INSIDE | Future of Some U.S.-Russia Work in Doubt Volume 44 Number 9 Arms Control NOVEMBER 2014 THE SOURCE ON NONPROLIFERATION AND GLOBAL SECURITYTODAY IN THIS ISSUE The Enduring Power of Bad Ideas: ‘Cold Start’ And Battlefield Nuclear Weapons in South Asia By Jaganath Sankaran Preventing Proliferation And Advancing Nuclear Disarmament By Des Browne Getting to Know Capt. Richard Dromerhauser IN THE NEWS Iran, P5+1 Press for Deal In November Arms Control in Syria Declares More Chemical Facilities Congress Leaves Nuclear Issues in Limbo The Near Term Cluster Munitions Plague Ukraine, Syria An Interview With Undersecretary U.S. Mulls Attending Of State Rose Gottemoeller Nuclear Meeting Images Suggest N. Korea Reactor Shutdown U.S. $7.00 A Publication of the Arms Control Association Canada $8.00 www.armscontrol.org 3.23.15 3.24.15 2015 CARNEGIE INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR POLICY CONFERENCE MARCH 23–24, 2015 RONALD REAGAN INTERNATIONAL TRADE CENTER, WASHINGTON, DC Join over 800 government o cials, policy and technical experts, academics, and journalists from around the world to discuss emerging trends in nonproliferation, deterrence, international security, disarmament, and nuclear energy. Register by January 15 for discounted rates. CarnegieEndowment.org/NPC2015 8 Arms Control THE SOURCE ON NONPROLIFERATION AND GLOBAL SECURITY TODAY Volume 44 • Number 9 • November 2014 Features 8 Arms Control in the Near Term: An Interview With Undersecretary of State Rose Gottemoeller Interviewed by Daniel Horner and Daryl G. Kimball The undersecretary of state for arms control and international security discusses a range of issues including U.S.-Russian nuclear relations and progress by the United States in meeting its commitments under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. 16 The Enduring Power of Bad Ideas: ‘Cold Start’ and Battlefield Nuclear Weapons in South Asia 3 Focus By Jaganath Sankaran A Good Deal in the Making Pakistan does not need to pursue development of the Nasr, By Daryl G. Kimball a battlefield nuclear missile conceived in response to India’s “Cold Start” war doctrine. India has not implemented the 4 In Brief doctrine, and Pakistan’s current arsenal already has the capability the Nasr would provide. 5 News Briefs 22 Preventing Proliferation and Advancing Kahl Tapped as Biden Aide Nuclear Disarmament By Des Browne Former Foe Vietnam Cleared for U.S. Arms In his remarks to the Arms Control Association’s annual meeting, the former UK defense minister offers a set of France Delays Arms Delivery Decision recommendations for bolstering and reinvigorating the NNSA Reviewing Nonproliferation Work disarmament and nonproliferation regime. 7 Reports of Note 16 36 Getting to Know November 2014 ARMS CONTROL TODAY Capt. Richard Dromerhauser The man who oversaw the neutralization of 600 metric tons of Syrian chemical weapons aboard the MV Cape Ray tells how the opera- tion came together. Cover photo: Rose Gottemoeller, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, delivers remarks at an event on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty at the U.S. Institute of Peace on September 15. Photo credit: Jackie Barrientes/Arms Control Association 1 24 Arms Control TODAY Volume 44, Number 9 November 2014 A Publication of the Arms Control Association 1313 L Street, NW, Suite 130 Washington, DC 20005 PHONE: 202-463-8270 FAX: 202-463-8273 E-MAIL [email protected] WEBSITE www.armscontrol.org News elections without resolving a host of key nuclear weapons PUBLISHER AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Daryl G. Kimball The Middle East and policy and budget decisions Africa for fiscal year 2015. EDITOR-IN-CHIEF DIRECTOR FOR DISAR- Daniel Horner MAMENT AND THREAT REDUCTION POLICY 24 Iran, P5+1 Press for SENIOR EDITORIAL Kingston Reif Deal in November The World CONSULTANT Jefferson Morley COMMUNICATIONS Negotiators for Iran and six DIRECTOR 32 Cluster Munitions DESIGN AND Timothy Farnsworth world powers are focused on Plague Ukraine, Syria PRODUCTION EDITOR reaching a comprehensive Jackie Barrientes PROGRAM ASSOCIATE Watchdog groups say Shervin Taheran nuclear deal by Nov. 24 and SENIOR FELLOW governments in Damascus FINANCE OFFICER are not discussing extending Greg Thielmann and Kiev are using Merle Newkirk the talks, officials said. DIRECTOR FOR indiscriminate explosives NONPROLIFERATION KROC FELLOW Jonah Aboni against rebels and that most POLICY 26 Syria Declares More Kelsey Davenport of the victims are civilians. INTERN Chemical Facilities Jennifer Ginsburg Syria has declared four 34 U.S. Mulls Attending BOARD OF DIRECTORS additional chemical weapons Nuclear Meeting John Steinbruner Christine Wing facilities, according to UN Chairman Treasurer The United States is deciding diplomats and the Organisation Avis Bohlen Jack Mendelsohn whether to attend a December for the Prohibition of Chemical Matthew Bunn Janne Nolan conference in Vienna on the Weapons. J. Bryan Hehir Hazel R. O’Leary humanitarian impacts of John Isaacs Nathan Pyles Catherine Kelleher Rachel Stohl nuclear weapons use. Michael Klare Jeremiah Sullivan Europe and the Kenneth N. Luongo Paul Walker Former Soviet Union Asia and Australia The Arms Control Association (ACA), founded in 1971, is a nonprofit membership organization dedicated to 28 Future of Some U.S.