International Evaluation of Public Policies for Electromobility in Urban Fleets International Evaluation of Public Policies for Electromobility in Urban Fleets Study prepared by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) requested by GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation) and the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC). Authors: Peter Slowik Carmen Araujo Tim Dallmann Cristiano Façanha November 2018 FEDERATIVE REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL Presidency of the Republic Michel Temer Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services Marcos Jorge de Lima Secretariat of Industrial Development and Competitiveness Igor Nogueira Calvet Director of the Department of Industries for Mobility and Logistic – DEMOB Margarete Gandini Technical Support Cooperação Alemã para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável por meio da Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH National Director Michael Rosenauer Project Coordinator Jens Giersdorf COORDINATION AND EXECUTION Coordination and operation team Text review and translation Igor Calvet, Margarete Gandini, Ricardo Zomer, Gustavo Victer, Ana Terra Thomas Caldellas (MDIC), Bruno Carvalho, Fernando Fontes, Jens Giersdorf e Marcos Costa (GIZ). Cover and graphical project João Neves Auhtors Peter Slowik, Carmen Araujo, Tim Dallmann e Cristiano Façanha Layout Barbara Miranda Technical coordination Cristiano Façanha and Marcos Costa PUBLISEHD BY Projeto Sistemas de Propulsão Eficiente – PROMOB-e (Projeto Technical review de Cooperação Técnica bilateral entre a Secretaria de Marcos Costa (GIZ) Desenvolvimento e Competitividade Industrial – SDCI/MDIC e Bruno Carvalho (GIZ) a Cooperação Alemã para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável (GIZ) Ricardo Zomer (MDIC) CONTACTS SDCI/Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit Esplanada dos Ministérios BL J - Zona Cívico-Administrativa, (GIZ) GmbH CEP: 70053-900, Brasília - DF, Brasil. SCN Quadra 1 Bloco C Sala 1501 – 15º andar Ed. Brasília +55 (61) 2027 – 7293 Trade Center, CEP: 70711-902, Brasília-DF, Brasil. www.mdic.gov.br +55 (61) 2101-2170 www.giz.de/brasil LEGAL INFORMATION The partial or total reproduction of this document is allowed only if the project PROMOB-e it is cited as source. For other purposes like commercial, duplication, reproduction or distribution of parts or all of this study, the written consent of the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services and GIZ is necessary. The ideas and opinions expressed in this work are from the authors and do not reflect the entire ideological position of the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services or of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors would like to thank all participants in the validation workshop for their important contributions to the document and for the fruitful discussion included in Annex A. For additional information: International Council on Clean Transportation 1225 I Street NW Suite 900 Washington, DC 20005 USA [email protected] | www.theicct.org | @TheICCT LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES-1 | Annual global EV sales from 2010 through 2017 .................................................... 9 Figure ES-2 | Total cost of ownership over 10 years for conventional and alternative bus technology in São Paulo ................................................................12 Figure 1-1 | U.S. light-duty emissions standards and estimated EV sales shares (2015-2030) ........16 Figure 1-2 | Incentive value for battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles and 2016 sales share in major EV markets (Hall et al., 2017a).................................................18 Figure 1-3 | Final price of a Nissan Leaf compared to a conventional Nissan vehicle after the application of import duty and value-added tax ........................................19 Figure 1-4 | Public charging infrastructure and EV registrations per million population by metropolitan area ............................................................................................22 Figure 2-1 | Licensing of new vehicles in Brazil .........................................................................33 Figure 2-2 |Fuel consumption for road transportation by fuel type in Brazil.................................34 Figure 2-3 |Participation of fossil fuels and renewable fuels in road transportation ......................35 Figure 2-4 |GHG emissions from fuel combustion in 2016 in Brazil (OC, 2017) ............................35 Figure 2-5 | Share of sugarcane and biodiesel products in the Brazilian energy matrix ..................36 Figure 2-6 | Estimates of GHG emissions for the transportation sector based on the premises adopted in PDE 2026 ........................................................................37 Figure 2-7 | Brazilian oil balance projections in 2017–2026 (PDE 2026) .......................................37 Figure 2-8 | Brazilian balance of gasoline A (left) and diesel A (right) ...........................................37 Figure 2-9 | Relative emissions by type of source in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (Cetesb, 2018) .....................................................................................................39 Figure 2-10 | Domestic supply of electric power by source (Aneel, 2018) ....................................41 Figure 2-11 | CO2 emission factor of electric power generation (IGES, 2018) ...............................41 Figure 2-12 | Evolution of the installed capacity, by electricity generation source, for the reference expansion (MME, 2017) ..............................................................42 Figure 3-1 | System of governance for electric vehicles in Brazil .................................................43 Figure 4-1 | Sources of funding for the São Paulo public transportation system (SPTrans, 2017) ....55 Figure 4-2 | Battery electric bus (BEB) uptake in Brazil ..............................................................56 Figure 4-3 | Effect of battery electric bus uptake on annual well-to-wheel (WTW) CO2 emissions in Brazil .........................................................................................56 Figure 4-4 | Market share of Diesel buses ................................................................................58 Figure 5-1 | Bus purchase price for electric drive transit buses compared to a conventional diesel bus ......................................................................................62 Figure 5-2 | Energy consumption of electric transit buses compared to a conventional diesel bus..63 Figure 5-3 | Operating costs for alternative technology buses compared to a conventional diesel bus .....................................................................................63 Figure 5-4 | Regular vehicle maintenance costs for electric drive transit buses compared to a conventional diesel bus ...................................................................64 Figure 5-5 | Total cost of ownership estimates over 10 years for conventional and alternative technology for Padron LE type buses in São Paulo ..................................65 Figure 5-6 | Sensitivity analysis for TCO of a Padron LE type bus ...............................................68 Figure 5-7 | Sensitivity of TCO for a Padron LE BEB to bus ownership period ..............................70 Figure 5-8 | Sensitivity of TCO for a Padron LE type bus to annual activity ..................................70 Figure 5-9 | Total cost of São Paulo transit bus fleet replacement for diesel, diesel HEB, and depot charge BEB procurement scenarios under 10-yr and 5-yr replacement schedules .................................................................................71 Figure 5-10 | Lifetime climate pollutant emissions from the São Paulo municipal transit bus fleet under three separate fleet replacement procurement scenarios .......................72 Figure 5-11 | Total lifetime direct and social costs for the replacement of the São Paulo municipal transit bus fleet under three procurement scenarios ...............................73 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1 | Summary of government promotion actions for EVs .................................................10 Table 1-2 | Summary of international clean vehicle and fuel regulations ......................................14 Table 1-3 | Summary of international consumer incentives for EVs .............................................17 Table 1-4 | Summary of international charging infrastructure programs for EVss .........................21 Table 1-5 | Example of electric carshare, ride-hail, taxi, urban delivery, and bus fleet initiatives....25 Table 1-6 | Summary of international planning, policy, and other EV promotions .........................28 Table 1-7 | Summary of government EV promotion actions in selected areas ..............................30 Table 1-8 | Innovative EV support actions and example cities ....................................................31 Table 3-1 | Examples of consumer incentive initiatives in Brazil ..................................................31 Table 3-2 | Governmental references for electromobility ...........................................................49 Table 4-1 | Targets for the reduction of pollutants established in the São Paulo Climate Law ........52 Table 4-2 | Current and future installed capacity of electric and hybrid buses in Brazil .................58 Table 5-1 | Components of total cost of ownership (Miller