Reinsurance Market in Russia: Future Outlook Joint analytical report of ARIA and RNRC 1 Summary The reinsurance market in Russia needs a fresh start. The scope of internal reinsurance in Russia is declining progressively. The amount of reinsurance premiums on the internal market in 2015 was RUB 35.2 billion, which is RUB 8.9 billion (20%) less than in 2012. Over the 9 months of 2016, the amount of premiums for accepted risks was 28.8 billion. In 2012-2014, the reinsurance market in Russia was expanding: premiums during this period increased by RUB 23.6 billion (20.5%); but affected by the negative political and economic factors in 2015, the reinsurance market stopped growing and entered a recession phase. During 2011-2015, reinsurance premiums increased just by 2% in 2015, while the growth of prices for insurance services reached 58% according to the Federal State Statistics Service. The Russian reinsurance market is characterized by a low penetration rate. Refusal to cede risks is associated with a few factors: inability to cede risks, conscious refusal to cede risks by insurers and lack of insurers' trust in Russian companies operating on the incoming reinsurance market. Despite the sanctions, the share of reinsurance premiums flowing abroad is increasing. In 2012 to 2015, premiums ceded to foreign reinsurers grew from RUB 79.4 billion to 98.4 billion. The size of the reinsurance market in Russia for the 9 months of 2016 was RUB 28.8 billion, which is equivalent to 3.25% of premiums on the insurance market. According to 2015 data, this figure on the international reinsurance market was estimated at 5%. As such, there is an obvious lack of reinsurance capacity in Russia to afford efficient reinsurance protection. The major reinsurance segment on the Russian market is corporate property insurance which remained stable throughout 2012-2016. The internal reinsurance market in Russia demonstrates a considerable concentration: 40% of premiums are accounted for by two companies – SOGAZ and INGOSSTRAKH. The market share of 10 major companies is 78.8% (9 months of 2016). The establishment of RNRC may give new momentum to development. The entry of a major national player on the reinsurance market may increase the volume of the Russian reinsurance market, improve the efficiency of reinsurance protection, set a new level of standards and facilitate the accumulation of analytical information for insurance and reinsurance of core risks on the Russian market and the emergence of new types of reinsurance operations and contracts. In 2017, RNRC can have a premium income of about RUB 8 billion, and the national reinsurance market can grow by 10% (for the first time in the last few years, the reinsurance growth rate can become comparable with the growth rate of direct insurance). Without the contribution of RNRC, the market growth rate will be within 3%-5%. 2 Dynamics of reinsurance market in Russia The Russian reinsurance market demonstrates a low penetration rate: thus, the market dynamics has a clear descending trend. As compared to 2012, the penetration reinsurance rate in Russia in 2015 dropped by 0.017% to 0.045%. Figure 1 - Penetration of reinsurance in Russia, (reinsurance premiums vs. GDP),% Source: ARIA and RNRC according to the Bank of Russia and the Federal State Statistics Service As compared to 2012, the share of ceded premiums (without personal and CMTPL insurance) decreased notably (by 2.3 pp) during the 9 months of 2016. Figure 2 - Dynamics of premiums for ceded risks (% of written premiums) 2012 2013 2014 2015 9 months 2016 Amount of premiums for ceded risks, RUB billion Share of premiums for ceded risks Source: ARIA and RNRC according to the Bank of Russia The following factors stand out among the reasons for refusal of reinsurance: • inability to cede risks (due to international sanctions) 3 • conscious refusal to cede risks (due to worsening of financial situation in insurance and a lack of available funds) resulting in excessive risks for the capital • increasing the capacity of obligatory programs which help optimize reinsurance costs, because obligatory reinsurance is basically less expensive than facultative reinsurance • concentration of insurance business with major insurers with greater capital, who enjoy lower reinsurance costs in general • presence of scheme-based operations on the internal reinsurance market, with a sharp decrease of their share in recent years • low ratings of Russian insurers The descending trend in terms of premiums was most evident in four insurance segments: aviation hull, marine hull, rolling stock and cargo insurance. The aggregate share of premiums in these insurance segments for ceded risks decreased from 60.4% to 40.5%. Figure 3 - Dynamics of ceded premiums by reinsurance types Rolling stock Aviation hull Marine hull Cargo 2012 2013 2014 2015 9 months 2016 Source: ARIA and RNRC according to the Bank of Russia Despite external constraints, the amount of premiums ceded abroad has