- promoting public understanding and support for effective Russia Work in Doubt 35 Images Suggest arms control policies. Through its media and public N. Korea Reactor education programs and its magazine Arms Control Although Russia and the Today, ACA provides policymakers, journalists, Shutdown educators, and the interested public with authoritative United States are continuing information and analyses on arms control, to work together on global Satellite images suggest that proliferation, and global security issues. North Korea may have shut nuclear threat reduction, the Arms Control Today (ISSN 0196-125X) is published monthly, future of their collaborative down a nuclear reactor that except for two bimonthly issues appearing in January/February and has been a key part of its July/August. Membership in the Arms Control Association includes efforts after the end of this a one-year subscription to Arms Control Today at the following rates: year remains uncertain. nuclear weapons program, $35 student, $70 individual, $100 international. Non-member sub- according to an analysis by a scription rates are: $65 individual, $85 institutional, with international rates of $95 individual and $105 institutional. Digital-only subscrip- Washington think tank. tions are also available. Please contact the Arms Control Association The United States and for more details. Letters to the Editor are welcome and can be sent via e-mail or postal mail. Letters should be under 600 words and may the Americas be edited for space. Interpretations, opinions, or conclusions in Arms Control Today should be understood to be solely those of the authors 30 Congress Leaves and should not be attributed to the association, its board of directors, officers, or other staff members, or to organizations and individuals Nuclear Issues in that support the Arms Control Association. Arms Control Today Limbo encourages reprint of its articles, but permission must be granted by the editor. Advertising inquiries may be made to [email protected]. Lawmakers left Washington Postmaster: Send address changes to Arms Control Today, 1313 L ARMS CONTROL TODAY November 2014 ARMS CONTROL TODAY Street, NW, Suite 130, Washington, D.C. 20005. Periodicals postage for November’s congressional paid at Washington D.C., Suburban, MD and Merrifield, VA. © Novem- 2 ber 2014, Arms Control Association. By Daryl G. Kimball FOCUS Executive Director A Good Deal in the Making fter extending talks on Iran’s nuclear program beyond Until recently, Iran has sought to maintain its current number the original July 20 target date, Iran and six world powers of operating centrifuges—approximately 10,200—with the op- Aare closing in on a long-term, verifiable, comprehensive tion to increase its uranium-enrichment capacity over time to deal. Such an agreement would block Iran’s potential uranium provide fuel for potential new power reactors. The United States and plutonium paths to nuclear weapons, removing a major and its P5+1 negotiating partners want Iran to cut the current threat to international security for many years to come. number of operating centrifuges for several years and to disable Iran and the six-country group—known as the P5+1 because machines that are installed but not yet operating. it comprises the five permanent members of the UN Security Given Iran’s past actions, suspicion over its nuclear intentions Council plus Germany—have worked out solutions on several is justified, particularly when its uranium-enrichment capacity key issues, including some that appeared to be intractable just a exceeds its needs on the ground. Iran should be willing to ac- year ago. They agree in principle that the design of Iran’s Arak cept a reduction in its enrichment capacity for a period of several heavy-water reactor project can and should be years. This capacity could be allowed to expand modified to drastically cut its output of weap- An effective... in the future if Iran’s needs for enriched ura- ons-grade plutonium and that Iran shall not nium increase. build a reprocessing facility to separate that P5+1 nuclear Reducing Iran’s current enrichment capacity material from spent reactor fuel. by half, combined with a significant reduction Iran is amenable to implementing and agreement with in the size of the country’s enriched-uranium ratifying measures that would strengthen stocks or removal of those stocks to a third coun- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Iran is within try, would increase the time it would take Iran inspection authority. With the option of short- to produce enough weapons-grade enriched-ura- reach. notice inspections of undeclared sites under nium gas for one nuclear weapon to nine to 12 the terms of an additional protocol to its safe- months or more. That is more than enough time guards agreement and with regular inspections of Iranian cen- to detect and disrupt any effort to develop nuclear weapons.