigan trained colt – having been added at the second entry stage of the Derby for a cost of around HK$100,000 – proceeded to win a 2000 meters handicap at Newmarket and then stepped up on that form, by taking the Group 3 Derby Trial at Lingfield over 2400 meters on the polytrack surface last month. Of the others, John Gosden’s THOUGHT WORTHY makes most appeal. This relatively inexperienced colt showed his battling qualities when just getting the better of FRANKEL’s half-brother NOBLE MISSION over 2000 meters in a listed race at Newmarket last month. Previously he had finished runner-up to IMPERIAL MONARCH in Sandown’s Classic Trial in April. Gosden, who saddled the winner of the Derby with BENNY THE DIP back in 1997, has always had a high opinion of this colt, and he looks an attractive long-shot. SELECTIONS: CAMELOT, ASTROLOGY, BONFIRE & MAIN SEQUENCE DOUBLE SELECTIONS (18 unit bets): S1-3: Banker – JAMESWAY Selections – JUDGE ‘N JURY, CAPTAIN DUNNE, SOHRAAB & BEAR BEHIND S1-4: Banker – CAMELOT Selections – ASTROLOGY, BONFIRE & MAIN SEQUENCE - 22 - Expert Column by Wendyll Woods The highlight of the two day festival though, is the Group 1 Investec Derby, run over 2409 meters. Billed as the most prestigious race in the world, this eagerly anticipated Classic sees the pick of Europe’s three-year olds, battling it out for a prize of over £750,000. Despite the fact that he has not won the race since 2002, Aidan O’Brien’s runners are always to be respected in the Derby. He already has a stranglehold on the Classics this season, having trained the winners of 1000 and 2000 Guineas. His chance of reclaiming the Derby with CAMELOT is outstanding. John Gosden won the 1997 Derby with BENNY THE DIP and his THOUGHT WORTHY has been the subject of strong support throughout the week in the UK. He is versatile with regards to ground and his win in a Listed context could prove to be very smart form as the season progresses. He’ll need to improve a lot to win the Derby but he’s definitely one to consider. Another interesting contender is MAIN SEQUENCE, who has already provided his trainer David Lanigan with a real breakthrough success when he won the Lingfeld Derby Trial in May. He showed a good attitude to beat off a strongly fancied John Gosden runner, with Derby outsider CAVALEIRO back in third. This is an unbeaten colt who won’t let any of his supporters down on the big day. Whether he has the ability to defeat the top two in the market is another question, but he goes to Epsom with a solid chance of troubling the judge. The Dante Stakes is the most informative and the classiest Derby Trial. The winner is always afforded maximum respect when he lines up at Epsom, and BONFIRE’s taking performance at York in May made him clear second favourite to win the Derby. Had he got better luck in running, he would already be a Group 1 winner when coming home a solid third in the Criterium International at Saint Cloud last season. He has only had three starts to date and is open to improvement up in distance. However, he’ll have to be at his very best to defeat CAMELOT, who looks exceptional. CAMELOT’s stout pedigree always pointed to him being more of a middle distance horse in the making, so the fact that he has already won a Group 1 Classic (English 2000 guineas) at three over a mile, identifies him as a very good young horse. He’s run just the three times and hasn’t been beaten yet, having won the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy as a two year old, on only his second start. He was the subject of glowing reviews over the winter, and didn’t disappoint his supporters at Newmarket last month. He is sure to stay the extra distance and can keep his unbeaten run intact here. SELECTIONS: CAMELOT, BONFIRE, THOUGHT WORTHY & MAIN SEQUENCE DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (3 unit bets): S1-3: BEAR BEHIND, TAAJUB & LONG AWAITED S1-4: Banker- CAMELOT Selections- BONFIRE, THOUGHT WORTHY & MAIN SEQUENCE Tipsters' Selection Julian Muscat Malcolm Heyhoe Anthony Kemp William Hughes (Racing Post) (Racing Post Weekender) (Turf TV) (World Racing Service) 3 Camelot 3 Camelot 3 Camelot 2 Bonfire 9 Thought Worthy 2 Bonfire 5 Main Sequence 1 Astrology 1 Astrology 9 Thought Worthy 2 Bonfire 3 Camelot - 23 - 觀星閱相 岳伯仁 126 莫雅 (7) Lifetime : 4 (2-0-2) Turf : 4 (2-0-2) NH Rules : 0 (0-0-0) 1 2012 : 1 (1-0-0) Non-Turf : 0 (0-0-0) GF+ : － ASTROLOGY (IRE) 3 b c A P O'Brien (Int'l Rating 112) Ryan Moore 1st Up : － Dist : 0 (0-0-0) G : － Galileo (IRE) - Ask For The Moon (FR) (Dr Fong (USA)) Earnings : HK$661,108 Track : 0 (0-0-0) Y : － (11.0) Owner(s): Derrick Smith Trk/Dist : 0 (0-0-0) S/Hvy : － Pos Date Race Details Track Dist/Course/Going Wt. Jockey Dr Race Time Finish & Odds Gear Winner/Second/Third Comments Margin 1/9 11Aug11 2yo mdn LEO, IRE 1600 LH G 126 D McCabe 9 1.41.76 1 2 10/1 Astrology (IRE) 126 settled towards rr: prog on outer to go 4th 1f out: EUR16,320 Turf Canaille (USA) 126 qcknd wl to ld 100yds out and edgd lft: kpt on wl Mannheim (IRE) 126 3/8 20Aug11 Galileo E.B.F. Futurity S. 2yo CUR, IRE 1400 St G 127 D McCabe 8 1.25.50 3 2.5 5/1 Dragon Pulse (IRE) 127 mid-div: 5th 1/2-way: hdwy to chal 2f out and sn G2 EUR95,000 Turf Parish Hall (IRE) 127 led: hdd u.p early fnl f: sn no imp and edgd lft fnl Astrology (IRE) 127 100yds 3/8 8Oct11 Autumn S.