increased: 2012 to 2015, premiums for risks ceded to foreign reinsurers grew from RUB 79.4 billion to RUB 98.4 billion. The Russian insurance companies having reinsurance licenses were not markedly affected by sanction risks – generally, the insurance market formed by clients under sanctions is not a trendsetter in terms of the scope of operations among the insurance companies. The only company having mostly sanction-affected clients is Independent Insurance Group providing reinsurance protection for Rostekh and Rosoboronexport state companies. At the same time, there is a noticeable reduction in premiums for risks ceded abroad: in view of the current US Dollar exchange rate, the drop in 2012-2015 was -49% against the nominal growth of 21%. In 2015, the reinsurance market in Russia was only worth RUB 35 billion (in terms of reinsurance premiums), whereby the amount of premiums for risks ceded abroad 4 totaled RUB 85 billion. The growth of outgoing reinsurance can actually be explained by its using as a tool for money withdrawal. By various estimates, 20% to 50% of premiums ceded abroad are not related to any classic reinsurance. Nevertheless, the international markets are still open for Russian companies, even after the negative macro and geopolitical changes. A number of large and medium-size Russian insurers continue active operations on the international market, often without any deterioration of the operating conditions, which can be considered a positive sign for the market as a whole. The examples of major deals with foreign reinsurers made in 2016 are as follows: • AlfaStrakhovanie OJSC made an obligatory fire risk reinsurance agreement for legal entities. The limit of liability is EUR 100,000,000 (or USD 125,000,000 or RUB 7 000,000,000) any one loss, where the liability of AlfaStrakhovanie amounts to EUR 2,000,000 (or USD 2,500,000 or RUB 140,000,000) any one loss. The reinsurers under the agreement are SCOR (leader) — 24 %, Hannover Re — 16 %, Partner Re — 9 %, Swiss Re — 17 % other western companies — 30 %, and major Russian companies – 4 %; • SOGAZ INSURANCE resumed its obligatory reinsurance programs for aviation hull and third party liability of aircraft owners and carriers. The reinsurance capacity for aviation hull business is $50 million, for reinsurance – $1.25 billion. The risks are reinsured through international companies with a minimum “А-“ rating according to Standard & Poor’s. The leaders of the programs are Swiss Re and MS Amlin; • Ingosstrakh resumed its outgoing reinsurance program for engineering risks for 2016. Its Ruble capacity is RUB 6 billion, and the capacity in Euro and US Dollars is 75,000,000 and 80,250,000, respectively. The program leader is Swiss Re; • ARSENAL renewed its obligatory marine risk reinsurance agreement covering vessel hull, ship owner and ship builders’ liability risks. The liability limit under the agreement was increased to USD 20 million. • SOGAZ renewed its obligatory property reinsurance agreement in 2016. The agreement is of multi-currency type, with the liability limits, depending on the currency of the original policy, set by respective sections as follows: USD 225 million, Euro 150 million and RUB 11.25 billion. This is the largest reinsurance capacity available on the Russian insurance market. The agreement is made with a pool of more than 20 leading international insurance and reinsurance companies. At least 92.3 % of the total coverage limit under the obligatory reinsurance program was ceded to companies with a minimum international financial stability rating of “A-“ according to Standard & Poor's and A. M. Best. • Ingosstrakh resumed the outgoing reinsurance program for engineering risks for 2016. Its Ruble capacity is RUB 6 billion, and the currency capacity is EUR 75 million and USD 80.25 million. The program leader is Swiss Re. 5 Figure 4 - Share of reinsurance premiums ceded to foreign companies, % 2012 2013 2014 2015 9 months 2016 Source: ARIA and RNRC according to the Bank of Russia The problem with reinsurance of business under sanctions lies in uncertain status of such sanctions, especially in the European interpretation (this refers, e.g. to production of double- purpose products, sanctioned contractors, suspected qualification for sanctions), which makes it difficult to essentially identify sanction risks. This may cause problems with obtaining indemnity in case of attachment of reinsured risks under conventional (international) reinsurance. The establishment of RNRC will provide a necessary reinsurance capacity for insurers dealing with business exposed to sanctions. Over the 9 months of 2016, reinsurance premiums written in Russia totaled RUB 28.8 billion, which is equivalent to 3.25% of the total premiums written on the insurance market. According to 2015 data, premiums written by insurance companies worldwide made USD 4.55 against USD 0.223 trillion in reinsurance premiums. Therefore, the total figure on the international reinsurance market was 5%.