transport.gov.scot Forth Replacement Crossing Project One Year After Opening Evaluation Forth Replacement Crossing Project One Year After Opening Evaluation Transport Scotland Contents 1 Summary of Key Findings ................................................................................ 1 1.2 The Forth Replacement Crossing Project ...................................................... 1 Objectives – Is the Project Moving Towards Achieving its Objectives? ......... 1 Operational Indicators – How is the Scheme Operating? .............................. 2 Forth Replacement Crossing Public Transport Strategy – How well is the PTS operating? ........................................................................................................ 3 Process Indicators – How well was the Project Implemented? ...................... 4 Cost to Government – Is the Project Delivering Value for Money? ................ 4 2 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Project Evaluation .......................................................................................... 5 Project Background ........................................................................................ 5 Project Area Study Map ................................................................................. 7 Report Structure............................................................................................. 9 3 Methodology .................................................................................................... 11 STRIPE Methodology .................................................................................. 11 Establishing the Evaluation Baseline ........................................................... 11 Traffic Monitoring Routes ............................................................................. 13 Data Sources ............................................................................................... 15 Stakeholder Consultation ............................................................................. 16 Stakeholder Consultation – Key Findings .................................................... 28 4 Transport Planning Objectives and Commitments ...................................... 29 Introduction .................................................................................................. 29 Transport Planning Objectives ..................................................................... 29 Commitments – Traffic ................................................................................. 30 Defining the Performance Indicators ............................................................ 31 Basis for One Year After Opening Evaluation .............................................. 33 5 Supporting Public Transport Strategy .......................................................... 34 Introduction .................................................................................................. 34 Background .................................................................................................. 34 Schemes and Measures .............................................................................. 34 Consideration of Medium to Long Term Interventions ................................. 37 Performance of the Strategy ........................................................................ 37 Public Transport Strategy – Key Findings .................................................... 42 Forth Replacement Crossing Project One Year After Opening Evaluation Transport Scotland 6 Process Evaluation ......................................................................................... 43 Scope ........................................................................................................... 43 Outcomes .................................................................................................... 43 7 Operational Indicators .................................................................................... 46 Traffic Analysis............................................................................................. 46 Traffic Volumes ............................................................................................ 46 Journey Times ............................................................................................. 54 Journey Time Reliability ............................................................................... 69 Halbeath and Ferrytoll Park & Ride Sites ..................................................... 73 Opening Year Forecast and Post-Opening Traffic Volumes ........................ 75 Opening Year Forecast and Post-Opening Journey Times .......................... 83 Operational Indicators – Key Findings ......................................................... 90 8 STAG Criteria .................................................................................................. 92 Scope ........................................................................................................... 92 Environment ................................................................................................. 92 Safety ........................................................................................................... 92 Economy ...................................................................................................... 96 Integration .................................................................................................... 98 Accessibility and Social Inclusion............................................................... 102 9 Environment .................................................................................................. 109 Introduction ................................................................................................ 109 Scope and Methodology ............................................................................ 109 Data Sources ............................................................................................. 110 Limitations .................................................................................................. 110 Construction Phase Mitigation ................................................................... 111 Sub-objectives ........................................................................................... 112 Key Findings – Environment ...................................................................... 129 Commitments – Environment ..................................................................... 131 10 Cost to Government ..................................................................................... 136 Introduction ................................................................................................ 136 Public Sector Investment Costs ................................................................. 136 Present Value of Transport Benefits .......................................................... 137 Cost to Government – Key Findings .......................................................... 137 11 Working Towards Achievement of Objectives ........................................... 138 Evaluation Summary .................................................................................. 138 Performance against Transport Planning Objectives ................................. 138 Performance against Forth Crossing Commitments – Traffic .................... 144 Forth Replacement Crossing Project One Year After Opening Evaluation Transport Scotland Performance against Forth Crossing Commitments – Environment .......... 147 Next Steps ................................................................................................. 147 Appendix A: Data Sources .................................................................................. 148 Appendix B: Forth Replacement Crossing - Business Survey ........................ 150 Appendix C: Community Council Questionnaire ............................................... 158 Appendix D: Benefits Realisation Research Public Survey results ................. 192 Appendix E: ....Environmental Mitigation Measures and 1YA Opening Evaluation Findings....................................................................................................................... 230 Forth Replacement Crossing Project One Year After Opening Evaluation Transport Scotland Abbreviations 1YA One Year After 3YA Three Years After AADT Annual Average Daily Traffic BCR Benefit to Cost Ratio BRES Business Register and Employment Survey CV Coefficient of Variation DMRB Design Manual for Roads and Bridges EALI Economic Activity and Location Impacts EDT Employer’s Delivery Team ES Environmental Statement FBOC Forth Bridges Operating Company FCBC Forth Crossing Bridge Constructors FETA Forth Estuary Transport Authority FRB Forth Road Bridge FRC Forth Replacement Crossing HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle ITS Intelligent Transport Systems LRT Light Rapid Transit NPF2 National Planning Framework 2 NMU Non-Motorised Users NTDS National Traffic Data System NTS2 National Transport Strategy 2 PTS Public Transport Strategy PVB Present Value of Benefits PVC Present Value of Costs RSA Road Safety Audit SRTDb Scottish Road Traffic Database STAG Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance STPR2 Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 STRIPE Scottish Trunk Road Infrastructure Project Evaluation TEE Transport Economic Efficiency TPOs Transport Planning Objectives