Boko Haram: An Assessment of Strengths, Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options Report to the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office, Department of Defense, and the Office of University Programs, Department of Homeland Security January 2015 National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Based at the University of Maryland 3300 Symons Hall • College Park, MD 20742 • 301.405.6600 • www.start.umd.edu National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence About This Report The author of this report is Amy Pate, Research Director at START. Questions about this report should be directed to Amy Pate at [email protected]. The following Nigerian consultants assisted with field interviews: Bukola Ademola‐Adelehin (Abuja), Kop’ep Dabugat (Abuja and Kano), and Chris Kwaja (Jos). Sadiq Radda assisted in identifying informants and collecting additional published materials. The research could not have been completed without their participation. The following research assistants helped with the background research for the report: Zann Isaacson, Greg Shuck, Arielle Kushner, and Jacob Schwoerer. Michael Bouvet created the maps in the report. This research was supported by a Centers of Excellence Supplemental award from the Office of University Programs of the Department of Homeland Security with funding provided by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) office of the Department of Defense through grant award number 2012ST061CS0001‐ 03 made to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The author’s travel to the field was supported by the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through Contract HSHQDC‐10‐A‐BOA36. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the author and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of SMA, DoD, DNDO, DHS, or START. About START The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is supported in part by the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security through a Center of Excellence program based at the University of Maryland. START uses state‐of‐the‐art theories, methods and data from the social and behavioral sciences to improve understanding of the origins, dynamics and social and psychological impacts of terrorism. For more information, contact START at [email protected] or visit www.start.umd.edu. Citations To cite this report, please use this format: Pate, Amy. “Boko Haram: An Assessment of Strengths, Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options.” Report to the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office, Department of Defense, and the Office of University Programs, Department of Homeland Security. College Park MD: START, January 2014. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................... i Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Data and Methodology ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Contextualizing Boko Haram ............................................................................................................................................................ 2 Geography and Demographics ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 Politics .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 British Colonialism ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Post‐Independence ...................................................................................................................................................................... 4 The Fourth Republic ................................................................................................................................................................... 5 The Nigerian Economy .................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Islam in Nigeria ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Key Dynamics in Nigeria .............................................................................................................................................................. 10 Boko Haram ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Founding and Evolution under Mohammed Yusuf .......................................................................................................... 11 Boko Haram after Yusuf ............................................................................................................................................................... 13 Ideology and Goals .................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Leadership and Decision‐making Structures ................................................................................................................ 15 Recruitment and Membership ............................................................................................................................................. 16 Patterns of Violence ................................................................................................................................................................. 18 Relationships with Other Actors ......................................................................................................................................... 22 Funding .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Responses to Boko Haram .............................................................................................................................................................. 25 Legal Framework ............................................................................................................................................................................ 25 Federal Responses ......................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Security Responses ................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Negotiations ................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Counter‐radicalization and De‐radicalization .............................................................................................................. 33 Victim Support ............................................................................................................................................................................ 37 Developmental Responses .................................................................................................................................................... 39 State and Local Government Authorities ............................................................................................................................. 41 Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Boko Haram: An Assessment of Strengths, Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Evaluation ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Civilian Groups ................................................................................................................................................................................. 42 Non‐Security ...............................................................................................................................................................................